My prediction about Nov 06: Dems come up 8 seats short in house,

[CAG]

4 seats short in Senate, and despite picking up significant seats, wholloping repubs in most individual races, that ol' librul media will declare 1) that the dems lost the 06 elections and 2) the fact repubs retained power in both houses was a resounding vote of confidence for the Cheney administration. The public will yawn and return to their couches to watch the rest of football season, while 1) several thousand troops that 95% of the public do not personally know continue to be sent into operation "stay the course," and 2) their annual 12% increase in health care premiums continue unimpeded. Then, of course, that ol' librul media and the public will complain about the dems not doing anything.

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

[Warpy]

1. If the Dems don't get their heads out of their fat asses and

start to campaign on kitchen table issues, you bet that will happen.

Business as usual and "we're not quite as bad as they are" are not great motivators.

[bullimiami]

2. probably lose 100 seats in house and 30 seats in senate.

when voting machine rigging get out of control.

but of course noone does anything about it and the crooked results stand.

[Moloch]

53. You're right. Lets not vote.

We should just accept the fact that we are always going to lose elections. It is all Diebold's fault.

We definately won't win with your defeatist attitude.

[MADem]

3. Here's my prediction: We take one house, maybe both

I'm optimistic. I plan on working to get people to the polls.

I hope everyone else does the same.

[readmoreoften]

7. Wow, someone who still believes that voting will win out.

Good for you. I'm going to get the vote out, but only so we can prove it's stolen more easily.

[still_one]

8. I am tired of the pessimism. you have the right attitude

it won't be because of the party why we win, but because of people like you and me. As long as we come out in numbers we win

[rodeodance]

18. so will I wouk to get them to the polls.

[still_one]

4. thank you Nostradomus

my prediction is that the democrats will win AT LEAST ONE HOUSE, but not because of anything the party has done, but because of the screw ups of the republicans

[Blue-Jay]

5. I shall consult first with Nostradumbass.

[saltpoint]

6. In the Senate I think we hold Minnesota narrowly, and pick up

Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, & Montana.

Wild card possibility, but uphill climb: Tennessee.

Wild card possibility, very steep but still do-able: Virginia.

I'm a little worried about Washington.

[HopeFor2006]

9. We will hold on to Minnesota, no doubt.

Swing state my :kick:

[saltpoint]

12. I like the sound of that, HopeFor2006. It sounds really good.

Go, Minnesota Dems. Land of Wellstone.

[Robbins]

10. 2006

My prediction Is we narroly take the House and we have a 5050 Senate by holding onto our seats,
picking up Missouri,Ohio,Montana,Pennsylvania,and Rhode Island. We have a majority of Governorships.
The Press say because we didn't take the Senate It Is a victory for stay the course. Expect some
Dems and Repuks to announce their candiatys for President before the end of the year. My prediction
on that Is Biden,Fegingold,Warner,Edwards on the Democrats side,and Mccain,Guillania,Romney,Frist
on the Republicans side. The rest announce after the new year.

[saltpoint]

15. Hi, Robbins. I'm late with this, but please accept a tardy

welcome to DU.

Good predictions.

You mentioned Rhode Island, and I had forgotten all about that one. It's very close right now, so I think you're on to something there.

Yep -- I bet there will be some announcements after the elections. In some cases it may depend on which party controls one or both chambers, but I think you're right -- the announcements are probably being drafted right now.

[Hawkeye-X]

11. Washington will remain in Dems hand.

Here's a darkhorse upset - Peterson over Kyl, when his s00persekrit scandal gets unleashed in September.

[saltpoint]

13. I'd meet a Kyl defeat with SCREAMS of elation.

You'd hear glass shattering from the Berkshires to Bakersfield.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

14. You've Got It EXACTLY Right....

They will "let" the Democrats win just enough seats in each house, to make it look legit, but not enough to change control of either.

The media will do as you say, but it hardly matters, as it will mean 2 further years of control, as they draw up their plans on how to win the presidency again in '08.

Dictatorships only work when it stays the same. They will NEVER allow the Democrats to get control of ANYTHING.

[Robbins]

16. Senate

I think based on the way the odds are looking at a 5050 senate. In 2000 we did very good In senate
races. If there Is a upset which gives us a narrow majority It will come In Arizona or Virginia,or
Tennense. I myself think Webb or Peterson will do a upset than Ford. I also think we may get a
majority of governoships but we need to be prepared for Schwareneger to pull It out In California.

[Erika]

20. Why don't you post on how hated W is?

Out of curiousity.

[AndyTiedye]

40. Dictators Don't Care

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

48. W Isn't Running Again....

King george already "Fixed" his 2 elections. I think everyone here knows that he could care less what is thought about him. He's in it for the power and the $$$$$. What the people want? What the people think of him? That's sort of irrelevant to King george at this stage of the game.

