How North Korea got nukes ON DUBYA'S WATCH

[AirAmFan]

Washington Monthly explains how NK has gotten nukes on Dubya's watch, just the way Bill Clinton's successful antiterror policy was dismantled the first nine months of Dubya's watch.

On 'This Week w Steph' this morning, Peter Beinart of the New Republic was the first talking head I heard recently point out that N Korea got nukes on Dubya's watch, because Dubya's WH abrogated the Clinton-Carter deal that held NK back from the brink. Sen Chris Dodd (D-CT) briefly touched on the same subject on "Face the Nation".

Here's a great article from Washington Monthly that's more expansive:

From http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2004/0405.kaplan.html :

"Rolling Blunder: How the Bush administration let North Korea get nukes.

{In addtion to centrifuges}, ... the North Koreans had another route to nuclear weapons--a stash of radioactive fuel rods, taken a decade earlier from its nuclear power plant in Yongbyon. These rods could be processed into plutonium--and, from that, into A-bombs--not in years but in months. Thanks to an agreement brokered by the Clinton administration, the rods were locked in a storage facility under the monitoring of international weapons-inspectors. Common sense dictated that--whatever it did about the centrifuges--the Bush administration should do everything possible to keep the fuel rods locked up. Unfortunately, common sense was in short supply. After a few shrill diplomatic exchanges {in 2002} over the uranium, Pyongyang upped the ante. The North Koreans expelled the international inspectors, broke the locks on the fuel rods, loaded them onto a truck, and drove them to a nearby reprocessing facility, to be converted into bomb-grade plutonium.
The White House stood by and did nothing. Why did George W. Bush--his foreign policy avowedly devoted to stopping "rogue regimes" from acquiring weapons of mass destruction--allow one of the world's most dangerous regimes to acquire the makings of the deadliest WMDs?...

The pattern of decision making that led to this debacle--as described to me in recent interviews with key former administration officials who participated in the events--will sound familiar to anyone who has watched Bush and his cabinet in action. It is a pattern of wishful thinking, blinding moral outrage, willful ignorance of foreign cultures, a naive faith in American triumphalism, a contempt for the messy compromises of diplomacy, and a knee-jerk refusal to do anything the way the Clinton administration did it....

Bill Clinton, a president not known for hawkishness, nearly went to war against North Korea in the spring of 1994. Five years earlier, during the presidency of George Bush's father, the CIA had discovered the North Koreans were building a reprocessing facility near their nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. It was this reactor that, when finished, would allow them to convert the fuel rods into weapons-grade plutonium. Now, barely a year into Clinton's first term in office, they were preparing to remove the fuel rods from their storage site, expel the international weapons inspectors, and withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty...

... on Oct. 21, 1994, the United States and North Korea signed a formal accord based on those outlines, called the Agreed Framework. Under its terms, North Korea would renew its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, lock up the fuel rods, and let the IAEA inspectors back in to monitor the facility. In exchange, the United States, with financial backing from South Korea and Japan, would provide two light-water nuclear reactors for electricity (explicitly allowed under the NPT), a huge supply of fuel oil, and a pledge not to invade North Korea. The accord also specified that, upon delivery of the first light-water reactor (the target date was 2003), intrusive inspections of suspected North Korean nuclear sites would begin. After the second reactor arrived, North Korea would ship its fuel rods out of the country. It would essentially give up the ability to build nuclear weapons...."

[BadgerKid]

1. And the 2004 debates

(I'll trim the post down if the Mods flag it)

From the 9/30/04 presidential debate.

LEHRER: Senator Kerry, 90 seconds.

KERRY:....
With respect to North Korea, the real story: We had inspectors and television cameras in the nuclear reactor in North Korea. Secretary Bill Perry negotiated that under President Clinton. And we knew where the fuel rods were. And we knew the limits on their nuclear power.

Colin Powell, our secretary of state, announced one day that we were going to continue the dialog of working with the North Koreans. The president reversed it publicly while the president of South Korea was here.

And the president of South Korea went back to South Korea bewildered and embarrassed because it went against his policy. And for two years, this administration didn't talk at all to North Korea.

While they didn't talk at all, the fuel rods came out, the inspectors were kicked out, the television cameras were kicked out. And today, there are four to seven nuclear weapons in the hands of North Korea.

That happened on this president's watch.

Now, that, I think, is one of the most serious, sort of, reversals or mixed messages that you could possibly send.

You want to continue the multinational talks, correct?

BUSH: Right.

LEHRER: And you're willing to do it...

KERRY: Both. I want bilateral talks which put all of the issues, from the armistice of 1952, the economic issues, the human rights issues, the artillery disposal issues, the DMZ issues and the nuclear issues on the table.

LEHRER: And you're opposed to that. Right?

BUSH: The minute we have bilateral talks, the six-party talks will unwind. That's exactly what Kim Jong Il wants. And by the way, the breach on the agreement was not through plutonium. The breach on the agreement is highly enriched uranium. That's what we caught him doing. That's where he was breaking the agreement.

Secondly, he said -- my opponent said where he worked to put sanctions on Iran -- we've already sanctioned Iran. We can't sanction them any more. There are sanctions in place on Iran.

And finally, we were a party to the convention -- to working with Germany, France and Great Britain to send their foreign ministers into Iran.

.....

KERRY: ..... What I worry about with the president is that he's not acknowledging what's on the ground, he's not acknowledging the realities of North Korea, he's not acknowledging the truth of the science of stem-cell research or of global warming and other issues.

