So When Does Iran Cut Off The Oil? I Don't Get This Threat.

[DistressedAmerican]

Everyone says that is their biggest bargaining chip. They have threatened it.

I know there is a lot of money in it for them. But, why not just tank the American economy right now? Are they afraid that we will invade if they do? We will most likely invade either way. Surely they do not think it is a deterent to Bushco.

Is there less to the threats of economic instability than reported? Are they actually able to cut us off and drive up prices to disasterous levels?

I do not get this.

What's up? Why not just cut us the hell off?

[RB TexLa]

1. I would guess they need the income and the work for their people

[Vincardog]

2. Do you think we have the manpower to invade Iran?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

PSST the BushBots are bullies and will not pick a fight with anyone who would FIGHT BACK.

[DistressedAmerican]

3. No.

But, we didn't have the manpower to invade Iraq either.

These assholes do not care about the short term national tragedy as long as it lines their greedy pockets with blood money. Do you really think Bush cares who "wins" in Iraq? He and his buddies are winners either way. Instability is great for oil profits.

[Master Mahon]

8. Yes, and we are only interested

in controlling their oil interests situated on a small section of the country.
We'll leave Israel to handle the regime change probably.

[Vincardog]

13. Read the PNAC white paper. Iraq is aWoL's Never Ending War

He doesn't want to WIN he wants to STEAL FOREVER. War is also an excellent excuse to cut social spending while you loot the Treasury.

[maxsolomon]

12. we have the manpower to blockade iran

and destroy any & all pipelines out.

and we're dumb enough to do it.

[Vincardog]

14. That would help us how?

[maxsolomon]

19. invading iraq helped us how?

embargoing cuba helps us how?

america is a giant teenage bully of a country.

[Vincardog]

21. You never will see me advocation any of those actions.

I think it is time to end the Imperial AmeriKKKa plan from the PNAC NOW.
Neoconvicts and their BS trickle Down economic policies have been throughly debunked.

[maxsolomon]

22. then we agree

just a point of order that we still have the excess capacity to fuck up iran if we wanted.

but it would be idiotic, and therefore, i see it as a likely bush action.

[Dunedain]

4. We don't import from Iran

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

[NickB79]

16. But oil is a globally traded commodity

Cut off Iran's supplies to the world market, and imported oil (which makes up 2/3 of the oil we use) shoots up in price. Saudi Arabia and Venezuala won't keep selling us oil at $70/barrel when the market price is $100 just because we've been steady customers in the past.

[Master Mahon]

5. They probably want to sock away

as much of our oil cash as they can so they can arm themselves as best as possible before the inevitable day. Why pass up current prices to aide their arms build.
I doubt they really want a war with us, with US air superiority.
The question is, should they strike first where they can inflict the most damage (Israel/US Iraq based troops), or hope it doesn't have to come to all out war. They can inflict damage, but they'll pay a heavy price for it.

[n2doc]

6. 2 problems

1, Iran uses the oil money to subsidize a huge portion of their economy, something like 60%. They have gasoline subsidized to 30 cents a gallon, for example. So they can't cut it off completely without causing big pain to their own people. Second, just not selling to the us, but selling to other countries, doesn't do much. Say they sell only to China. Then China buys less from the Saudies, who in turn sell more to us. No effect overall.
But... they can saber rattle along with Bushco and keep prices high, thus ensuring more bucks in their own pockets. In some ways Bushco has been the best thing to happen to Iran, helps with recruiting, removed an enemy, brought in tons more money. And as long as we don't nuke them they are probably (secretly) pretty happy with the way things are going.

[demosincebirth]

7. Iran exports oil, but imports all its Petrol.

It'll never stop exporting because it gets refined products back. Iran's refining capacity is very small.

[larrysh]

9. Actually......

Since oil is sold as a commodity, on the open market, Iran cutting off the US isn't as easy as it sounds. Oil loaded in tankers may be bought and sold 2,3, maybe 4 times by different companies before that oil reaches a refinery, whether that refinery is in the US, Europe, or elsewhere. The only way Iran could be sure of cutting off the US from "X" amount of oil would be to cut off ALL Iranian exports to the open market, and that would cut their own throats as well. It's like the age old arguement about oil discovered in Alaska --many people feel tha oil should be sent to the US and not Japan. But, it doesn't much matter where the oil physically comes from or where it physically lands. It adds to the supply "pool" available for purchase by any company worldwide. The ability to buy and sell a tanker of oil over and over again while still at sea also contributes to the cost per barrel,
as each sale "bids up" the final price at destination..I wish we could take oil off the commodites market and get the damn speculators out of it!

[karlrschneider]

10. I don't believe we buy oil from Iran...

unless it's changed recently.

[Joanne98]

11. At 78 dollars a barrel? No way.

[Dissenting_Prole]

15. House of Cards

Think about the world economy based on the US dollar as a big house of cards.

You have to figure out how to pull all your cards out and get back fast enough not to get hit when it comes down.

[Robbien]

17. Iran doesn't control oil exports, oil companies control it

So to cut off oil supplies, Iran would have to put pressure on the oil companies. Not an easy thing to do in this day and age.

[deaniac21]

18. We don't get oil from Iran....NONE.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm

[Amonester]

20. If Herr Rumsfeld and Darth Cheney decide to order lil' king

george to start bombing Iran, I think the BFEE's House of Saud division will have to call their firemen on numerous scenes at once...