[Thorn]

17. It's simple...

Friends don't let friends vote republican. If you have republican friends, don't press their face into the mess like some might do when training a puppy. That is the wrong tact to take with your dog and your friends. Calmly discuss the issues in their presence and they are likely to begin to see clearly. I personally see them as brainwashed by the media they probably watch. No one likes to be told they're wrong on matters of thought.

[Erika]

19. Why shouldn't they be challenged on their thoughts?

Are the bushbots so sensitive that they should be handled with kid gloves? Hey, they backed the worst president this country has ever had and they need to be held accountable. Something the GO rarely does.

[Thorn]

25. but...

I'm talking about in the case of friends.
I've tried the calm discussion method and it works. That's all. I find that republicans don't like to debate. They take it as personal criticism.
If they're totally a lost cause, then push their face into it.

[Erika]

27. confront them with facts

why wish to put anyone's face anywhere. They have anncoultergeist for that.

[Thorn]

29. like I said

I'd rather discuss with my friends than confront. People make mistakes. No one likes to be confronted with a slap in the face and told they're an idiot. How would you react to that? I think reaching out to those close to us is a valid strategy. If we can all turn just one, then it would make a huge difference, as long as they fix the electronic voting problem.

[AndyTiedye]

41. I Have Tried It Without Success

Mind you, there are so FEW Republicans around here (and even fewer in
my circle of friends) that I don't get much practice.

[Crazy Guggenheim]

21. We should be mobilizing our base. Not trying to reach out to the Repubs!

[Erika]

24. Our base is doing fine

The GOP are the ones trying to define us. You can tell by their posts.

[Thorn]

30. Why not?

Why would you be against increasing the base? Who would you reach out to, Democrats?

[Crazy Guggenheim]

31. Because if a Republican has to be convinced he won't be convinced.

Yes I would reach out to Democrats and get them to the polls.

[Thorn]

32. Democrats are already on our side.

We're looking at the probability of a massive swing vote to our side. I think you're saying all Pubs can't be convinced and I don't agree.

[Crazy Guggenheim]

33. Swing vote hmmmm. I'm saying that a lot Democrats feel let down after

2004 and you have to get them motivated. Yes give up on the Repubs. Take care of our own first!

[Thorn]

35. Ok then, you work on getting out the vote

and I'll work on some converts. I think we want the same thing, an end to this regime of corrupt power.

[Crazy Guggenheim]

37. Ok. But I think you're wasting your time. But still good luck.

[Sugarcoated]

38. I tried my damnedness to convert people

to find out in the end they voted for Bush after all. My younger brother, who I thought I had, he just revealed to me he wrote in a candidate instead of voting for Kerry. I don't know if I swung them to bush somehow or if it they were all just lost causes. I tried to talk issues, maybe I came on too strong? who knows.

[AndyTiedye]

42. If They're STILL a "Swing" Voter Today…

…then they are still being "swung" by stuff like abortion and gay marriage,
and there is no hope for them.

[Erika]

22. Why your pessimism? n/t

[CAG]

55. It takes everything, and I mean everything, to go right to swing so many

seats of both the house and the senate in any off-presidential election year. I don't consider the fact that my prediction that the dems generally win most of the individual battles and pick up seats in both houses to be pessimistic.

Are we going to say we lost the election if we come up with repubs owning the senate 51-49 and the house by a couple?? If so, we fall right into the propaganda trap that the corporate media wants.

[Clarkie1]

23. If you were working for me I'd fire you.

Get ahold of yourself. We are going to win.

[AndyTiedye]

44. Do You Only Employ Those Who Tell You What You Want to Hear?

[Clarkie1]

45. No, only those with a positive attitude and some degree of confidence. nt

[AndyTiedye]

46. But If YOU Were Working for ME

I'd want you to back up your claim with some explanation as to
why this time was going to be different.

We were supposed to win in 2004.

We were supposed to win in 2002.

We were supposed to win in 2000.

Confidence and a positive attiude are not enough.

[Awsi Dooger]

47. By what measure?

Maybe simplistic subjectivity. That's always a wonderful world to prance around in.

Bush may not have won legit if all the votes were counted in 2000, but he was a -190 favorite on election day. In 2002 the betting numbers soared toward the GOP a day or two before the election, in terms of winning the congressional vote. And Bush was the same -190 favorite in 2004 as in 2000.

This year we're currently favored to pick up seats but not regain control. But I'm sure I can depend on the same DUers to claim we "should" have won 8 senate seats and 40 house seats minus Diebold. They'll have very little explanation for the gov races, where we finally reclaim the majority.

[Clarkie1]

52. No, you tell me why you think it is not going to be different.

That's like a losing baseball team in the world series saying, gee, in the past we lost a few games against this other team so I guess we should just give up the championship.

