I have a bad feeling about the invasion of Lebanon

[burythehatchet]

I'm wondering if this the entry point to attacking Syria and Iran. We know the generals have told Bush that attacking Iran would be suicidal, so I wonder if all the activity on the Mediterranean is a pretext to a joint Israeli/US action to bring the ME into a conflict that achieves their objectives in the region. Would be good election timing as well.


MODS** This is not I/P. This is foreign policy that is sure to lead to a wider regional situation.

[still_one]

1. if that occurred you would see the beginning of WWIII

incidently, I don't think it will happen

[cantstandbush]

82. Just what they all were waiting for. A ruse to attack Iran. nt

[uppityperson]

2. Either it is minor cockadoodling or can easily expand.

watching and waiting.

[Name removed]

83. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[knowbody0]

3. i have the same creepy feeling

i see mushroom clouds and melting children in the sand. it all seems so out of proportion and orchestrated.

[burythehatchet]

5. Orchestrated

Our leaders would never do that, would they?
:shrug:

[muryan]

28. not this time

i seriously doubt someone would create such a doomsday scenario on purpose

[burythehatchet]

32. Are you serious?

Have you been following the news for the past 5 years?

[Emit]

76. You have some catching up to do, perhaps. n/t

[muryan]

118. The war in Iraq was waged

to promote and create more US assests in the region, then it fell into turmoil. Our ever so competent leaders failed to realize what they were getting themselves into. This conflict only has the potential to create more mayhem, which would be a thorn in the side of bush and republicans who claimed a democratic iraq would help stabilize the region.

[AlCzervik]

4. it's scary, the escalation seems to be intensifying every day.

[mike_c]

6. to be honest, while I don't put any connivance past the Rumsfeld...

...and Cheney cabal, I think at this point any such "benefit" is a sideshow that has yet to materialize, perhaps discussed only as one of many scenarios. I think right now it is simply a matter of Israel lashing out incoherently like a well armed spoiled brat who has been defied. Israel seems to have two foreign policy settings: suspicion and military attack. Israel frames these in terms of defense when in fact it's everyone else in the region who must defend themselves against Israeli aggression.

[muryan]

14. Israeli agression

is a product of provication by islamic terrorists. So far the only things that Israel haave targeted during its attacks have been completely destroying hamas, and destroying the military infastructure of both the gaza strip and lebanon. It is NOT levying attacks against innocent civilians and is allowing humanitary aid to reach those people. I think that gives them the relative high ground per the rules of engagement

[Name removed]

73. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

79. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[dionysus]

94. bwahahahahyahahaha

n/t

[Bandit]

100. Israel just made a statement saying there are no civilians and

retaliation will be very very severe. Now why would they say something like that? There is going to be a lot of death and destruction because of Israel of that you can rest assured.

[alarimer]

146. I only wish we weren't funding this death and destruction

We need to stop funding Israel now. Let them kill each other if they must.

[chookie]

148. Agreed

Israel has one of the mightiest, well equipped, and skilled armies in the world. I'd back them against any enemy. While I know most Americans back the right of Israel to exist, and have condoned the generous support we have given Israel for decades and in our electing leaders that pledge support of Israel, I think that many of us now are balking at the prospect of US involvement in a regional war on Israel's behalf. Why must America send its sons and daughters to die for Israel? If it comes to that -- count me out.

They are carrying out these military actions because they can. Bush has repeated said that America will come to the defense of Israel. I take that to mean that we will follow them into battle -- perhaps after some new provocation, either against US troops in Iraq or neighboring countries, or in the US -- after all, we have been continually told that US and Israeli interests are identical. Maybe all that needs to happen is the breathless generating of new "threats" against America that have been uncovered--i.e."threats" like those deluded losers in Miami, or freaks like John Walker Lind -- all Bush needs to say is that Iran was behind them, and act on Cheney's 1%, and off we go into the meat grinder.

Prepare for another rush to war, heedless of the consequences it will incur. Don't expect open discussion.

[The Stranger]

84. Perhaps 911 was to Iraq what the captured soldiers are to this invasion.

Perhaps there was a plan in place all along. All that was needed was the right opportunity.

Like 911 provided the Necons the opportunity to invade Iraq with no justification whatsoever, so a few captured soldiers provides cover to invade other countries in the Middle East.

[malaise]

97. And he is right there in the ME

Well said.

[uppityperson]

7. Northern Israeli city hit by rockets from Lebanon

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-07-13T042201Z_01_L13106480_RTRUKOC_0_US-MIDEAST-ISRAEL-ROCKETS.xml&WTmodLoc=NewsArt-L3-Top+NewsNews-2
try this top link as it changed I think

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-07-13T042201Z_01_L13106480_RTRUKOC_0_US-MIDEAST-ISRAEL-ROCKETS.xml
Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:22am ET7

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - The northern Israeli city of Nahariya was hit by Katyusha rockets fired from Lebanon on Thursday, the Israeli army said.

The army said it was unclear if there were casualties.

[chookie]

150. Some have remarked...

...that it is interesting that the rockets struck targets beyond their known range -- they've never been able to penetrate this far into Israel before. Just lucky, I guess.

