Is Israel attack on Gaza & Lebanon meant to bait Iran into war?

[yurbud]

If I recall correctly, Hezbollah is backed by Iran, so Israel giving them a pounding may be a way of trying to get Iran to intervene more directly.

[MadHound]

1. No, frankly I think that this is going to be used as an excuse

For Bushco to fulfill their PNAC dreams of invading and controlling Iran and Syria. First step was to invade and control Iraq, now that is done, it's time for them to move onto their next step of imperial hegemony.

[Freedom_from_Chains]

2. Other:

It is meant to give cover to Syria and Iran to jump in and then to bait us into the conflict. And being the suckers we have been we will take it hook, line, and bait.

[livetohike]

3. I agree

and Condi is a miserable failure. She couldn't hold anything together with a safety pin.

[Freedom_from_Chains]

4. She wasn't meant to hold anything together

The core of the neo-cons philosophy has always been the idea of a winnable nuclear war and they are about to bring the opportunity they want to fruition.

[livetohike]

6. This trip has been too long and nightmarish. I want it to end but

not that way :-(.

[Freedom_from_Chains]

13. Then I think there may be some bad news in store for you. n/t

[yurbud]

20. even the extremely restrained Sy Hersh said the worst is yet to come

He doesn't normally make predictions, but in an interview, he said he was glad he has a dual passport and somewhere to go when the shit hits the fan.

This might be shit moving done the colon and lining up for the fan.

[Freedom_from_Chains]

24. Well this is just what the neo-cons have been moving us towards

for a long time. I think show-time may be at hand.:-(

[sg_]

5. Israel is now saying the kidnapped soldiers...

are being attempted to be moved into Iran.

Could get even more out of hand.

[Solo_in_MD]

7. Other: Iran is irrelevant. They have no

common border with Israel. They will spew fatwas and that is about it. A non-player except in the media.

The key here is Syria. They have control of their territory, and some claim a fair amount of Lebanon as well, which they use as a surrogate to poke at Israel. There have been published reports which quote Hezbullah as saying that the kidnaped soliders are in a place that the IDF can not reach. That would tend to indidcate Syria. I personally beleive that is an attempt to get the IDF to attack Syria directly and bring them into the fight.

[yurbud]

9. why would Syria go along with something that suicidal or is it false flag?

[The Magistrate]

12. It Is An Action Of Hezbollah, Sir

In that organization's relation to Syria just now, we could be seeing a case of the tail wagging the dog, where the minor client acts in a way that forces the patron to do the bidinmg of the lesser whether it will or no, by the dynamics of the situation created.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

14. Are we the dog being wagged by the Israeli tail?

"...where the minor client acts in a way that forces the patron to do the bidinmg of the lesser whether it will or no, by the dynamics of the situation created."

Are we facing a similar imperative by the dynamics of the political situation in this country?

I've noticed that Bush was quick to come to Israel's defense. Do you think that he is doing so out of conviction or necessity?

[yurbud]

21. both sides of that one are fairly persuasive. if Israel is tail, we're

doing "good cop, bad cop" with Israel always the bad cop (at least until we invaded Iran).

The other side is that Israel has cost us so much ill will in the Middle East and complicated our oil machinations, that they can't possibly be seen as an asset, but we are treating them exactly the way we do the Cuban exiles in Florida--stroking a pivotal constituency even if it conflicts with good policy.

[yurbud]

15. If that's the case, Israel, Syria, Iran, and US could choose NOT to act

Remember at the very beginning of Bush's presidency when China forced down one of our spyplanes?

That was exactly the kind of provocation Bush was looking for with Iraq, but because China wasn't on the agenda and also too big a dog to take on, they let the "crisis" fizzle, just as we do with North Korea because we have nothing to gain from escalating.

Tail's don't wag dogs that often, and if they make a habit of doing it, they get cut off like Saddam and us.

