Are we in a depression...

[butterfly77]

and certain sectors of the country don't know it yet?

[Selatius]

1. Double the unemployment figure released by the BLS

That should give you a more realistic appraisal of the situation in the US, and that should put us on par with Germany and France as far as unemployment goes, but unlike the US, the government spends money more on social programs and infrastructure than on national defense and war.

[fordnut]

20. unemployment rates

don`t tell the real number because they do not count a person that is not drawing unemployment checks.

[butterfly77]

24. and the bush administration will lie about the ..

umemployment numbers if they did

[brmdp3123]

30. That's true, but...

it's been that way for a looong time. Maybe forever.

[lastliberalintexas]

80. Not true- *this* administration changed the calculations

Even his daddy was more honest in calcualting the unemployment rate.

[brmdp3123]

86. How so? Do you have sources? A link.

I'd be interested.

[Greyhound]

96. The best study I've found is on a subscription site for economists

http://www.weedenco.com/

Unfortunately, it ain't cheap, but there is a guy that posts in the Economy forum pretty regularly that has access.

In the best analysis I've seen, he has backed out all of the fudges and blatant lies that every administration going back to Kennedy has used to skew the numbers, and came up with a real unemployment rate of 12% - 15%, and real inflation of 8% - 11%.

His name was Welling and, unfortunately, he just died.

[brmdp3123]

109. Interesting-but

as you said-'every administration going back to Kennedy has used to skew the numbers'.

My original comment stands.

[Greyhound]

113. I posted that for your edification only,

I'm the last person on the planet that will defend the politiwhores of either party. I am in the camp that thinks it will not get better until it gets much worse.

[unda cova brutha]

2. It sure seems like it to me

I have been depressed since 2000.

[butterfly77]

4. join the club we have many members

[snappyturtle]

38. We are in the same boat......

my husband is an artist/home builder.....you know the type. The guy that will spend hours doing what his customer is dreaming....and DO it! Plenty laud his praise.....but because he doesn't shuffle papers all day in the banking, legal, or in a political way, his value just doesn't seem to be as high as those paying him.......and they are cheap so and so's if you were to ask me! I see him come in from work.........back and bones killing him...........his homes appraise way out ahead of the mortgages and yet...........it seems to me, people who know how to really do or make something, are getting the shaft in this country. Will the tide ever turn? I know this sounds like a pity party.......not meant that way.....sorry.

[shrike]

54. My DH is thinking of getting out of that business

He's not an artist (like yours) but he does remodeling and repair and takes tremendous pride in his work. His rates are more reasonable than anyone else around. He'll do the job until it's done right, and he won't charge anyone for his time on the road, or any time he spends having lunch, having a cup of coffee and chatting with the homeowner. Also, if it takes him much, much longer to do a job than it should (and feels it's his fault), he won't charge the homeowner the extra time.
Well, some people appreciate him, but most folks don't. They want to use the absolute cheapest materials (which he hates) and pay him as little as they can absolutely get away with. THEIR time is worth a million bucks, but his is not. Plus, it's getting very expensive to run around and get parts (gas and all.) And no, they won't pay him mileage and (some) get outraged if he adds the cost of gas to the parts.

[snappyturtle]

57. Frustrating, isn't it? nt

[butterfly77]

67. Doesn't look that way I saw some furniture builders ..

on television and they were talking about they were going out of business because the furniture was coming from china or japan. I can't remember all of the details but it was mainly about outsourcing.

[FloridaPat]

9. Same here.

[deaniac21]

3. We have long soup lines here in Arkansas and I think

unemployment is at around 20%.

[butterfly77]

5. There is plenty of that going around but...

the protective media won't report anything until it touches their family and friends and comes to their neighborhoods.

[Greyhound]

98. The M$M won't ever report it as they are owned by the beneficiaries

of our clusterphuk economy. You'll see millions of people living in vast "Hoovervilles" receiving UN food drops before they will be allowed to say a word.

[tech3149]

6. I know I am!

How's it on your end?

[butterfly77]

8. Terrible and it seems to be getting worse...

homeless,foreclosures, soup kitchens, and crime

[snappyturtle]

40. It's going to get worse....

wait until the ARM's rates change.................I forcast there will be many forclosures. It's a diaster waiting to happen.

[butterfly77]

68. But it won't be reported until the majority of the country ...

feels it all the way or neocons and their families.

[Davis_X_Machina]

7. In a flood, the tall guys drown last...

...and in this country, the tall guys own all the papers and broadcast stations.

So there's not even a recession.

[butterfly77]

11. But, these tall guys will be shaking in their boots at the rate..

things seem to be going

[femrap]

43. short person bites ankle of tall person....

yum. Let's eat.

[porphyrian]

10. Future historians will say so. - n/t

[Deja Q]

12. Article I saw today said things were great.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,203044,00.html

That article takes the cake.

They talk of competitiveness. But the only thing competitive corporamerica cares about is how low something costs. Therefore, the reality is that the US can only continue to plummet until corporamerica realizes it needs to put back into America too.

And I want to help make America great again and will be more able to the instant my debt is paid off. Maybe I can afford college if I squeeze things a bit, but the margin will be thin.

I'm even exercising again.

It is something to look forward to.

Especially if these articles are even remotely serious about rebuilding/improving America.

[butterfly77]

15. Well maybe I need to jump on the bandwagon too..

since we have a lot to look forward to:sarcasm:

[tom_paine]

32. Exercise is always a good option during impending Totalitarianism

You may think I'm joking, but the hell if I am.