[muryan]

8. The most important thing to do in this situation

is have a consensus with china/russia and other major military players in the UN. This will escalate into a much worse situation from what it is now but it can be contained. Iran is not far off from entering into this situation, along with syria. I personally have a mixed opinion about how israel is handling the situation, knowing fully well that any negotiation would result in captive headless israeli soldiers. From my knowledge of the situation they are targeting known hamas/hezzbollah(sp?) safe houses and not needlessly targeting civilians(freepers wet dream). Sitting back and letting israel handle the situation while cautioning them to not go overboard is probably the best solution. If we can keep other countries out of the fray using our diplomatic channels the escalation will peak soon and a cease fire along with negotiation will a lot more plausible. I strongly believe in the peace process, but if the situation were that of american soldiers being kidnapped I can't say I would be protesting military action against the guilty party.

[burythehatchet]

10. For my clarification

is it classified as "kidnapping" in lieu of POW because it is carried out by people who can't have a standing army?

[AlCzervik]

13. Has war been declared? Maybe it's a technicality--pow vs. kidnapping.

[burythehatchet]

18. War can't really be declared when you have no government or army

[rucky]

50. What about civil wars?

or revolutions?

[Bandit]

101. Tell that to our War Commander Bush*

Terror has no army or government but we are at endless war with it.

[muryan]

16. i believe

they use the word kidnapping for that very reason. However that soldier was kidnapped by a large very organized militia with its own infrastructure (army without uniforms)

[patdem]

90. So let me get this correct?? It is a kidnapping resulting in WAR???

A kidnapping would result in POLICE action not WAR. So for their convenience it is a kidnapping and their response is to treat it like an act of WAR?

There seems to be a disconnect here. It is either a POW taken by the official government for which it would be an act of war OR it was a militia abduction and should be investigated, with FULL SUPPORT from the country in which that militia operates.

If those militia on patrol at our southern boarders kidnapped a Mexican government official would Mexico BOMB Houston? the airport? blockade the boarders?

Something is amiss here!

[northernsoul]

107. Apparently so

The ominous precedent being set right now is that any non-state actor can trigger a war between two nations by kidnapping a citizen of Country A into Country B. So if you're really spoiling for a fight with Canada, go grab an American at Niagara Falls, get him north of the border and watch the fireworks show begin! Yeee-hahh!

[theboss]

128. It's a little more complext than that

The organization doing the kidnapping has deep ties to the government of the country being attacked. It would be more analogous to the Canadian Mounties grabbing Americans at Niagra Falls.

[muryan]

132. Remember

the first world war started over an assasination.

[CoffeeCat]

145. Propaganda: This is WW3!

Bush Co has an incentive to convince Americans that the world is ending and that WW3 is upon us. I heard the endless drone of right-wing radio mouths, pounding the WW3 drums. This is all propaganda.

Bush Co is failing miserably in Iraq. Gas prices are high and oil prices are skyrocketing. They've bankrupted this nation and Junior has no credibility. They need chaos and doom to convince the masses that we need them. They more tumultuous the world is---the more they will try to convince all of us that we need Republicans in power--not those pansy Democrats who are soft on terror.

I really wouldn't be surprised if Bush Co exacerbates this situation, somehow.

They are corrupt, lying, evil bastards. And they are desperate.

[chookie]

149. More propaganda:

"Israel will go to war to protect the life of a single soldier, because it regards every Israeli soldier as family to be protected. But look at those filthy Arabs! -- they send *their* sons and daughters to die in maniacal suicidal attacks! They have no regard for human life -- not even that of their own people."

Sure....

[chookie]

152. The trouble with your analogy...

...is that Canadians will never grab Americans at Niagra Falls.

[gatorboy]

15. Not needlessly targeting civilians??

They just bombed the friggin' Beirut International Airport.

[muryan]

19. no confirmed

casaulties in that bombing. My best guess is that they blew up some runways to stop the possible movement of the kidnapped soldier, much like the bridges they destroyed in gaza for the same purpose.

[burythehatchet]

23. It has also been confirmed that a 500 pound bomb fell

in a residential neighborhood in Gaza killing 9 civilians.

[muryan]

25. can i see a source on that?

not that i dont believe you, i know of some civilian casualties. My point is that there doesn't seem to be TARGETING of civilians, which is what hamas is certainly guilty of.

[uppityperson]

130. Israeli reprisals hit Lebanon (killed more than 50 civilians)

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-07-13T145800Z_01_L11538533_RTRUKOC_0_US-MIDEAST.xml

...Sustained air strikes in south Lebanon killed more than 50 civilians and wounded 110 people, security sources said. Ten members of a family were killed in Dweir village and seven family members died in Baflay

A Lebanese army soldier was also killed. Israeli air strikes on Wednesday killed two civilians and a Hizbollah fighter. Two dozen bridges have been hit, with most heavily damaged...

more @ link, I am liking Reuters these days for a news source, seem a bit more balanced than others. Edited to fix where link was

[muryan]

133. Thanks

for the post, im trying to keep on top of the situation.

[chookie]

151. Let's see now...

... encircling Gaza and destroying its infrastructure, and establishing a blockade of Lebanon will not effect civilians?

Also -- in the instance that Israel is now reacting to, Hamas kidnapped an Israeli *soldier* -- not some innocent Israeli civilian enjoying a piece of pizza in a nice outdoor restaurant.

[chookie]

154. Muryan -- can we see your sources too? n/t

[WCGreen]

74. How can a safe house be known......

That defeats the purpose now doesn't it....

[gatorboy]

9. Possibly.

Considering how much we always hear abouty Gaza. This Lebanon incident came completely out of left field...

