Iraq’s salvation lies in letting it break apart (The Sunday Times)

[norml]

Iraq’s salvation lies in letting it break apart

7/16/2006 The Sunday Times

The partition of Iraq into separate Kurdish, Sunni and Shi’ite areas is the only route to peace, writes Peter Galbraith

As horrific sectarian fighting unfolded early this year after the bombing of the Askariya shrine in Samarra, I was staying in the Baghdad headquarters of Kurdistan’s president, Massoud Barzani, putting the finishing touches to my book on the future of Iraq.

Because of the headquarters’ central location in the fortified green zone, Iraq’s leaders gathered there to discuss the crisis. It was clear they saw it as a civil war.

As if to underline the point, three 9ft Katyusha rockets landed in close proximity to Barzani’s house while I was writing. Fortunately, the closest one — some 20 yards from me — was a dud.

The daily body count in Baghdad then was averaging 40, with many corpses found with eyes gouged out, flesh drilled and other marks of beastly torture. By last week it had risen to 60.


snip


http://www.kurdmedia.com/news.asp?id=12844

[afrosia]

1. Just hurry up and sort it out I want to go see...

the Hanging Gardens of Babylon.

[Jim__]

2. The problem with partitioning Iraq ...

is that it brings in other Middle Eastern countries (e.g. Turkey and Iran). Partitioning Iraq widens the crisis.

[norml]

3. How bad would things be had we tried to put Yugoslavia back together?

Iraq, like Yugoslavia, was put together after WWI out of differing parts of a fallen empire.

In the 04 debates Kerry called for "autonomy" and Dubya used the word "federal" in relation to what they saw for Iraq.

I'd say, like Yugoslavia, it would be easier to just let it break up.

[Jim__]

5. Yugoslavia still has peace keeping forces in the region.

The History of Bosnia and Herzegovina indicates that the "peacekeepers" will probably be there for a while.

That may be what Iraq needs. But, who will supply the peacekeeping troops? Partition Iraq without a peacekeeping force, and the situation will only get worse.

If we can get Iraq's neighbors to supply peacekeeping troops, we may be able to buy some time. Without that, partition is likely to be a disaster.

[norml]

6. Where would you rather be posted as a "peacekeeper"?

Iraq or Bosnia and Herzegovina?

You could even go to Bosnia and Herzegovina for vacation.

There've been zero US combat fatalities during operations in the former Yugoslavia, and the financial costs have been both shared and minimal.

Our continued occupation of Iraq does compare very favorably to that.

[Jim__]

7. The peacekeeping forces in Yugoslavia are largely from its

neighboring countries.

If we partition Iraq, what peacekeeping forces are going to be there? Of course Yugoslavia is a more peaceful country. Partitioning Iraq and walking away will not result in the situation that exists in Yugoslavia today. If we can get an Arab peacekeeping force there, we may accomplish something like that; but who's putting that force together?

The logic you're using is essentially a non-sequitur. Yugoslavia was partitioned and it's peacefule today; therefore if Iraq is partitioned, it will be peaceful. It's not quite that simple.

[Squeech]

8. On the one hand

If it was as easy as to offer the various ethnic groups and tribes their own autonomy, then we could make it happen. The hardest part would probably be getting Turkey's acquiescence, since Ankara fears their own Kurdish minority would demand the same thing-- but maybe they could buy off their most militant Kurds by shipping them out to the new Iraqi Kurdistan.

But don't forget where the oil is. A logical partition would result in the Kurds controlling the northern fields (which is as important to them as the political solution) and the Shi'ites controlling the southern fields, and the Sunnis in the middle with jack shit. (Well, they'd have the Tigris and Euphrates and all the good agriculture, but that doesn't count for much in the modern world.)

Myself, I don't think it's necessarily unfair to tell them they had their chance to rip off the other groups and it's time for them to make it on their own. But they've got bigger guns than I do.

And of course the other problem with something like this is that they're not really cloistered in their own neighborhoods. Especially in urban areas, they've all mingled, and intermarried. Trying to pry them apart could be worse than separating India from Pakistan back in the day, and we all know how well that came out...

[Bridget Burke]

4. OK. If that's what the Iraqis want.

But Partition Plans cooked up by old white guys in London don't have a good record of success.

[tenshi816]

9. I read this over breakfast Sunday morning

and thought "I should put the link up on DU" and then promptly forgot. Thanks for posting it.

[leesa]

10. As long as they are the ones making the decision to split themselves up.

No one should make that decision for them.