HuffPo: Shrewd Israeli Objectives - Curb US Deal-Making Options In ME

[ourbluenation]

The blog is interesting, by the wonderful Steve Clemons

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-clemons/shrewd-israeli-objectives_b_25110.html

but the comments are equally compelling...

"Steve, I find this article interesting. Just a few days ago, I had told my wife the exact same thing. There were many countries Israel would love to see America "take out", or at least, the anti-Israel regimes in these countries. When Bush was invading and killing, you heard very little from Israel.Saddam and Iraq were a thorn in Israel's side. When Bush went into Iraq, Israel was more then happy to let America do the fighting for them. But, with Iraq a quagmire and America's credibility shot, Bush has had to turn to diplomatic negotiations, and not only in Iraq.With absolutely zero world credibility, Bush's rhetoric to attack Iran turned into deals. Israel couldn't have been happy that America went from threatening to attack Iran to offering Iran deals. But, how to turn the deals into attack? The answer was either to draw Iran into openly attacking Israel, or, getting Iran to back another enemy of Israel... enter... Hezbollah and Hamas. More on this later...

Then you have Syria. Israel and Syria have had a hate/hate relationship forever, but, Israel could never goad Syria into military actions.So, with America mired in Iraq, zero credibility with the world to further military action in the Middle East, Israel decided that no matter what they do, America would have no choice but to back to them.So, Israel ratches up the attacks on Gaza and the West Bank with the intent of provoking response. That response came from Iran who said they would fund Hamas with aid; aid that was cut by America. Now Bush had something that he could sink his teeth into, yet, where was the military response by America? No, Israel saw that wasn't enough.So, they start attacking Gaza and the West Bank, again, designed to provoke response (remember, nobody can tell Israel to stop at the UN because America has vetoed 7 UN resolutions against Israel already).Hamas, knowing they are behind the gun now, look towards Lebanon for help who has a bone to pick with Israel anyway. So, Lebanon decides to toss in with Hamas, taking the Israeli soldiers captive, which gives Lebanon a means to try prisoner exchange (remember, Israel has captives too and the international groups have done nothing).

So, Israel got its wish; they generated a war with SOMEONE who Iran is supporting, in this case, Lebanon and Hamas. Now, Bush can't deal with Iran, and, the military option comes back on the table. Any country who looks like they will overpower Israel, now has to deal with America. Israel has, once again, provoked its neighbors into a war with the full knowledge that it can't lose. America will save them. And for a bonus, Israel gets rid of enemies at America's expense."

[ourbluenation]

1. thx for the rec, whoever you are.

[ourbluenation]

3. thx for the 2nd rec but unless you respond it disappears into the

eather. This may be a bump, but if you read the blog and the comment, you'll see that it nails exactly what is going on and how it effects the US and I think it's worth sharing..a lot.

[chimpymustgo]

2. Excellent analysis. So are many of the comments following the article.

I had just read that at Huffpo...thanks for posting here.

[ourbluenation]

4. I thought this comment. was interesting too...

The only weakness to your suggestions is the fundamental assumption that Bush wants to strike peace in the Middle East.

The assumption is incorrect. George expected to be throwing his weight around in the ME by now. He is caught in the Iraq tarbaby and doesn't mind the Israelis doing some rough cuts for him right now.

Get ready for the Israelis to selectively hit Iran.

George gets the nuclear fuel purged out of Iran. Hezzbollah gets wiped from southern Lebanon. And he gets a free spin on Hamas and the Israelis, because it is sickeningly obvious that won't be resolved for decades, if ever.

You forget George's buy-in that only military action can bring peace. It's Neo-Con 101.

[MissWaverly]

6. only military action can bring peace

is that peace or pieces like we have in Iraq?

[KoKo]

5. Kick and Recommend.......

[PATRICK]

7. That's the nicer interpretation

However the US has not been making too many fence building efforts this time around. they seem to have been waiting instead for "help" like this. Statements or lack of statements can be interpreted this way. it may well be israel decided to jumpstart things, to accept an active role. It may have been that the WH was stymied without it.

On the whole, however, it looks too neat, like they were smugly expecting all this, while the world is in shock- again. Note, for my interpretation many interested parties could very well be acting according to the motives suggested by the blogger.

