A Critique of Kunstler's Vision of Doom

[KingM34]

Best-selling author James Kunstler appeared before the Green Mountain Global Forum last week to launch a broadside against American culture and taste, while noting gleefully that the American way of life is about to crash, due to the coming tsunami of peak oil, the point at which petroleum will grow ever more expensive and rare until it strangles our economy.

In a sense, Kunstler is right. We are addicted to oil, consuming ever greater amounts every year. We have foolishly built our communities so that cars are necessities, not luxuries. Outside of certain core urban areas, it is almost impossible to live without owning an automobile. Modern roads and highways open new lands to sprawl, which creates the need for more roads and then more sprawl and so on.

But oil became our fuel of choice for a more primary reason. Petroleum is both energy dense and available in huge quantities in the earth’s crust. As soon as it became available in bulk, it quickly set about replacing coal as a transportation fuel and a means of generating much of our heat and electricity.

But being useful does not mean that it is infinite. Some economists criticize the peak oil theory with classic economics saying that the main driver of price has been supply and demand. This may be so, but oil is a fixed geologic commodity. There may be a pool of oil the size of Lake Champlain waiting to be discovered somewhere, but the consensus among geologists is that there are few large oil discoveries left to be made and that future oil will be drawn from increasingly remote or politically hostile locations or be of lesser quality.

Read the rest: http://theopinionator.com/energy/kunslter_critique.html

[pstans]

1. I have been reading Kunstler for a few years now

I do think that he sometimes overblows the sitation, but he may do that to try and scare us to actually do something to improve the situation. Kunstler has the ability to shed some humor on a freightening topic and is entertaining and informative to read.

[KingM34]

2. It's humor, but...

It is funny, but it's gallows humor and I wonder what good it does. How is someone standing on the outside lobbing grenades into the discourse going to help? Even his blog is called ClusterF***K Nation.

I think most of us love this country in spite of what has become of it and we'd like to see it changed. Not destroyed.

[pstans]

3. I don't think Kunstler hates America

I don't think Kunstler hates America and wants to see it destroyed. I think he points out that we heading towards a cliff at 200 mph. Thinking about going over that cliff is a scary thought. Kunstler discusses this tough situation in a way manner people would...with humuor. Peak Oil will require our way of lives to change. I have read Kunstler say that the life after the oil crash won't be worse than life now. It will just be lived on a smaller scale. He certainly doesn't want to see America destroyed. He wants to see America start to make changes to our lifestyle, so that we survive.

[Strelnikov_]

4. Compared To Simmons Latest Presentation, Kunstler Is A Cornucopian

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches

'The Energy Crises Has Arrived'

Middle East oil production will not rise any longer.
My educated hunch of future decline:

. . . . Crude Oil Only Mbbl/dy
. . . . . . .2006 2012 2018
Saudi Arabia 8,000 5,000 3,500
Iran . . . . 3,200 2,200 1,500
Iraq . . . . 1,800 1,200 800
Kuwait . . . 2,200 1,600 1,200
UAE . . . . 2,200 2,100 2,000
Oman . . . . 800 500 300
TOTAL . . .18,200 12,600 9,300

Twilight (peaking of Middle East oil) marks twilight for the world!
- No region in the world is ever likely to replace
this gap.
- Finding several North Sea replicas will take
decades.
- By 2020, the current 80+ mb/d base could be
reduced to 25 mb/d. (Schlumberger’ 8% per annum estimated global decline)