[burythehatchet]

11. And why would Lebanon and Syria provoke the situation

with 140,000 US troops across the border? None of this makes sense. Something stinks.

[gatorboy]

17. At this point I don't think Lebanon has any other choice.

Isreal already announced that every portion of Lebanon is bomb-worthy. THey'll want to retaliate regardless of who's across the borders.

[muryan]

27. i think that is a failed attempt by

israel to have the govt. of lebanon distance itself from hezzbollah and help the IDF pinpoint strongholds. This wont work of course and because the govt is ideologically the same as hezzbollah

[Clark2008]

80. And that's Israel's business how?

The PEOPLE of Lebanon want Hezbollah. It's their country, their government, their representatives.

It's NONE of Israel's fucking business. Sorry - but I don't want another country telling me who I should have in power - do you?

Edited to add an example: Most Canadians despise our "leadership," but you don't seem them pressuring their military to bomb us, do you?

[The Magistrate]

93. When Hezbollah Uses Lebanese Soil, Sir

As its base for operations across a border into another state, the failure of Lebanon's government to maintain a monopoly on the use of violence for political aims definitely becomes the business of the state Hezbollah attacks.

[deaniac21]

95. Yes, indeed.

[Igel]

103. If we routinely bombed Missassauga

and then crossed the border and kidnapped/killed some of their soldiers, I suspect that they might exert a bit of pressure. I suspect memories of the War of 1812 would come to mind fairly quickly in some sectors.

Even if the attack was actually the Republican Party's militia, based in Upstate New York, and which prevented the US government from exercising any control over the area.

But the Shi'ite militia doesn't necessarily represent the Christians or Druze in Lebanon. In fact, since the abducted soldiers were Druze, I'd think the Lebanese Druze might be of two minds over the matter.

[chookie]

155. Did you hear Bush's gaffe today?

I forget if I saw it on CBS or ABC news this evening -- but after he stated that Israel had the right to defend herself, and that other nations have the right to defend herself/ves, and that Lebanon had the right to defend herself as well.

Condi and Karen weren't there to stuff the tennis ball in his mouth before he said this.

Don't worry -- it will be edited out. Our press is good that way.

[The Magistrate]

37. The Source Of The Odor, Sir

Is the foul and foolish decision made by the Hezbollah leadership to carry out the attack on the patrol. that decison had nothing to do with the United States, Israel, Syria, or Lebanon.

[BrightKnight]

68. Hezbollah provoked this round.

They knew that Israel would have to react strongly. Perhaps the hot headed elements are using this to acquire and maintain power? Fear and hate mongering will not solve anything.

Is there anybody trying to reach a reasonable diplomat solution to this insane conflict anymore?

[deaniac21]

96. Clarity of thought is always a pleasure to observe.

[High Plains]

109. Hezbollah isn't the only one making foul and foolish decisions.

Israel has chosen to escalate a minor incident into a full-blown regional crisis with wildly disproportionate responses and attacks on civilian infrastructure, which, I believe, is a violation of the rules of war. Am I wrong?

[The Magistrate]

125. They Made The First One, Sir, In This Episode

Had they not conducted this operation, none of this would be happening.

It is certainly possible the Israeli response is playing into their hands, and is an unwise course for Israel to embark on. But the onus for igniting the situation into what it is today remains with the Hezbollah organization.

[Chulanowa]

143. So what you're saying

Is that the kidnapping of two soldiers more than justifies the deaths of any number of civilians?

[LittleClarkie]

12. Did they want Syria out so Israel could go in?

One kidnapped soldier seems like a trumped up reason to go in. (And as a soldier, wouldn't it be captured, not kidnapped?)

[muryan]

22. only if

he was captured by the standing army of the country, not by a militia

[tabasco]

124. So in 1776 American revolutionaries "kidnapped" British soldiers?

And I suppose the killing of redcoats was murder.

Interesting.

The monarchy of England was the official government at the time.

[theboss]

126. American regulars were not

Militias possbily were, depending on how they were organized.

Of course, the rules of war were different then.

[The Magistrate]

127. To The Government Of England It Certainly Was, Sir

[chookie]

153. My prediction has been that Syria would be attacked first

It's the obstacle between Mosul and Haifa -- the old oil pipeline.

That's why the NeoCons backed Chalabi and sold him to us as the Iraqi George Washington -- because as leader of Iraq, he said on Day 1, he would recognize Israel, and on Day 2, he would start work on re-establishing the Mosul/Haifa pipeline -- ensuring Israeli access to Arab oil.

Syria is an important target to ensure this ambition.

Also -- note that, in this instance, the victim of the kidnapping was not an innocent civilian but a soldier. The logic is that it is wrong for Lebanese/Palestinian targetting of soldiers, but it is laudable that Israel is targetting combatants -- and oops, apologies to the civilians who get hit by accident. Only Arabs deliberately target civilians -- when Americans and Israelis kill civilians, it's just an oops and should be forgotten.

[Stephanie]

20. George Bush and What Army?

They don't have the manpower, they don't have the money, coalitions are a thing of the past, how would they expect to pull this off?

[muryan]

24. precisely

which is why bush and his warhawks should keep their weapons out of this. US involvement should be at the peace table, not the front lines

[SlavesandBulldozers]

89. "bush and his warhawks should keep their weapons out of this"

israel makes its own warplanes now?

[muryan]

122. correction

I should have said American troops.