I've got a saying "Fat Men can't run from the Gestapo."

Of course what is unsaid in that quote, by necessity, is what is most significant.

[Swamp Rat]

65. "Fat Men can't run from the Gestapo."

:rofl: So true! :D

[Clarkie1]

13. You are joking, right? nt

[conflictgirl]

14. In some areas, definitely

The unemployment rate here in Michigan is supposedly only 6 percent, but I don't believe it reflects the true number of unemployed at all. I know more people *personally* than I can count on both hands and feet who have been unemployed for so long that their unemployment benefits ran out long ago. They're still applying for jobs and just not getting anything.

Delphi used to be one of the big employers in this area. They recently announced that they're hiring 500 temp workers - long-term temp of an unspecified duration (could be a month, could be years), no benefits, $14 an hour. They had more than 5000 applicants for 500 jobs. That should give you some kind of indication of the job market around here. According to the local paper, people were coming from 50 miles away to apply for these temp jobs.

There are parts of the country where the economy is still doing well and if you only ever saw those places, it would be easy to retain the illusion that the country's economy is booming. But if you look at the number of people whose unemployment benefits ran out long before they found a job, or the number of bankruptcies and foreclosures, the rising number of people on food stamps, the exponentially increasing number of people without health benefits, etc - you can see that we're living in this century's version of the Gilded Age.

[butterfly77]

16. I agree...

I live in Michigan and I am trying to get feedback about what is going on in the rest of the country.

[conflictgirl]

18. Well, I used to live in Texas...

Dallas/Fort Worth area. According to many of my friends who still live there, the job market isn't looking so great there either. Unless you're a teacher, or looking for a job at Starbucks.

[butterfly77]

27. That is why I believe that some are coming to the realization that..

the bush administration is lying and some don't care because they only look at their own pocket books

[readmoreoften]

31. How are teachers faring well??? Just wondering.

I mean, there are so many graduates in early childhood ed and only so many teaching positions. And most of the ISDs in Dallas are really good. And lord knows it isn't the college teaching market getting hired.

[conflictgirl]

44. According to my sister-in-law they need teachers there

She's a teacher for the FWISD. My husband and I used to live there and I talked to her recently about how he wanted to go into teaching, but the job market for teachers here in MI is horrible. She said that they're pretty desperate for elementary and secondary teachers there, and that they're even taking people without certification and offering emergency certification and high starting salaries (for the field, at least). She said that after Katrina, there's been a major influx of students into schools that were already bursting at the seams.

I'm considering teaching at the college level myself and I've been following the national job market for professors, and it certainly isn't great anywhere. :(

[raccoon]

48. And even if they do get hired (college teaching market),

it's for adjunct faculty positions.

Another euphemism for "part-time."

[conflictgirl]

73. Absolutely

I am going to grad school in a year and trying to decide between following my passion, which would be sociology, or going for something more employable, which would be library science. I'd love to teach sociology at the college level and I would be great at it, but the majority of the jobs I've seen are for adjunct or short-term positions. With student loans and kids, I just can't justify going to school longer if I'm not going to be able to get a full-time job.

[ChiciB1]

17. Depressed And Plenty Worried About THE Depression, If It's

not here now, it will be very soon!

[butterfly77]

19. I believe it has been slowly moving to certain sectors of country..

and along with gas prices and other factors this is why bush's numbers have went down in the polls.

[ChiciB1]

23. I Know Far Too Many People Who Are Really Getting Worried

where I live in Florida. And where I live in Florida is #3 per capita in income in the state of Florida! That says something to me!!

Sarasota County has always been known as "high end" even though I've never fit into THAT category... just live here.

[snappyturtle]

39. May I ask.....

what worries them? What are they seeing that is the problem? Just dooing a little comparison here. Thanks.

[snappyturtle]

41. What are the people you talk about.....

worried about? I am genuinely interested in what specifically "worries" them.....not trying to be an ass or anything.

[raccoon]

49. One thing you can take to the bank, the corporate media, the

pundits, the administration, will NEVER, NEVER use the "d" word.

[WI_DEM]

21. the old saying is "a recession is when your neighbor loses his job

and a depression is when you lose your job" is very true.

[butterfly77]

28. It seems to be spreading..

[Vidar]

22. Michigan sure as hell is!

[mnhtnbb]

25. I have a MI friend who I hadn't heard from in a while Her story:

Last summer she was laid off.
They had been living on her salary. Her husband has had health problems--between that and the crummy automotive job market, he hadn't worked steadily since 3 years ago. Her mother died. Her unemployment benefits wouldn't even cover COBRA. Their house went into foreclosure. Her father had a second stroke. They filed for bankruptcy. She FINALLY got a job in May--that's almost a year on unemployment. Her husband is still recovering from back and leg surgery last December. They moved to a rental house, put their house on the market and are hoping it might sell before Oct/Nov when the bank takes it over so they might get something out of it.

Yes, Bushie, let's hear how great this economy is!

[New Government]

26. Severe economic conditions....but no depression.....

When one says, "depression" most of us think of "The Great Depression." Now THAT was a depression. We are not the least bit close to that. Labels mean nothing anyway. Let's just say it's damned bad - especially for those who must work for a living. I have read an ARC of Thom Hartmann's latest book and I recommend it highly.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1576754146/qid=1152743573

[MazeRat7]

29. No we're not, but I can see how the Henny-Penny's would think so...

What's a recession? How do we know if we're in one? How is that different from a depression?
There’s an old joke among economists that states:

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.