[Igel]

8. Other: the question is precisely backwards, IMHO. n/t

[yurbud]

10. You think Iran is baiting Israel? They want to give a nuclear power

a reason to attack them when Israel is itching to do it anyway as are the Bushies?

What would be their motive or do you really think people sitting on trillions of dollars worth of oil will commit mass suicide?

[Igel]

18. I'm not going to rule out one of two possibilities.

The first, that Iran's leadership seriously thinks they can wound, possibly seriously, Israel. The US is tied down in Iraq, and with Israel fighting on two fronts it's possibly to cripple or exhaust Israel's military might. Remember that for many Islamic fundamentalists there is no real distinction between Israel and the US.

The second, that Iran knows what it's doing in the realm of nuclear technology, that the UN and European Union are toothless, and that the US is not going to engage in a massive attack. That leaves two options: a tactical attack on the site or nothing at all. If the US does nothing, it suffers a ding to its reputation. Israel is reportedly more likely to actually engage in a repeat of the Osirak strike in Iraq. But not if it's strapped, dealing with two fronts. And if an attack on Iran would likely further Iran's contribution to Hizbullah, and justify such a contribution.

Remember, the Bushies may want Assad gone, and have no love for Hizbullah; but they're also moderately in favor of Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran, Syria, and Hizbullah would all love Israel entirely gone; Iran and Syria have been upgrading Hizbullah's capabilities for the last year, and Hizbullah has returned the favor by lobbing bombs into Northern Israel and staging attacks in N. Israel. They cannot be reasonably portrayed as innocent, or assumed to not be active players.

[yurbud]

19. It is hard to imagine anyone baiting a nuke power that has a woodie for

hitting them anyway.

Hezbollah is not innocent, but if they were working against the perceived interests of their sponsors, their funding and probably lives would end.

[Recursion]

23. Eh, sponsorships aren't that simple

It's not like Hezbollah works for the Syrian or Iranian government. Each has their own agenda. When we treat Hezbollah as puppets of Syria or Iran, we're making the same mistake a lot of ME Arabs do by thinking Israel and the US are the same thing. Every group has its own interests and agenda; Syria supports Hezbollah for certain historical and strategic reasons, ditto Iran. Neither owns Hezbollah, and neither entirely approves of everything Hezbollah does. Similarly, the MB in Egypt supports Hamas but they don't see eye to eye on everything (particularly on the idea of a few million palestinians breaking out of Gaza and moving to Egypt).

Remember the "Cedar Revolution" last year? Hezbollah very "loudly" kept it's mouth shut for about a week before taking to the streets to back Syria. Whether they were playing hardball to get more concessions from Damascus or just weren't sure which outcome would be better for them, they acted in their own interests and on their own schedule.

[yurbud]

25. like us and al qaeda in 80s & 90s--and maybe later

[The Magistrate]

11. No, Sir, It Is Not Meant For That, And Will Not Cause It

It is a local action, and the Israeli government's leading motivation is the imperatives of Israeli political life as it contrues them.

[Clarkie1]

16. Iran does not wish to be anniliated.

They will not attack israel because if they do Iran will cease to exist.

[yurbud]

26. it is amazing how many people ignore these basic facts

Every time someone tries to incite fear of another country in us, we should clear our throat, and say "Yes, but we have 10,000 nukes."

There is a similar response for Israel. They are out-numbered by their neighbors, but at the same time, they have several hundred nukes. Arabs can count. I think they invented the numbers we use.

[Swede]

17. Israel is defending itself.

Both attacks are responses to rocket launches into Israeli territory.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

22. Probably.

Israel's looking for justification to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities.

[Warren DeMontague]

27. Enough, already. Bush doesn't work for the Israelis.

He works for the Saudis. Get it straight!

[Behind the Aegis]

28. Don't ruin the 'meme' for everyone.

:evilgrin:

[Warren DeMontague]

29. I know. Them facts are pesky critters. nt