[SlavesandBulldozers]

138. gotcha. I kinda knew what you meant. i was just being a smartass

it was early. . . :)

[Cha]

92. That's what I was thinking..

If there ever is a time when our soldiers are really needed they're all over in Iraq fighting for bush's "war on terror" that he created.

[Doctor_J]

21. I wonder if WWIII would save Smirk's bacon for this November

if all the votes are counted, the GOP is in for an ass kicking of historic proportions this fall. OTOH, if WWIII is underway by then, some "rally round the Dunce" may come into play.

[muryan]

26. i hope beyond hope

that the majority of the american people would not fall for that again and to realize that these are problems created BY this administration for the most part, and cannot be solved by them.

[AndyTiedye]

29. No, But It Would Provide a Pretext to Do Away With Elections. Permanently

[muryan]

30. americans arent that blind

or apathetic. No member of the administration would live more than a week or two if that was attempted.

[AndyTiedye]

34. We Are Blind to the Extent That We Are Dependent on the MSM for News

The Mighty Sludge Machine administers massive doses of Kool Ade whenever needed.
Most people still believe it -- especially when something terrible happens.

They can do it, and they will do it if it looks like an easier sell than just saying they won again.

[LonelyLRLiberal]

60. Americans are also selfish - no inconvenience to them personally?

then, no problem.

[AndyTiedye]

67. Our Response to Recent Disasters Would Suggest Otherwise

I refer to the response by the people ourselves, NOT that of the government.

[The Magistrate]

31. There Is Certainly Potential, Mr. Hatchet, For Syrian Involvement

Syria regards Lebanon as an intrinsic part of Syria, seperated from it only by skullduggery on the part of the Frenchm abd has long held the aim of dominating and acquiring it as an element of national policy. You may recall that it was occuppied by Syria for many yeras and that this occupation ended only quite recently. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that a major Israeli invasion of Lebanon would be met by a Syrian invasion of the place.

Involvement of Iran in the matter is far more tenuous, and very unlikely. Hezbollah is a Shia movement, and has had funding and various sorts of support from the Islamic Republic of Iran. But that is nothing new, and in no previous bout of hostilities has this connection produced any Israeli action against Iran.

[burythehatchet]

33. FYI - Its hard to keep this discussion from

descending into the I/P discussion. But wasn't the intent. I hope the thread can stay here, assuming it doesn't get hijacked and flown into I/P out of necessity. :)

[The Magistrate]

36. As The Matter Is Current And Serious News, Sir

Every effort is being made to maintain discussion of it here. Co-operation towards that end, of course, is very much appreciated.

[Hardrada]

38. Well, obviously, we should have propped up the Ottoman

Empire when we had the chance. Everything over there has sucked ever since Lawrence of Arabia. Or the entry of the Goeben and the Breslau into the Golden Horn. Or maybe this really is all Kismet!

[The Magistrate]

46. There Is To Be Said For The Old Imperiums, Sir

But it is certainly the case that the area makes a poor fit with a number of orthodox styles of political interpretation....

[Hardrada]

69. not to mention competing eschatolological viewpoints!

I prefer the weary cynicism of the old Sublime Porte.

[The Magistrate]

71. Cynicism For Me Every Time, Sir

"Taking bribes from both sides and deciding cases on their merits, he quickly gained the name of an honest judge."

[walldude]

35. I'm not feeling real good about this either

Why not just have the prisoner exchange? Israel claims it's because it will encourage more kidnappings but that reeks of bullshit to me. This goes deeper than the kidnapping of 2 soldiers. The puppeteers are working furiously and it's creeping me out.

[McCamy Taylor]

39. Israel is the clear aggressor so far. Be hard to sell a war to the US.

Would need to get the UN to go in to protect Israel, before anyone in the US would agree to joining in another mideast conflict that would (indirectly) involve Iran, and to me it seems more likely that the UN would step in to sanction Israel. It's going to be a hard sell to convince Americans that Israel, renowned for its military might, is some poor little puny country in need of protection.

[gardenista]

40. Who said "the US" bought the last one???!!

Americans no longer need convincing. The opinion of regular citizens doesn't count anymore.

[McCamy Taylor]

41. If we dont buy it, it doesnt help the GOP in the elections.

[gardenista]

42. Whether we buy it or not will likely have no effect in the GOP elections

Just as it didn't in 2004.

[The Magistrate]

43. In Point Of Fact, Ma'am

The aggressor is Hezbollah, operating from Lebanese soil against an Israeli military detachment,

Israel is simple the better armed party in the combant ignited by Hezbollah's act.

[McCamy Taylor]

48. You are everywhere. Israel over reacted. Why? Why declare war

on a whole country NOW for a border skirmish with a group that has been there for a long time? The timing sucks. Why is Israel trash talking Syria, which isnt even part of the present conflict? Israel is acting like it took a big dose of PCP. If it isnt careful, the UN will sanction it.

[The Magistrate]

49. Syria Is Part Of It, Ma'am

Syria, as you may recall, only recently ended a decades long occupation of Lebanon, and covets the territory. It has friendly relations with Hezbollah, and some degree of input into its actions, as it does with certain factions of the military bodies of Hamas.

Israel may well be over-reacting, but that does not change the underlying dynamics of the situation, nor alter the fact that it was an act of war carried out from Lebanese soil that opened the hostilities we are discussing.