You have offered no evidence for the view expressed in the OP.

[CAG]

56. I'll repeat what I just said to a post above you: I don't consider the

fact that my prediction that the dems generally win most of the individual battles and pick up seats in both houses to be pessimistic.

Having said that, hoping we take both houses is different than sizing up the odds and determining what your gut tells you. I would hope any person "working for me" would be optimistic yet realistic, tell me what they felt, instead of what they think I want to hear. People who only want to tell the boss only what they want to hear, hmmm, just about sums up the Cheney administration, doesn't it?

Are we going to say we lost the election if we come up with repubs owning the senate 51-49 and the house by a couple?? If so, we fall right into the propaganda trap that the corporate media wants.

[CK_John]

26. Indictment of House members will begin to kick in shortly.

This and gas prices near $4.00 by Labor Day will help us take the House. I don't feel as sure about the Senate. Depending on how interesting local elections will be to help turnout. Midterms turnout is usually low.

[Erika]

28. W and the GOP have been in power for 6 miserable years

Where they have pretty well destroyed this country economically and prestige wise. They also have destroyed our middle class and hurt our poor. No, I want no more of the bastards.

[CornField]

34. And my spidey sense is tingling with the news

that you've done little to affect the outcome of the future you've already perceived. Sad.

[Thorn]

36. Nice.

[CAG]

57. Wow, you don't even know me, so tell your spidey sense to kindly

STFU.

Now, can we move on without the personal insults of people you know nothing about?

[CornField]

59. My spidey sense isn't the one cursing.

It is often the defenseless who jump to defend the indefensable with offensive language when confronted with the truth of their words and deeds.

Help out with canvassing?
Run any GOTV efforts in your area?
Planning a fundraising event for your local candidates?
Seeking any local offices which can be used to springboard state and national candidates?
Doing anything of real-life substance?
No?

It appears I'm not the one who needs to STFU.

[neoblues]

39. The Truth Hurts.

But I don't see sufficient reason to think anything significant is going to change. We've failed to deal with the unverifiable electoral system. Despite public disillusionment with Republicans, there's not much to indicate they're going to swarm over to the Democrats in sufficient numbers. If there's hope, it's probably that maybe enough of them will stay home on election day--enough so that the Republican disenfranchisement and electronic voting bonus won't be able to handle the difference. If we do luck out, it's going to be close.

We simply haven't done enough and there's not much time left for our efforts. While there is alot of time yet, in terms of Republican dirty tricks--which don't take much time, for Republicans to tar the leading Democrats wherever they feel they're in danger. They still control the media as well. We simply can't sit back and feel confident just because Bush is relatively soggy in the polls and that other polls show majorities now support Democrats (we don't know anything for sure; they may be influenced in an intentional attempt to create a false sense of security in Democrats)--and besides, polls don't necessarily translate into votes.

We can't give up at any point, even if we don't succeed this November--but we'd damn well better double and triple our most energetic efforts to win across the board. Still, in no way should we be feeling confident until we have already won.

[upi402]

43. Too many of our elected Democrats are silent

Too many are part of the corporatocracy. I have faint hope unless we go to precinct meetings and donate to challenging nominees. Even against a Dem incumbent who is Dem In Name Only. (Republican)

I'll keep fighting too. Always have to, never let up cuz they are tirelessly trying to grab it away from us. And we were seduced by the pro-business line and have nearly lost our republic.

[VaYallaDawg]

49. I'm hoping for a Dem majority in at least one house.

Going to put my money and my vote where my mouth is too.

[WI_DEM]

50. so are you saying that dems pick up only 2 seats in senate and

6 or 7 in House. I think they will do much better than that. I'm not sure they will win either house but I can see where maybe in the Senate it will be up to Cheney to decide it.

[CAG]

58. I certainly hope my gut feeling is wrong :-) nt

[Hamlette]

51. it isn't lousy Dems OR rigged voting

it's a rigged system where 98% of incumbents win reelection.

Think about why that is.

Fix the gerrymandering.

[Cleita]

54. It's probably too late for this coming election, but if we go to

work nationwide, we could have an honest election in 2008. We have to, starting at the precinct level, insist on a paper ballots even if it's going into a scanner or being punched into a touch screen. Three teams, consisting of one team of Republicans, one of Democrats and the third of independents and represenatives of all other parties, would count every vote by hand to verify the machine totals. First insist on a paper ballot even if it's going into a scanner or a touch screen.

If there is a nationwide organization of this in every precinct you will have verifiable results. Why count by hand? Because it's good accounting. Every business and bank verifies their machine totals with a manual count. No well run business accepts the totals on the machines. The machines just give you figures to balance against with a hand count. We should be doing this with our elections.

This is what Bev Harris and BBV should have been working towards doing instead of enriching herself and doing a little spot check here and another spot check there