Motivations and purpose aside, it all amounts to the same thing as the way things are turning out. The WH is once again slow to act in any way whatsoever except to exploit the event for its darker purposes, while getting everyone else dancing and running around. The fear of WWIII by the way is a hyped element of WH blackmail against the world. Sometimes we just add to the chicken little sucker ploy without focusing on what evil is really on the move behind the spectacular drama that need never have happened.

[KoKo]

9. Yes....I have this niggling feeling about the almost "expectedness" of

what's going on. Where were the "intelligence services." Isn't the Mossad supposed to be the best in the World? What about the French, British and US under "Wonderfuher Negroponte?"

It's too "low key" the reaction to what's going on. Coordinated, expected or just "outta control?" Take your pick...

So many forces "behind the scenes" that we Taxpayers in a supposed Democratic Nation ...just don't have a clue about with the Think Tanks deciding what the "appropriate course of action is" and the rest of the world acting like when Hitler first invaded Poland ...and well.."who woulda thunk it?" Like people in power didn't know what was coming when militant forces in the ME watched what's going on in Iraq and figured it was "now or never" to take a stand against "THE WEST?" :eyes:

[papau]

8. So Israel is not victim of this latest round, but planned it? Peace w/

Iran being stopped is the plan?

And this sounds logical to folks - rather than sounding like an Iranian PR handout that tries to explain why they sponsor and are the only real funds behind one of the worst terrorist organizations in recent history - Hezbollah?

Perhaps a little background:

(from a post by DUer The Magistrate)
Hamas is a Sunni organization, a sort of home-grown version of the old Moslem Brotherhood movement that arose in the thirties of the last century, and is connected to remaining elements of this in Egypt in its initial formation. It is Arab Palestinian, and strongest in the Gaza Strip, though certainly present in the Jordan valley.

Hezbollah is a Shia organization arisen among those of that sect living in the southern portion of Lebanon. It does use some elements of the Moslem Brotherhood template in its organization as a "whole life" reform and militant body, but does not strictly speaking derive from it. Its relations with Arab Palestinians in Lebanon, oddly enough, are often pretty badly strained.

(from my rant(:
When Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah demands the release of Samir al-Kuntar ("We are working on making this year the year to free our brothers in Israeli detention. Samir Kantar and his friends" - as quoted in the Lebanon Daily Star) as part of any deal to return the 2 Israelis kidnapped from within Israel and taken to Lebanon, our media rarely reports the demand and seems never to report just who Samir al-Kuntar is.

Samir al-Kuntara is a Lebanese Druze who belonged to a pro-Iraqi terrorist organization run by Abu al-‘Abbas. He was sentenced to consecutive life sentences for his participation in a brutal terrorist attack in Nahariya in 1979. A group of terrorists infiltrated from Lebanon by sea and entered the house of the Haran family, murdering Danny Haran and his daughter Einat. Samir Kuntar killed the four-year old girl with his own hands. Police officer Eliahu Shahar was killed in a rescue attempt. Israel rejects releasing Samir Kuntar in negotiations with Hezbollah.

Indeed I find a lot of information that would put into context the days happenings missing from our media. When last May 23 Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah went on the Hezbollah TV station in Lebanon, Al-Manar TV, and said that he now had 12,000 (if not 13,000) rockets and could hit all of Northern Israel ( Nasrallah speaking at a meeting of The Resistance Culture Committee: “The resistance (i.e., Hezbollah) has more than 12,000 rockets… All of northern occupied Palestine (i.e., Israel, he does not recognize a right to exist for Israel) is within range of the rockets of the resistance…” I saw no reporting. When he boasted that Hezbollah had introduced suicide bombers into the attack on Israel and that in the "near future" he would kidnapped some Israeli soldiers, I saw no reporting. Indeed when he made the statement "As to what is more distant (that is, regarding rockets hitting further south in Israel or west into Iraq)… that will remain a secret. Today the north (of Israel) is within range of the resistance’s rockets, its ports, its bases, its factories and everything located there." - I saw no reporting despite the implications that he may be expecting a delivery via Syria of Iranian long range missiles? The ship attack was done with an Iranian missile, so the transport route seems to be working. Just what is the secret regarding his longer range missile ability, now and in the near future?