A depression is when you lose your job.

The difference between the two terms is not very well understood for one simple reason: There isn’t a universally agreed upon definition. If you ask 100 different economists to define the terms recession and depression, you’d get at least 100 different answers. Lets try to summarize both terms and explain the differences between them in a way that almost all economists could agree with.

Recession: The Newspaper Definition
The standard newspaper definition of a recession is a decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more consecutive quarters. This definition is unpopular with most economists for two main reasons.

First, this definition does not take into consideration changes in other variables. For example this definition ignores any changes in the unemployment rate or consumer confidence. Second, by using quarterly data this definition makes it difficult to pinpoint when a recession begins or ends. This means that a recession that lasts ten months or less may go undetected.

A better definition is that recession is time when business activity has reached its peak and starts to fall until the time when business activity bottoms out. When the business activity starts to rise again it’s called an expansionary period. By this definition, the average recession lasts about a year.

So how can we tell the difference between a recession and a depression? A good rule of thumb for determining the difference between a recession and a depression is to look at the changes in GNP. A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent. A recession is an economic downturn that is less severe.

By this yardstick, the last depression in the United States was from May 1937 to June 1938, where real GDP declined by 18.2 percent.

If we use this method then the Great Depression of the 1930s can be seen as two separate events: an incredibly severe depression lasting from August 1929 to March 1933 where real GDP declined by almost 33 percent, a period of recovery, then another less severe depression of 1937-38. The United States hasn’t had anything even close to a depression in the post-war period. The worst recession in the last 60 years was from November 1973 to March 1975, where real GDP fell by 4.9 percent. Countries such as Finland and Indonesia have suffered depressions in recent memory using this definition.

Hopefully this will help clarify the differences between a recession and a depression so you wont have to ask the question again. That being said... we are in neither... a downturn yes.. but that is all.

;)

Hope that helps....

MZr7

[skids]

33. GDP is hardly a figure to hang your hat on.

There are so many problems with using the GDP as an indicator:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product#Criticisms

Most egregious in my mind is that in a country that trades as much as we do, not factoring in forex renders the measurement totally meaningless.

(Using the dollar as a solid base seems to be a sin committed daily by even the most prominent economists.)

[SensibleAmerican]

34. Not with 4.5% unemployment

We're definitely in an inflationary period though.

[snappyturtle]

36. I wouldn't believe that number.....

4.5 % unemployment...........we MUST include those who have, because of the span of time, were dropped off the rolls. I'm in northern MN, resort area, and I'm here to say things have changed---A LOT! We just don't see the number of tourists we used to see even though this area is a lot more appealing than it used to be as far as those things tourists would be interested in.

Also, just got a phone call from a friend who had traveled to California and back. Said he stopped in Yellowstone National Park and there were vacancies. My son worked there all last summer at Canyon Inn and a year ago vacancies weren't the norm. Is it gas prices? or people just doing poorly? I'm scared.....we have our building for sale and had a good showing today BUT.....we need to get out of here............soon.

It's my most humble opinion that a depression may be what this country needs to get back to where we were before this administration took control.....anyone agree with that or am I loopy?

[B Calm]

37. Employers rarely pay unemployment compensation these days. So

without records at the unemployment office of who is unemployed, it's damn hard to know the truth.

[sandnsea]

47. That isn't how unemployment is calculated

It's a household survey that has nothing to do with anyone being on unemployment.

And yes, employers pay into unemployment compensation. Where do you live because I truly would be interested if there's a state where businesses have collectively just stopped doing that.

[B Calm]

75. Indiana and Illinois

[Ravenseye]

56. If we measured unemployment the same way we did in the depression...

...it would be higher now. Over 12% nationally at a minimum.

[Richard Steele]

58. That "4.5%" is nowhere near the truth. More like 12.5. nm

[butterfly77]

70. Agreed and with the layoffs at Intel ...

they are laying off or firing 1,500 or more.

[butterfly77]

69. Thats a fake statistic...

it is not 4.5 some more of bush and his gangs lies.

[Greyhound]

99. Hate the hit-and-run propagandists. n/t

[Skelington]

35. If you have to ask, then you are, however

I think everybody has the ability to change that, it may not be easy but there is always a way.

Now I'll be scolded for my optimism.

[conflictgirl]

45. Please tell me how

My husband has been unemployed for six months, and he's certainly trying. I am working freelance and I've seen a major slowdown in the payment times from my clients. I'm not sure how I have the ability to change that. :shrug:

I'm not going to scold you for your optimism, but I'd wager a guess that you haven't faced long-term unemployment recently.

[Skelington]

53. Well, let me so bold as to try and answer.

First, I have no idea what your husband's situation is, ...what he does, where you are, what you do, who your clients are, what you freelance etc etc. So before I offend, I'm telling you up front that I am reaching in the dark to answer you.

Here is my guess from your response to me. I assume that your family is educated, responsible, and organized. I say this because you have made it for 1/2 a year on no income from your husband, and "spotty" income from your clients, few business ventures could survive a 60%-75% loss in funding, and without sounding vile, that is the honest truth about living married in the modern world, it is to a large degree a "joint venture project". I assume you have been living on savings, and/or investments, 401k etc, because after 6 months of living on credit cards with no income I doubt you would still be on the internet.