And certainty sometimes can get you in trouble.

................................................

LEHRER: Just for this one-minute discussion here, just for whatever seconds it takes: So it's correct to say, that if somebody is listening to this, that both of you agree, if you're reelected, Mr. President, and if you are elected, the single most serious threat you believe, both of you believe, is nuclear proliferation?

BUSH: In the hands of a terrorist enemy.

KERRY: Weapons of mass destruction, nuclear proliferation.

But again, the test or the difference between us, the president has had four years to try to do something about it, and North Korea has got more weapons; Iran is moving toward weapons. And at his pace, it will take 13 years to secure those weapons in Russia.

I'm going to do it in four years, and I'm going to immediately set out to have bilateral talks with North Korea.

LEHRER: Your response to that?

BUSH: Again, I can't tell you how big a mistake I think that is, to have bilateral talks with North Korea. It's precisely what Kim Jong Il wants. It will cause the six-party talks to evaporate. It will mean that China no longer is involved in convincing, along with us, for Kim Jong Il to get rid of his weapons. It's a big mistake to do that.

We must have China's leverage on Kim Jong Il, besides ourselves.

And if you enter bilateral talks, they'll be happy to walk away from the table. I don't think that'll work.

.......................................................

Now, I'd like to come back for a quick moment, if I can, to that issue about China and the talks. Because that's one of the most critical issues here: North Korea.

Just because the president says it can't be done, that you'd lose China, doesn't mean it can't be done. I mean, this is the president who said "There were weapons of mass destruction," said "Mission accomplished," said we could fight the war on the cheap -- none of which were true.

We could have bilateral talks with Kim Jong Il. And we can get those weapons at the same time as we get China. Because China has an interest in the outcome, too.

LEHRER: Thirty seconds, Mr. President.

BUSH: You know my opinion on North Korea. I can't say it any more plainly.

........................................................

http://www.debates.org/pages/trans2004a.html

[Olney Blue]

2. Fast forward to 2006: Kim Jong Il has tested long-range missiles

and the Chimp is suddenly at the table.

Yes, Kerry was right on NK, as in every other point in the debates.
:grr:

[AirAmFan]

3. Destabilizing Asia with a cascade of nuclear buildups

Thanks for that URL and debate snippet. I had forgotten that Dubya's WEIRD, WRONGHEADED North Korea policy dates from before the debates. What a complete moron!

Here's the scariest pragraph from the URL I included in the Original Post:

"The worry isn't merely that this strange, totalitarian power will have nuclear weapons--it's also what other powers may do as a result. If North Korea gets a handful or more of atom bombs, many believe that Japan will drop its historical restraints and build atom bombs, too, as a deterrent. A nuclear Japan could galvanize China to restart its long-dormant nuclear weapons program. China's buildup could trigger escalation by India, which would compel Pakistan to match warhead for warhead. All Asia could find itself embroiled in a nuclear arms race."

The chance that a madman would launch a first strike (like Col Jack Ripper in Kubrick's "Dr Strangelove") is very slim for any particular nuclear launch site. But given enough nuclear proliferation, tha chance of an eventual nuclear launch somewhere approaches certainty. Thanks Dubya! Thanks again, Condi!

[Roland99]

4. Bush CUTS AND RUNS from diplomacy!

[walldude]

5. According to Greg Palast in Armed Madhouse

Bush was warned that Dr. A.Q. Kahn, the father of the Pakistan atomic bomb was selling his weapon secrets to N.K. and Libya. The messengers were told that it was "all in their imagination". Bush then expressed total shock when Kahn was ratted out by Gaddafi.

[AirAmFan]

6. Could Dubya's fixation with petroleum help explain his brain-damaged NK

policy?

Rereading the last paragraph of the Washington Monthly snippet in the Original Post, the words "HUGE SUPPLY OF FUEL OIL" caught my eye. Try to put yourself inside Dubya's tiny confused head for a moment. I remember one weird press conference when Dubya used the words "entrapped gas" with eerie entusiasm. How would he respond to the notion of giving hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil to an "evil one"?

[Strelnikov_]

8. Yes. The NK HydroCProf Ratio Was Minimal

My read on NK v Chimp:

1) Pulled out of ABM treaty to proceed w/ 'Star Wars', payola to M-I backers.

2) Did not want to do negotiations w/ NK, that was a Clinton (re: pussy) thing to do (always seemed to me like a good idea to keep talking to the psychotic neighbor, though). Also needed an 'enemy' for above 'missile shield'. Oh, also, they don't have any oil or natural gas.

3) Operation ignore for the last 5 years (other than passing propaganda efforts, axis of evil, all that). They don't have any oil or natural gas, after all.

4) Now, due to neglect, the psychotic neighbor is waving a gun around the neighborhood. What to do? They don't have any oil or natural gas, after all.

5) Operation denial now in full implementation mode 'What nuclear weapons, can you prove it' 'We need all parties involved in talks' 'This whole missile test thing really surprised us' 'Now Iran, there's a treat. They could have a weapon in, say, 10 years, yeah, that it. They also have oil and natural gas being held hostage' 'Did I mention NK has no oil or natural gas'

They have blown it, they know they have blown it, and they are shitting their pants as evidenced by the manic response from the administration over the last week. China and Russia are now rubbing his nose in it.

And, outside of talking, bribing, whatever, there is nothing we can do, not when they can rain 500,000 shells an hour onto Seoul and the surrounding area from hardened gun emplacements (re: caves).

[caligirl]

7. Good one to save for 2008.