[w4rma]

58. Maybe, maybe not, but how is a surprise attack on a civilian structure

going to help the situation? It seems to me it would make folks more hardheaded and less likely to cooperate, if anything.

[The Magistrate]

61. There Is No Maybe, Maybe Not, Sir

About Syrian and Iranian relations with Hezbollah, and their being in a position to exert some degree of control over that body.

Whether Israel's actions will bring it any benefit remains to be seen, and excellent arguments can be made for predicting that it will not. That people do not always act in the manner cool and dispassionate analysis of their circumstances might suggest is pretty much the history of the Middle East for a century or so, and there is no reason to expect tonight the mould will be broken....

[chookie]

156. Do you know how annoying this continuous Sir and Ma'am stuff is, Sir?

(slaps own hand!) I shouldn't be so petty -- you're doing a great job as moderator, allowing this spirited debate on a controversial topic to live.

Michael Sheuer, back in the days when he was "Anonymous," was also big on the Sir and Ma'am stuff. Drove me to distraction! But he seems to have been taken under the wing of a drama coach now that he is a network pundit, and has dropped it.

Elvis was also a big Sir and Ma'am kinda guy.

In interest of full disclosure -- the use of Sir and Ma'am is something I picked up in my long residency in the South, and yes, it does annoy the Yankees I use it with, even though I use it sparingly.

(slaps own hand again)

[negativenihil]

129. Sorry, but there will be no UN resolution against Israel.

We'll be sure to veto it ASAP. This is why Israel can pretty much get away with whatever they want. They've got an 800lb gorilla in thier corner, and that gorilla is the US.

[jaysunb]

44. Excellent observation

Fire, meet gasoline....:evilfrown:

[Nothing Without Hope]

45. The NY Times is already blaming Iran and Syria for the violence now

in Lebanon and Gaza. See link and excerpt in Reply #8 in this thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1621289

Is this a setup to justify invasion of Iran and/or Syria?

[McCamy Taylor]

47. Yes, I think that Israel is working for the Neo-cons. Poke sticks at

Iran and its buddies hard enough and long enough and eventually some one will retaliate---or they can pretend that Iran has retaliated. Then Israel will beg for US help. However, there are many people and forces in the US which do not want to see us embroiled in a US-Iran war. Like GE/NBC. So, unless the US Military plans to bribe GE with a big piece of Halliburton's action, I dont think that Operation Have Israel Poke Iran and Its L'il Buddies With a Stick will work.

[ArmchairMeme]

136. Ohhh.....

So that's why Halliburton's contract for Iraq is over. They are about to be re-deployed to a different location.

[bloom]

51. That is a bad sign

thanks for the link.

[Nothing Without Hope]

53. YVW. Here's another. The LA Times words it differently:

While the NY Times article clearly agrees with the "experts" said to believe that Syria and Iran are behind the violence, the LA Times words the statement more truthfully, saying that the White House and Israeli officials were quick to blame the governments of Syria and Iran. I also noticed that the LA Times article mentions the Israeli bombing of the Beirut airport, while the NY Times article - despite being the latest update - does not.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-lebanon13jul13,0,2240091.story?track=tothtml

Israel Strikes Lebanon After Militants Capture 2 Soldiers

Beirut airport is among the sites targeted in response to Hezbollah's cross-border raid, which the prime minister calls an act of war.
By Laura King and Vita Bekker, Special to The Times
July 13, 2006

SAFAT, Israel — Israel bombed Beirut's airport early today and sent troops and tanks deep into Lebanon after guerrillas from the Shiite Muslim group Hezbollah seized two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others in a meticulously planned border raid.

It was Israel's first major offensive in Lebanon in six years, marking a return to a battlefield that for many Israelis became a quagmire.

A wave of overnight Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed more than 20 civilians, officials said, and an Israeli woman was killed when Lebanese guerrillas fired Katyusha rockets at the coastal town of Nahariya.

Israel confirmed that its air force had struck Beirut's airport to halt air traffic to and from the capital, saying that the airport was used as a hub to transfer weapons. It was unclear how long the airport would remain closed.

(snip)

A key sentence: "The ramifications threatened to spread across the region. The White House and Israeli officials quickly cast blame on Syria and Iran, Hezbollah's patrons.

[bloom]

57. " The White House and Israeli officials "

:grr:

I was flipping through news stations during the prime news half hour - thinking maybe they would have something. If they did I missed it. I ended up on INN news (satellite station) - and Mearsheimer was being interviewed (re: Israel Lobby - among other things) - it was the only station I saw that mentioned the Israel/Lebanon thing.

I thought it was pretty weird.

[Emit]

75. Something more from that article: WH holding Syria and Iran responsible

The White House released a statement condemning the Hezbollah raid, calling it an “unprovoked act of terrorism” and holding Syria and Iran responsible because of their longstanding support for the group. The United Nations representative to southern Lebanon, Gier Pedersen, also criticized the raid, calling it “an act of very dangerous proportions.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/world/middleeast/13mideast.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin

[Emit]

77. "In the Perle-Feith-Wurmser strategy, Israel’s enemy remains Syria,

but the road to Damascus runs through Baghdad."

That, according to Pat Buchanan:

In 1996, with Douglas Feith and David Wurmser, Perle wrote “A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm,” for Prime Minister Netanyahu. In it, Perle, Feith, and Wurmser urged Bibi to ditch the Oslo Accords of the assassinated Yitzak Rabin and adopt a new aggressive strategy:

Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq—an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right—as a means of foiling Syria’s regional ambitions. Jordan has challenged Syria’s regional ambitions recently by suggesting the restoration of the Hashemites in Iraq.