Faced with the type of personal financial challenges you describe, in conjunction with the solid foundation of financial responsibility I assume you have, I offer this response: I think possibile recovery ideas have already come up, and that between the two of you there is or at least was a light at the end of the tunnel. However, after 6 months of financial depression, the gauranteed "shell" game that has to be played with bills and the embarrassement of believing that somebody will think you are a failure because of job loss makes it easier to becaome one of the masses that believe that there is nothing in your control that can be done. So things like DU become a comfortable, reassuring blanket, assuring you that you have tried everything you can, it's not in your control, and that if you just hold the status quo somebody will offer a chance to be delivered from hardship, and a return to the properous days. The people that care most about you, are the ones that tell you, you CAN bounce back, you MUST bounce back, and push and push and push, because they care.

There is no answer that can be given to the effect of do ABC and everything will be ok, children have that luxury, adults don't. In 6 months will you look back to now and ask why did this happen to you, or will you brag about accomplishment. The people who re-enforce your hoplessness, and support your depression are the ones to be ware of, misery loves company.

I know how you must feel, I have felt GREAT depression, I have suffered GREAT loss, made some monumental mistakes, and generally fucked things up more than once. But my wife and I are still here, my son and his wife are in overdrive to keep chuggin' but they become more indestructable with every hardship overcome. Anybody can point out reasons you are in trouble, assign blame, and welcome you into the "doomsday" fold, I believe you can oversome your troubles, and I believe you already know how.

[raccoon]

55. So if a person can't overcome their troubles, it's their own fault?

Sure sounds like that's what you're saying.

:puke: Give me a break!

"I believe you can oversome your troubles, and I believe you already know how."

Gee, since it's so easy, why is anyone in financial difficulties? :sarcasm:

[Skelington]

59. If you don't help yourself..who will?

Or would you rather blame Bush, the Iraq war, Republicans or what ever other reason comforts you. Bitching and complaining will only get you so far, eventually you either have to DO SOMETHING, or just keep complaining.

I take it you have no idea how to help yourself, so you will wait for somebody else to do it for you, and in the mean time make full use of your limited talents by offering nothing but insults, and blame. Good luck, when you move out of your parrents house you will need it.

[raccoon]

61. Odd that when you answered Butterly, you kept sayaing

I don't know you, blah blah, and now you think you know everything
about me.

Begone, disruptor.

[Skelington]

64. Jump down off your soap box for a second,

and remember YOU are the one who jumped in with you petty comments, and barfing icons, YOU are the disruptor, YOU are the "enabler" that only finds security in gathering as large a pity party group as possible.

I don't know you any better than Butterfly, but your comments, and attitude tell me I don't need to know you, or want to. You are not that deep a person to "get". Go pick on the kids down the block, it will make you feel stronger, you are in over you head here.

[elehhhhna]

74. SKel, you're getting an asswhuppin but I GET YOU. Totally.

Keep your chin up. We're hard on newbies sometimes...Welcome to DU, which should NOT stand for Gloom & DUme.

[Skelington]

77. That was fucking riduculous !

I'm guessing Raccoon NEEDS to be around people who are suffering hardships, and difficulty because it's the only way he can justify his doom and gloom lifestyle. I don't get people who balk like this over being told the truth. Hell, I wasn't even answering him, but Raccoon strikes me a prime example of someone who will sit, fold thier arms and cry and bitch about everything that is wrong is thier life, and how it is somebody else's fault, how there is nothing he can do about it, life is unfair WAAAAAAAA! Rather than grow up and realize that life is in no way fair, and sometimes the only way to get back on your feet is to FU@^ING stand up yourself, and that's just tough turnips!

Raccoon doesn't have what it takes to bring me down, I'm just stunned every time I run into someone like that, his idea of "progressiveness" is childish in my eyes, life is a rough freaking sport, mommy isn't always there to make things ok, or to make things fair.

Thanks, sorry for rambling.

[elehhhhna]

78. a friendly suggestion?

edit ref's to other posters (Rac) or you'll be in trouble, 'kay?

[Skelington]

82. Not sure what you mean.

I'll get in trouble for talking about someone else, who was involved in a conversation with me? Will do.

Thanks, it's always nice to hear a friendly voice.

[elehhhhna]

84. slapping others indirectly (versus in a heated exchange) is a nono.

You'll get the hang of it.

[Skelington]

85. Thanks again, take care. n/t

[conflictgirl]

72. So far we're making it through frugality and unemployment income

Luckily we have no current debt other than our mortgage, so that has largely gotten us through.

I understand your point that there are more things within our own control than most people think. But at the same time, unemployment is unemployment - you can't make people hire you. And unfortunately there does seem to be a stigma associated with unemployment, that after a while people are less likely to call back for interviews because they wonder what's wrong with you that has led to such a long period of unemployment.

We are reasonably self-educated, but neither of us has a four-year degree yet. I guess our light at the end of the tunnel is very long-term, because I am back in college and my husband is returning this fall. But as for short-term strategies, if my husband still hasn't found a job by the time his unemployment runs out next month, I have NO idea what we'll do. We don't have credit cards to fall back on or much savings left. Resourcefulness and self-determination only goes so far.

[Skelington]

83. Resourcefullness, determination and desire,

are your best tools when the light at the end tunnel seems as far away as the stars in the sky. I wish you the best of luck, life can certainly kick you when you are down, but what is the alternative? I wish I had a bag of magic tricks to solve problems, crap, if I did I would have used it long ago, but I gaurantee that if you keep hold of the one you love, and lean into the wind as you keep trying, you will get back on top.