Did anyone catch a comment in US Media when Al-Manar TV on May 25 broadcast the TV documentary of terrorist operatives belonging to the so-called Jihad Warriors Battalion, a faction of Fatah/Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, training in Lebanon? How about when Nasrallah claimed that he sees Israel as the aggressor in any conflict Hezbollah starts because Hezbollah is only responding to Israeli existence - something that obviously should not be. When Nasrallah claimed that he had stopped the plan to expand Israel from the Nile to the Euphrates by his support for the Palestinian intifada, did anyone catch a mention by the portion of the US press that covers terrorists? Indeed the fact that Hezbollah (per Nasrallah) does not recognize Lebanon as a country seems to have escaped discussion, as has the fact that much of Lebanon - including many of those in the Shi’ite community - oppose but perhaps are afraid of Hezbollah (in the Lebanese newspaper Al-Mustaqbal, on May 22 and 23, two senior Shi’ite columnists (Qassem Qasir and Nasir al-Assa’ad) wrote columns detailing the weak points and the extremely problematical nature of Hassan Nasrallah’s concepts, and called upon him to provide answers in preparation for continuing the national dialog, and even noted that Hezbollah is sponsored by Iran - the column asking what the Hezbollah position will be if there is an armed confrontation between America and Iran - will Hezbollah remain neutral or will it fight on the side of Iran/Syrian interests?).

Would it help clarify the size of the "disproportionate" Israeli reaction if folks knew via US media quotes of Nasrallah saying that Hezbollah sees any Israeli home or apartment in any mid-east location between Turkey and Egypt and west of Syria/Jordan as a “settlement” in "occupied Palestine”?

Would it help clarify the discussion if US media noted that Hezbollah "liberating Shebaa Farms" (the slopes of Har Dov in the Golan Heights) is not acceptable to the international community or the UN because the UN found that those slopes were never part of Lebanon?

========================================================

Of course the key question is how did Israel get everyone to fall for the Israeli plan?

Indeed getting two groups within a week or so to violate international law and cross an international border so as to kidnap a citizen of another country, taking that citizen across the same border to hold via force, is quite an accomplishment for those tricky Israel folks. They must run the world, eh?

[originalpckelly]

10. Muslim not "Moslem"

The writer of this had an anti-Muslim sentiment.

[papau]

12. Damn - I couldn't type before the gout and arthritis - now it is an hour to

do the corrections with crappy eyesight and a memory that forgets if you did the spell check.

I suspect The Magistrate is a bit older than my own. - I give him a pass on the spelling.

Getting old sucks

As to the bias - I do not know of such from his postings.

[regnaD kciN]

11. One correction...

Hamas, knowing they are behind the gun now, look towards Lebanon for help who has a bone to pick with Israel anyway. So, Lebanon decides to toss in with Hamas, taking the Israeli soldiers captive, which gives Lebanon a means to try prisoner exchange (remember, Israel has captives too and the international groups have done nothing).

"Lebanon" (i.e. the government there) did not "toss in with Hamas." Rather, Hezbollah guerrillas operating with Syrian cover in southern Lebanon joined with Hamas.

If you will recall, Lebanon recently worked itself out from under Syrian control, but the new government there is still establishing itself, and still lacks control over the southern part of the territory. They're in no position to disarm Hezbollah, no matter how many bombs Israel rains down on Lebanon.

This is what galls many, myself included, about the whole situation. Instead of striking back against Hezbollah, Israel has concentrated its military response against civilians and the new Lebanese government, maintaining that they will keep up these attacks until the Lebanese government forces Hezbollah to disarm. But the Lebanese government lacks the authority to do so. So, they're going to keep getting hit until a) the government appeals to/deals with Syria to rein in Hezbollah (which effectively puts Lebanon back under Syrian control) or b) the entire civil infrastructure in Lebanon in wiped out, the government falls, and Syria moves back in to "maintain order" (which effectively puts Lebanon back under Syrian control).

So, in effect, the message for the ordinary citizens of Lebanon is "you lose either way."