In the Perle-Feith-Wurmser strategy, Israel’s enemy remains Syria, but the road to Damascus runs through Baghdad. Their plan, which urged Israel to re-establish “the principle of preemption,” has now been imposed by Perle, Feith, Wurmser & Co. on the United States.

http://www.amconmag.com/03_24_03/print/coverprint.html

[McCamy Taylor]

52. "US Blames Iran and Syria" from MSNBC-boy does that sound scripted

Story here

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13830971/

“We also hold Syria and Iran — which directly support Hezbollah — responsible for this attack and for the ensuing violence,” Jones said. “Hezbollah’s terrorism is not in Lebanon’s interest.

[Nothing Without Hope]

54. You bet it's scripted. The NY Times is playing the same script.

The LA Times is more truthful, saying that the White House and Israeli officials were quick to blame events on Syria and Iran. The different wording is significant.

I have a feeling this is a staged provocation and justification for attacks on Iran and/or Syria.

[The Magistrate]

62. If You Are Going To Claim It Is A Staged Provocation, Ma'am

Then you must assert Sheik Nasrallah is controlled by the U.S. and Israel....

[Behind the Aegis]

63. self-delete

[The Magistrate]

64. It Is Best, Sir

If such "insinuendoes" are avoided.

The fact is that many people simply do not have any great working knowledge of the factions and personalities involved, and so find it easy to imagine the common plot devices of sensational fictions can be imposed on the events as explainations.

[Behind the Aegis]

66. self-delete

[w4rma]

55. I sure didn't see this coming: An attack on a seemingly unrelated

country with the reason give as two hostages held by an organization not endorsed by any country.

[Igel]

106. Hizbullah is part of the Lebanese government and

operating in S. Lebanon because the central government either is not prepared for the political fallout that would come from dissing a significant part of itself, or not prepared to take on the militarily well-armed militia.

Lebanon, therefore, provides some legitimacy to the militia.

Moreover, it is supported in terms of materiel, training, and finances by Iran and Syria. Hizbullah's hegemony was established in the presence and with the support of of Syrian troops; oddly, Syrian troops could co-occur with Hizbullah militiamen, while the Lebanese army proper was not allowed in the area.

If having Hizbullah in the government of one country and two country's provisioning of it with material and money do not constitute endorsement by at least one of the three governments, I do not know what "endorsement" means in practical terms.

Moreover, the pretext for the attack was provided, presumably because it would be a bottomless source of such pretexts, by Syria's ceding of a thin strip of Syrian territory to Lebanon. However, in spite of the Lebanese government's request, Syria has not provided written confirmation or an official act transferring the territory. Only Lebanon and Syria recognize the transfer officially, and Lebanon apparently has doubts. Hizbullah, however, does not.

[McCamy Taylor]

56. Add Frist to the script over at Fox News. "We hold Syria and IRAN

accountable..."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,203166,00.html

[bloom]

59. excerpt - "Syria and Iran are to blame"

U.S. Blames Syria, Iran For Israeli Soldiers' Kidnapping
Wednesday, July 12, 2006

ROSTOCK, Germany — Syria and Iran are to blame for the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah terrorists and the subsequent Israeli military response, U.S. officials said Wednesday.

The White House called for the immediate and unconditional release of the two soldiers abducted by Hezbollah guerrillas on Wednesday. Seven Israeli soldiers have also been killed in a cross-border attack that Israel has called an act of war by Lebanon.

"The United States condemns in the strongest terms this unprovoked act of terrorism, which was timed to exacerbate already high tensions in the region and sow further violence. We also hold Syria and Iran, which have provided long-standing support for Hezbollah, responsible for today's violence. We call for the immediate and unconditional release of the Israeli soldiers," reads a statement released by the White House press secretary.

"Hezbollah's actions are not in the interest of the Lebanese people, whose welfare should not be held hostage to the interests of the Syrian and Iranian regimes. We reiterate the international community's insistence that all parties in the region fulfill their obligations under U.N. Security Council resolutions 1559 and 1680, and cease all support for Hezbollah," the statement continues.

----------------------------------- (From FOX link)

Notice how they word it, "Syria and Iran are to blame" - as if it is the absolute truth (because "U.S. officials" said so).

@%$&*^ %#&^@% :grr:

[McCamy Taylor]

65. Yep, "Syria and Iran are to blame" straight out of Rove's mouth.

I'll bet every Republican is going say those words at least three times tomorrow. And John Bolton will call for a UN resolution condemning the two countries.

[enigmacat]

70. Something actually came OUT of Rove's mouth? j/k

In all seriousness, as much as I feel for Israel's situation, their currect actions don't make much logical sense.

[lumpy]

72. It is common knowledge that Bushco

and Israel has no love nor tolerance for Iran and Syria. Someone said this whole scenario stinks and so it seems. What an opportunity to furthure the Bushco plan to make radical changes in the MidEast.

[bloom]

108. This is a good little mini-history about Syria and Iran.

Like I forgot that Syria supported the first Gulf War. And yeah - things have changed under Bush II. Seems like a loyalty (on Bush*s part - neocons, etc.) to Israel must be part of it.