Resoucefullness, and self determination are like a sword and shield, use them in the struggle back to the top, without them I would feel helpless.

[Lorien]

87. "I gaurantee that if you keep hold of the one you love, and lean into the

wind as you keep trying, you will get back on top".

Oh really? How are you going to back up this "guarantee" of yours? Just how many hours a day is faux news on in your household?

I'm a self motivated business owner. During the Clinton era I pulled in $150,000 a year and had a fat nest egg. No, I don't work in a dot com related industry. I contract for a number of large corporations who cater to the middle class. Since the Bush administration stole the office in 2000 (yes, stole.I worked at a polling place in Florida, and I saw the theft first hand. You can read about it in Greg Palast's book "the best Democracy money can buy") I've seen unemployment in my field skyrocket. The corporations I work for are taking advantage of hard times by slashing what they pay contractors (almost down by half of what they paid seven years ago). They're also outsourcing many white collar jobs to India and China, and delaying payment to contractors by UP TO A YEAR. Last year I went eight months without being paid a damn thing-but I still worked 14 hours a day for these corporations because there were no other jobs to be had. Some of my colleagues brought lawsuits against them because they could no longer live without their paychecks, they got paid, but no longer have their clients. On top of that my health care costs have doubled, gas and food prices have increased (what do you expect when you put a group of oil profiteers in control of the nation)? and I had to have a life saving surgery that my insurer refused to cover; now I'm $18,000 in debt. I'm currently finding NO work with any of my many clients because ALL of them are significantly cutting back production for the year. Why? Because "the middle class no longer shows purchasing power due to a lack of disposable income". Hmmmm....wonder why?

I'm working odd jobs, trying to alter my business to attract new clients, and selling my valuable on eBay. I'm single, so I won't be "holding on to the one I love", I'm "leaning into the wind", but I don't consume illegal hallucinogens or watch Fox news, so I have no illusions that I'll suddenly find myself "back on top". That would require a healthy middle class with a disposable income in this country, and the middle class is swiftly becoming an endangered species. It would also require that our government no longer encourage the corporate outsourcing that is causing so much unemployment among working American professionals-and that won't happen anytime soon, either.

Back to work.

[Skelington]

89. never mind, you're right WE ARE ALL FUCKING DOOMED !!!!!!!!!!!!

THERE IS NO POINT IN TRYING, FUCK IT, THE SKY IS FALLING,BUSH RUINED MY LIFE, I'LL NEVER BE WHOLE AGAIN, I CAN'T DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT, I'LL JUST SIT HERE AND FUCKING CRY UNTILL SOMEBODY ELSE WIPES MY ASS.

there do I "fit" in DU now?

[Batgirl]

93. Such a compelling argument

So, any acknowledgement of the struggle that great numbers of people are currently experiencing in these hard economic times = crying "until somebody else wipes my ass?"

The small business I worked for had to shut its doors more than a year ago and I've been making ends meet between freelancing and getting a low-paying second job at night. My husband and I both know scores of people who are trying to survive by cobbling together multiple part time jobs with low pay and no benefits. Yet you would savage us for wanting to discuss how we are coping with the evaporation of the middle class, apparently because the comments do not contain enough self-congratulatory sis-boom-bah such as this gem:

"Resoucefullness, and self determination are like a sword and shield, use them in the struggle back to the top"

Your grandiose shit-spewing indicates you are the one in need of a profound ass-wiping.

[Skelington]

95. Youre right too,

why try to depend on yourself? just gather a band of people together and all agree that encouragement is useless. self pity and hoplessness are for the truly "enlightened".

I'm actually done pretty well, I have time to sit and get a bunch of angry comments by people who feel hoplessness is the only truth. I'm retired, I have a long life full of wonderfull memories, and horrible loss, and I would have been lost without my wife, and my son, I'm glad I didn't have an encouragement lip flapper like you around for a kind word. Like I said to the other one, your'e right, fuck it, don't try anything, you won't succeed anyway, you can't, you don't have what it takes, it's hopeless.

[Skelington]

92. OH I almost forgot,

before you get to far into your self perscribed pity fest, and trying to counter my silly advice, remember I WASN'T EVEN FUCKING TALKING TO YOU.

So my advice, or words of encouragement really are stupid, I agree with you, you're fucked, why even try to give yourself a word of encouragement? just lay down and revel in your hopeless situation, bathe in the warm glow of your doom that is sure to help.

[Batgirl]

94. But you didn't offer any "advice"

Just vague, self-laudatory grandiosities holding yourself up as a shining example, combined with trashing people who are struggling, don't qualify as "a word of encouragement" either.

[Skelington]

97. I've gotten SEVERAL, negative BULLSHIT comments,

from people I wasn't even talking too. My advice to you is just give up, there is no point in hope anyway, at least not for people who don't or can't hope any more.

I agve an example using myself because it is true for me, but not for you. You are doomed, don't bother trying anything, hoping for anything, or even exploring the possiblity that you can make a difference in your own life. YOU CAN'T, I did in mine, and I have had a wonderfull full life to show for it. Too bad you are fucked, maybe in the next life you will get the cards you wanted, or think you deserved.

[Batgirl]

100. I guess it's not a prerequisite to actually read a post

before typing out your response. Once again, your comments bear little relation to what was stated.

