Israeli Objectives: Curb US Deal-Making Options In Middle East (Clemons)

[KittyWampus]

http://thewashingtonnote.com/

Read the whole damned thing... it is mandatory!

Shrewd Israeli Objectives May Be to Curb US Deal-Making Options In Middle East

Some Questions Regarding Israel's Objectives: Is Israel Trying to Curb America's Deal-Making in Middle East?

snip
Why is Israel pounding most of Lebanon rather than just the South and rather than pinpointing its attack against Hezbollah assets? Why the dramatic bombing of explosive fuel centers? The attacks both in Gaza and in Beirut seem made for Fox News, CNN, and the next Schwarzenegger movie.

snip bit about Olmert making his bona fides militarily

My view is that three broad threats were evolving for Israel from the American side of the equation. One one front, the U.S. will be attempting to settle some kind of new equilibrium in Iraq with fewer U.S. forces and some face-saving partial withdrawal. To accomplish this and maintain any legitiimacy in the eyes of important nations in the region -- particularly among close U.S. partners among the Gulf Cooperation Council states -- America "might have" tried to do some things that constituted a broad new bargain with the Arab Middle East. The U.S. had even previously flirted, along with the Brits, in trying to get Syria on a Libya like track and out of the international dog house.

There was also pressure building to push Hamas -- or at least the "governing wing" of it -- towards a posture that would move dramatically closer to a recognition of Israel. Abbas was becoming increasingly entrepreneurial in creating opportunities for the constructive players in Hamas to squirm towards eventual negotiatons with Israel that could possibly be packaged in terms of "final status negotiations" on the borders and terms of a new Palestinian state. George W. Bush is the first President to actually call the Palestine territories "Palestine" and may have eventually come around on trying to pump up Abbas's legitimacy as the father of a new and different state. I am doubtful of this scenario -- but some in Israel had serious concerns about this unfolding.

Lastly, despite lots of tit-for-tat tensions and enormous mistrust, Iran and the U.S. were tilting towards a deal to negoatiate about Iran's nuclear pretensions and other goals.

Some in Israel viewed all three of these potential policy courses for the U.S. -- a broad deal with the Arab Middle East, a new push on final status negotiations with the Palestinians, and a deal to actually negotiate directly with Iran -- as negative for Israel.

snip

Israel is constraining American foreign policy in amazing and troubling ways by its actions. And a former senior CIA official and another senior Marine who are well-versed in both Israeli and broad Middle East affairs, agreed that serious strategists in Israel are more concerned about America tilting towards new bargains in the region than they are either about the challenge from Hamas or Hezbollah or showing that Olmert knows how to pull the trigger.

Another well respected and very serious national security public intellectual in the nation wrote this when I shared this thesis that Israeli actions were ultimately aimed at clipping American wings in the region. His response:

the thesis of your paper is right-on.

whether intentional or coincidental, that is what is being done right now.

snip

Steve Clemons is publisher of the popular political blog, The Washington Note.

[Coexist]

1. Wow.

Thank you for sharing that.

I am learning so much.

[KittyWampus]

2. Indeed, Clemons has just helped make this whole thing sensible

[KittyWampus]

9. Well, one last kick for a good article

[papau]

3. As the OP said "Some viewed" as negative to Israel- of course most did not

"Some in Israel viewed all three of these potential policy courses for the U.S. -- a broad deal with the Arab Middle East, a new push on final status negotiations with the Palestinians, and a deal to actually negotiate directly with Iran -- as negative for Israel."

[KittyWampus]

4. We can probably guess what position AIPAC would take

[papau]

5. I am not sure - my guess would be to not trust Iran but to OK a deal with

Leb and Hez if it included Hez moving operations north so its rockets did not hit more than a few feet inside Israel.

As to Hamas, most folks admire the quality of "government" services provided by Hamas and the lack of corruption. It is only the "destroy Israel as a jewish state" slogan/motivation that is a problem for AIPAC and the others with an interest in not advocating the destruction of the jewish state of Israel.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

6. Knowing all this about Israel's concerns, did Hezbollah time the

kidnapping to force Israel's hand just before the G8 Summit?

Or was the timing of the kidnapping just a coincidence?

Unfortunately, the current bloodshed and destruction of perhaps billions of dollars in Lebanese infrastructure warms the hearts of factions in the US and in the Arab world as well as factions in Israel.

The White House got Iraq off the front page at a crucial time.

And Israel's predictable massive escalation of the kidnapping increases the standing and power of Hezbollah throughout the Arab world. Hezbollah has provoked Israel to over-reaction, and the US has used its veto in support of Israel in the UN. Just imagine the millions of Arabs worldwide glued to their TVs, watching al-Jazeera and uniting behind their corrupt and repressive governments. What more could Arab politicians ask for?

[KittyWampus]

8. kick for a great article by Clemons

[Name removed]

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