Syria's one true friend - Iran
By Sami Moubayed

Jul 12, 2006

...Other examples followed, including the Gulf War of 1991. Again, Syria challenged conventional wisdom. Rather than siding with Iraq, as Jordan's King Hussein and Yasser Arafat did, Syria joined Operation Desert Storm to liberate Kuwait from Saddam Hussein.

The reward was great - surprising all Syrians who opposed involvement in Desert Storm. Syria was courted and treated like a superpower, by both presidents George H W Bush and Bill Clinton, and given an okay to keep its forces in Lebanon, especially after Lebanon's then anti-Syrian leader General Michel Aoun made his fatal mistake by siding with Saddam Hussein.

Today, after many years of doubt, the Syrian street no longer questions or opposes the government's foreign policy. This is either out of a sincere conviction that this regime cannot go wrong in foreign affairs, or many years of indoctrination of the Syrian people. Or, a combination of both. The street loves Syria's allies and hates its enemies. They hated Egypt's Anwar al-Sadat and loved Gamal Abdul-Nasser. They love Hasan Nasrallah of Hizbullah, Mahmud Ahmadinejad of Iran and Khaled Meshaal of Hamas. They despise George W Bush, Walid Jumblatt and Saad al-Harriri.

<snip>
Today, Syria's foreign relations are based on a conviction that relations with the United States are no longer repairable so long as Bush is at the White House. Relations with France, the Syrians believe, are also strained so long as Jacques Chirac - an ally of the Harriri family in Lebanon - is in power in Paris. And so long as Chirac is around, Europe is not a priority on Syria's agenda. Mostly the Syrians have decided to ignore the West and head east. They want to create economic and political alliances with Malaysia, India, China and Russia, feeling that when the Western world sees that it has lost Syria, it would recalculate its relationship with Damascus. First on the list of the countries that Syria is reaching out to is Iran.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HG12Ak01.html

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x222030

[Lerkfish]

78. I am thinking the same thing. how convenient it would be to use this

as an entry into war with the entire middle east.

and, right on time. The neocons have a timetable, and they get cranky when real life delays it.

[burythehatchet]

88. See it for what it is

This is a planned US/Israeli crisis designed to accomplish grander goals. The current molding of public opinion by the propogandistas is what Noam Chomsky might call "manufacturing consent". Well they will never have my frickin consent. Do not for one minute believe this has anything to do with the I/P conflict.

Israel does not make a military move without complete awareness, intelligence, economic, armament support of US assets. Therefore, in fact, Israeli policy is US policy. US policy intends to destabilize (plant the seeds of democracy) the region and seize the natural assets, including precious water. Israel wants the water, and they will get the US oil to become the dominant economic and military superpower in that region. All the rest of it is the pretext, the BULLSHIT, that provides the storyline for the media to feed you.

Oh, look - Daryn Kagan is teaching me "Hezollah 101" on CNN. CNN the most trusted name in news, and where I learn my history lessons.

[malaise]

99. Bingo n/t

[muryan]

114. I think you forgot something..

your tinfoil hat :tinfoilhat:

[Lerkfish]

117. here. you forgot this:

:grr:

since we're debating with smilies.


I find people who knee jerk accuse others of wearing tinfoil hats INSTEAD of refuting their points, are simply demonstrating they have nothing in the way of counterarguments.

please try better next time.

[muryan]

120. I dont see the point

in refuting the arguement when someone is obviously convinced of their own genius. I was just merely pointing out that the statement had entered into the realm of tinfoil hats.

[Lerkfish]

137. I was accused of wearing a tinfoil hat when I said we would invade Iraq

and when I said there were no WMDs, and when I said there would be abuses at Guantanamo, and when I said that the neocons would want to subsume the other branches under their control


all of which came to pass. Was I insane, or prescient?

I find those who accuse others of "tin-foil hattery" are simply not paying enough attention.

good day to you, sir.

[theboss]

81. We're just going back to 1989

We are going to end up with a Lebanon whose central government is controlled by Syria and who is occupied by Israel.

I do think it's fair to place the blame on Hezbollah because if they were somehow removed from the equation, none of this would be happening. And it is frustrating because there is no reason for Lebanon to be either a Syrian puppet state, a terrorist state, or Israeli territory.

But I never understand why Israel is expected to behave differently from every other nation. If a terrorist group was using Ontario as a base of operations - and Canada was giving them aid and comfort - no one would tell the US that they could not defend themselves.

[burythehatchet]

85. There are few, not so minor flaws in your analogy

but I'm sure you know what they are.

[theboss]

86. Canadians aren't Jewish?

What are the flaws?

[burythehatchet]

87. really?

"If a terrorist group was using Ontario as a base of operations - and Canada was giving them aid and comfort - no one would tell the US that they could not defend themselves."

I wonder why there are no terrorist groups in Ontario.

[Minstrel Boy]

91. latest: Israeli planes attack Lebanese military's main air base

Israeli warplanes blasted runways at the main army air base in eastern Lebanon near Syria’s border today, police said, an attack that could draw the Lebanese army into Israel’s war with Hezbollah guerrillas.

Jets dropped two bombs on the runway at the Rayak air base in the eastern Bekaa Valley, damaging it, police said.

There were no reports of casualties.

Earlier today, Israeli warplanes struck runways at Beirut airport, the only international facility in the country.