I specifically mentioned the steps I've taken (freelancing, working the night shift) yet your response is that I'm not bothering to try anything, "or even exploring the possibility that you can make a difference in your own life."

But don't let that stop you from repeatedly trumpeting about your own fabulousness. Carry on I say! You da bomb!!

[Skelington]

105. Keep trying, but it's hopeless,

all you really have time for is to cry "WHAT ABOUT ME", you didn't solve "MY PROBLEMS, FOR ME". Hope and determination are qualities lost on your generation, no matter what you do it will never be enough, you can always enjoy a good dose of failure, you will always have a good reason to question even an attempt at encouragement, because it's more comfortable. Like I said before, misery loves company and I'll bet you have LOTS of friends who re-enforce your hoplessness for you.

I'm off to forget that you most likley don't have enough life experience under your belt to know what true hardship really is, and I hope you never do. After you graduate, your real-life education will begin.

[Virginia Dare]

102. Not yet, but we're heading that way....

the crisis in the Middle East may yet be the final straw.

And in response to the posters who claim that we have control over the situation I say bullshit. There is not a fucking thing we can do about it. Have you been paying attention to what Congress has been doing for the last 5 years? They've been busy covering the banking industry's ass. Rich people have been busily preparing themselves like squirrels before winter.

Yes, there might be a few things you could do to better position yourself for the eventual fall, i.e. get the fuck out from under your debt, but for most people they are so far gone this is impossible. What about all the people out there that are paying on their $40,000 gas-guzzling SUV's? How about the people that are paying on interest-only mortgages?

Remember when they kept telling us to spend, spend, spend, that the economy was just peachy? Run your credit up, buy those 50 inch high def plasma T.V.'s, we'll give you credit, no problem. Well, that was the equivalent to Ken Lay telling his employees to keep buying Enron stock.

The bottom line is, the vast majority of us are SCREWED, and there's not a DAMN THING WE CAN DO ABOUT IT!

[Bridget Burke]

103. You aren't "talking" to anybody.

You're posting on the Internet. Anybody else registered at DU can post a reply.

[Skelington]

106. It isn't even talking,

It's a race to see who can be the most infalmatory first, in an attempt to sound "informed". My Son got me to start looking at DU because he said it was full of progressive minded people. I thinks it's full of children arguing over who has been screwed most, when in reality life right now is not as bad as they would hope it to seem.

[Lorien]

107. You obviously didn't read what I wrote

I am very much occupied with remedying my situation. I'm still working 14 hours a day, seven days a week, rebuilding my career. What do you do other that blow RW talking points?

You also have a lot to learn about public discussion boards. Everyone can reply to your posts. If you don't like that fact, then I suggest that you use the PM feature.

[raccoon]

50. Yes, please tell us how.

"I think everybody has the ability to change that"

[Lorien]

88. *Crickets*

I, for one, would certainly like some specifics.

[Skelington]

90. NO NO you have made me see the light, there is no room for encouragement

on this web site, let's all just fucking lay down and cry ourselves back on top. Or better yet, when someone tries to offer some kind of encouragement lets just fucking shit all over them in our own self deluted prison cell of self pity.

Don't try anything, you won't suceed anyway, there is no point, just bitch yourself to sleep tonight, tomorrow is a new day full of self pity, and hopelessness.

[Bridget Burke]

104. Someone asked DU'ers to clean up our language & got many laughs.

However, I'd suggest you expand your vocabulary a bit. And you're such a fine family man!

[Skelington]

120. I don't use this language around the house,

it's disrespectful to my wife, but I don't think the people who have responded to my posts give one rats ass about respect. the primary goal has been to convince me how impossible it is to do anything to improve ones own life, it's bullshit, so fuck it.

[Lorien]

108. Once again, no specifics

just more self righteous, predicable RW talking points. :eyes: The only self pity I see is in your posts "everyone is being sooo mean to me"! Give us a freaking break.

How about something constructive? Like demanding that our government fine corporations for shipping white collar (and many blue collar) jobs overseas instead of rewarding them? Who is going to buy all that Chinese crap when a significant portion of the nation is unemployed? That would be a positive ACTION we as a nation could take towards maintaining our status in the world.

[Skelington]

118. You are not even on the right subject now,

This crap started over the so called "depression" we are in. Go skip a meal for peace with Cindy, this BS started when I tried to offer a little encouragement over another posters unemployed husband , and her financial woes.

[girl gone mad]

42. I think we could be headed that way.

The booming real estate sector has been holding up our economy over the past few years, but people are maxed out and interest rates are rising. Overheated markets are already seeing big price declines. The 'ownership society' is looking more and more like a scam to pass development costs on to consumers using increasingly risky mortgage products.

[sandnsea]

46. Generally, no, not anywhere near

There are pockets where the economy is horrific, parts of Michigan and Ohio. Right now, it isn't even as bad as it was in the late 70's when you couldn't even get a job at a 7-11 and prices just kept going up and up and up. And that wasn't even a depression like the 30's Depression. People better count their blessings because it can get a damn site worse than this. Of course, it was a damn site better than this just a few years ago too.

[theboss]

63. The comparison to seven years ago is the shock

Historically speaking, the current economic conditions are typical. Some indicators are good; some are bad.

But what the country went through in the late 90s was so remarkable that any return to normalcy is going to look bleak.

[Imajika]

51. Not even close...

n/t

[spinbaby]

52. A local economic indicator

Pittsburgh area. The local Goodwill has closed a couple of stores and removed several freestanding collection centers because of a "nearly 30 percent decline in donor traffic and a lessening of quality donations at these sites within the past year."


http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06166/698386-85.stm

[earth mom]

60. I've noticed a decline in stuff at our local Thrift Stores.

They just aren't what they used to be a year or two ago. I think people are trying to sell their own stuff via garage sales or ebay or craigslist, instead of donating it all to the thrift stores. When times are good and people are working who wants to bother having a garage sale or selling one item at a time on ebay or in the classifieds?! The only reason the area I'm living in is hanging in there is that there are a lot of equity rich people moving up here from California, Arizona, Nevada and elsewhere who have bumped up the local economy some. Though mainly the influx of money has helped the McMansion builders, car dealers and a handful of upscale shops.

I'd bet big bucks-if I had em that is-that the rest of the people around here are clinging to the boat, hoping the bottom doesn't fall out... :(

[theboss]

62. No

A depression is a measurable thing.

[Greyhound]

101. Care to try at a definition?

I don't think we will ever see another depression in the sense of the Great Depression of the 30's again, simply because the game is different and they've changed the verbiage. That doesn't mean that we aren't seeing the same scenario being played out.

[A HERETIC I AM]

111. What is happening now is NOTHING like what was happening in the late20's

Wild speculation, unregulated shortselling resulting in intentionally reducing stock values along with a drought in farming regions and multiple bank failures. There is NOTHING LIKE THAT HAPPENING NOW.

Talk of the current economic conditions as being like a depression is just that - talk.

[Greyhound]

112. Seems to me that we do have wild speculation, and a near total lack

of regulation, irrational valuations, etc.

I never said it was like the 30's at this time (yet?), but raygun and his cronies (90% of the current cabal) successfully removed the safeguards that were on place to prevent another crash. Remember '87? The outright fraudulent Fed report that was released to sucker $$$ back into it?

[A HERETIC I AM]

115. There have been plenty of regulations imposed to keep '87 from happening

again. NYSE Rules 80A & 80B enacted after the crash of '87 institute "Circuit Breakers" to interrupt and halt volatile market trading by shutting off computerized trading at a certain loss or gain percentage and also by shutting down the market entirely for specified periods for specified percentage changes.

Suggesting that the Stock Markets don't have well thought out controls and regulations designed to avoid such things is incorrect. The markets are regulated to a MUCH higher degree today than they have ever been.

[Greyhound]

116. The markets are manipulated to a much higher degree, not regulated,

and including an auto-shut off is just a means of slowing a collapse down, and allows the rest of the markets to back out or prop up the NY exchange, as they see fit, during the suspension.

'87 was a real market reaction, the subsequent lies put out by the fed to save it in no way changed the reality.

[area51]

66. I believe we are.

Anyone who's tried to get a job in this economy knows that jobs are few & far between. I think the best measure of whether an economy is in a Depression or not, is: are good jobs being created. Obviously, they are not. Joblessness, crime, homelessless, foreclosures and soup lines have increased every year since POS Bush stole the White House. Sociopath Bush's father only caused a recession; Jr. has managed to cause the 2nd Great Depression.

[butterfly77]

71. I agree but some will say it is not depending on their ...

circumstances and not others but as soon as it hits them or their families these are the main people who almost lose their minds, commit suicide and want to take everyone else with them because they are miserable and can't deal with it.

[A HERETIC I AM]

110. Your "Best measure" isnt even close

"I think the best measure of whether an economy is in a Depression or not, is: are good jobs being created."

Ummmm...nope, not even close.

When unemployment is 25% and the value of a dollar plunges to the point that it is worthless THEN you'll have a depression.

What is happening now is just a plain old correction.

[Greyhound]

114. I am curious, is that fact that the USD has been devalued by over

96% since 1913, close enough to worthless?

[NewJeffCT]

117. the dollar rose in 2005

The dollar actually rose against most major currencies in 2005, after going down from 2001-2004. It is going back down this year, but it has not gone off of a cliff yet. China and Japan have way too much to lose if the dollar collapses. (BTW, if you look at the banking system of China, it is very similar to our banking system in the 1920s – it’s not pretty.)

Inflation is rising, and so are interest rates, but neither are anywhere near where they were in the 1970s and early 1980s.

Job growth has been pathetic the past 5 years, and the jobs that are being created are generally not good ones. The job growth is barely keeping even with population growth. However, in a recession, the amount of jobs created is either negative, or is well below the rate of population growth. That is just a recession, let alone a depression.

Our country has over $7 trillion in debt due to the reckless “borrow & spend” fiscal policies of Reagan & Bush. Our GDP is somewhere around $12 trillion, meaning our debt is over half. Our debt is far larger than any other country in the world, but that is also due to the massive size of our economy. Check out many of the countries of Europe and Asia and see what the ratio of their debt to GDP is - I will guarantee you that many have even worse ratios than ours, with some even having more debt than their entire GDP. The scale is just different, because the second largest economy (Japan) has a total GDP of less than half of our GDP.

Thank goodness that FDR and Truman led us out of the Great Depression, and even Ike was not a reckless steward of the economy. They have provided such a strong base for our economy that it has been very difficult for Reagan & Bush to rip it down… And, Clinton was able to reverse some of Reagan’s abuses.