Rayak, 30 miles east of Beirut and about 4 miles west of the Syrian border, is home to the country’s main military air base and is the military headquarters in eastern Lebanon.


http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?j=188961606&p=y8896z3yz

[porphyrian]

98. Syria has nukes.

It won't go that easily.

[The Magistrate]

102. Does It Indeed, Sir?

That is certainly news to me, and a source for the statement would be much appreciated.

There are some credible claims the country does have some small chemical capability....

[porphyrian]

104. Don't fucking call me sir.

I hate it. Unless you're intentionally trying to piss me off, don't do it anymore.

Also, do your own fucking research. If you don't agree with what I say, fine. However, I'm not going to walk you through every step of my posts with footnotes just because you have a problem accepting things that aren't verfied in triplicate by what you consider to be authorities. Believe whatever the fuck you want. I don't care.

Edit: removed stray "a"

[muryan]

111. winner of the

random emotional outburst award for this thread

[Lerkfish]

116. I completely understand porphyrian's point, though...

I have also in the past interpreted magistrate's use of "sir" when upbraiding me for my POV as condescending passive aggressive behavior.

But, I see that that is his/her style of addressing people, for good or for ill.

Its a problem because you cannot catch inflection from the keyboard, and if magistrate was upbraiding you, and say ing "sir" directly afterwards, its easy to interpret that as dripping condescension, whether it is or not.

I'm still not understanding why that's magistrate's style, but what the hey...

[muryan]

121. I see nothing wrong

with saying sir or maam. I merely viewed it as being polite.

[Lerkfish]

134. that's easy for you to assume, sir.

:)

see what I mean?

[BrightKnight]

140. attack the messenger

The Magistrate was simply being polite and formal. He clearly intended to promote civil discourse. This is one thread were everyone needs to be on there best behavior.

[Lerkfish]

141. if that's directed at me

(hard to tell when threads spread out this far...

I was explaining HOW poryphian might have interpreted magistrate like that, and said I have done in the past.
I didn't view what I was saying as an attack, in fact, I was trying to smooth out some feathers, not ruffle more.

[BrightKnight]

144. was not aimed at you

There is nothing wrong with The Magistrates formal style.

I agree with you about smoothing feathers. Enough has been said about this.

[uppityperson]

135. me too and this is making me laugh

if it were a response from me, get insulted, but M's style is start every post like this.

[theboss]

110. Whoa!!! When did Syria join the nuclear club?

And could someone please notify the Pentagon and State Department.

[muryan]

112. they didnt

unless theyve been working really hard overnight

[Zynx]

113. The hell? Syria does not have nukes. Syria has lots of nerve gas.

Syria is not remotely capable of building even a basic nuclear weapon. No materials, no tech base, no evidence whatsoever they've ever even TRIED to solve those problems.

Syria does have enormous amounts of chemical weapons, and they don't exactly hide that fact.

[muryan]

115. which is basically useless in this conflict

cant use nerve gas on plans dropping bombs on you. Nor would syria fire nerve gas towards israel, because they know 3 nukes would be in the air before the nerve gas landed.

[Zynx]

119. Agree.

[theboss]

123. Israel's air power renders almost all tactics pointless

Aside from guerilla war.

[AngryOldDem]

105. I've been wondering that as well.

Something bad is coming.

Just waiting for one of those missiles "targeted" for Lebanon to "accidentally" hit Syria. I think, then, all hell will break loose.

[SoCalDem]

131. It's so upsetting to me to think that Beirut will once again

be ruined.. They are just now starting to flourish after decades of destruction..

What a waste of lives and efforts..

[theboss]

139. To me, that's the really depressing thing here

When you study the Middle East, the two countries that stand out as places that should be more advanced, that should be democracies, and that should be friendly with the West are Lebanon and Iran. Lebanon simply never gets the chance to flourish. And Iran is controlled by madmen.

To be honest, the last country anyone should try to "plant a seed of democracy" is Iraq. But were are there.

And this is where we are.

[burythehatchet]

142. 3 of the most beautiful places on the planet

Kashmir, Lebanon, Yugoslavia. Humans suck.

[chookie]

147. Join me in a walk down Memory Lane

Remember the "Cedar Revolution?" Remember how it was held up as an example of Bush's strategic genius -- how they were inspired by the liberation of Iraq? Remember the happy rallys we watched on tv? How it was heralded as the next chapter in the democratization of the Middle East -- thank you George W?

Yesterday's news.

I share your concern that we are at a critical juncture, when any day we can wake up and discover the US and Israel are at war with Syria, Lebanon, and Iran. Again, as in Iraq, our government will be in a breathless rush to take out the Hitler du jour, careless of the consequences.

Gee -- I don't know about the election timing.... What might work is some new provocation. Ha ha -- watch the spin go from "See -- no new terror attacks on US soil. George W protects us!!" to "See how murderous these bastards are? Therefore, we need a determined leader like George W." You and I might notice this twist in the wind, but not sure how many others will.

Still -- I anticipate wider American opposition to a regional war. I know that Americans feel strongly about the right of Israel to exist -- not so sure they will be okay with Americans dying for Israeli and NeoCon regional ambitions. Again -- not that it will matter, because not only does the Bush adminstration not care about American sentiment on critical issues, but neither do our Democrat leaders.

Worried about the invasion of Lebanon? Prepare to be worried about the invasion of Syria and Iran.

Gosh by golly -- I hope we're both wrong. A wider war will ultimately do nothing to promote the security of the US or Israel.