While our economy is certainly not good, or even mediocre, we’re not even in a recession yet – let alone a depression.

[Hidden Stillness]

76. Yes, but Now It Can't Even be Measured

Being in Michigan, I am well aware that we are in a Depression, but I think the comparisons to the devastating 1930s Depression falsely minimize the situation now, partly because the ways of calculating figures are deceptive and used for propaganda, and partly because some aspects of the situations themselves are different. Just because both are Depressions doesn't mean all the details will be the same.

Personal and business bankruptcies are at the highest since the Depression; there is a "negative savings rate" for the majority of people, (unable to save at all); the first time since the Depression, all very similar. Other things are very different, or have never happened before. One characteristic of the '30s Depression was that firms had to keep lowering the prices of their products, below what it cost them to make, so that they ended up losing money on sales, because most customers had no money at all, no income. Stores would make "sales," yet had no money coming in, because things were bought on the store's own credit plan, or time payments. Prices were depressed, yet few could buy, and things sat on shelves. Contrast that with today, and the global markets available to corporations and investors, but not to customers or workers. You have a weird and hellish situation where employees are suffering, can't pay bills, have no retirement security, are having record-high home foreclosures, yet the corporations they can't make the payments to, are not suffering--they are making record profits! People are not laid off nowadays just because the business cannot make payroll because the money is not coming in, as with a coherent Depression; now they are laid off, causing financial devastation and ruin for them, but the corporation itself rolls merrily on along, and profits further by consolidation, by pretending losses, or even by intentionally causing debt. Prices never go down nowadays, no matter how depressed the employment rate of the surrounding area. Further, because they, unlike us, have access to any market they can ship it to, if you here can't buy it, someone else will, and so the domestic economy itself has been split, and only the rich can recover. They just fly around the world until they find a buyer.

Figues are faked now. As soon as that bastard Reagan changed the employment rate so that it counted, as "fully employed" both, people who work only one hour a week, and those in the armed forces--neither of which had ever been done before--then I knew that all the statements were just their attempts to make themselves look good, and actually measured nothing. A society with a (for example) 6% unemployment rate is booming, doing very well, has almost no unemployment; so when they give that ridiculous figure as the number for this current flat, non-productive economy, then you know it means nothing. Because of depressed wages, many people have two oe even three jobs--how are they being calculated? Back in the old days of a livable wage, a safe rule of thumb for most cases was,one person, one job; one job, one employed person. No longer: three jobs, all underpaid and part-time, may only be one employed person. How do you know?

How are outsourced jobs counted? That takes away one job from one person for each one outsourced job, but of course they are not counting any of it. How are jobs killed by mergers and downsizing counted? If you think they make a note of every "lost" job by all these manipulations of business, then you must think they are trying to help us. There are no actual figures of the unemployment rate, but when one sector or class of work after another is moved to other countries, never to return, and whole sections of the country, such as my Midwest, are devastated and have not recovered, then you know the figure is much worse, but now it is not even reflected in the stock market, which now profits by cutting jobs, and cares more now about world currency levels than about their own former employees.

Unemployment is a horror when it happens, and is generally so hard to recover from, if you ever do, because they usually cut you with no warning, so you have no extra savings, and now have an every-month flood of bills which you must try to deal with from only the limited amount of money you already had, now dwindling. Then you have to search for a job--now--where there may be nothing available. Unlike the earlier Depression, though, the suffering is not so evenly spread. With all your fear and panic, you then turn on the TV and there are the rich people and their yachts, yucking it up oblivious, at our expense. Amongst all this poverty and suffering, industries collapsing--they get one tax cut after another!

[dysfunctional press]

79. no.

nt

[Anarcho-Socialist]

81. No, a depression is far more severe

Symptoms of a depression would mean unemployment over 20, 30, 40%, the stock market imploding, and the price of gold would sky-rocket.

Other symptoms of a depression would mean that governments would raise tariffs to protect domestic industry and to stop a flight of capital. Going protectionist a la 1930s would increase costs for businesses, increase inflation and lower available capital for reinvestment.

The effect on people would see huge levels of poverty. Not relative poverty, but less than subsistence poverty re: Third World for perhaps a quarter of the population.

There is an interesting possibility of a quasi-recession for many people. The economy is growing in dollar terms but the beneficiaries of this economic activity are the richest 20% of the U.S. who benefit the most from supply-side deficit tax cuts and deficit spending to assist corporations. This richest segment are also the primary beneficiaries of increased productivity in the economy, where people are working harder increasing output, but are seeing their nominal and real wages decreasing due to a minimum wage freeze; inflation in the housing market, the increasingly high cost of health care and inflation in the consumer sector.

The decline of the U.S. Dollar since 2001 versus other currencies, mean that in e.g. Euro terms the economy has not grown much. The impression of growth has come from wealth redistribution from the average citizen to the wealthy due to lack of employment protection, a pro-corporate government, and the use of citizen-financed government debt to forward free cash onto corporations.

[paparush]

91. If we aren't now, we may be if Iran decides to stop the flow of oil in

response to the Isreal/Lebanon war.

If Iran stops pumping oil, gas hits $8-$10 /a gal here. Gas supplies run short, Etc.....

In light of the Katrina response, can you imagine Bush/Cheney trying to do an FDR and pull this country of 300M people out of a depression.





We'll all have work......................building caskets and digging graves.

[readmoreoften]

119. Shouldn't that be phrased: "We are in a depression."

Where's the question in that statement.