Anyone else find Al Qaeda's recent silence curious?

[theHandpuppet]

Considering what's going in Lebanon and Israel right now (not to exclude the rest of the ME) does anyone else find al Qaeda's silence rather curious? Disquieting, even?

[liberal N proud]

1. IMO: They are still making noise as they were before 9/11

The media just is not focusing on them because there is bigger news to use in a diversion for the American people during this critical election year.

[theHandpuppet]

2. I was speaking more specifically of the current situation...

... ie, the Israeli/Lebanese conflict.

[EFerrari]

3. Yes. I'd stay away from national monuments for a while.

And maybe mass transit systems, too.

Edit to add: :tinfoilhat:

[Cooley Hurd]

4. The other shoe dropping...

I fear it's going to be a size 14 with steel toes and a ton of shit on its heel.

If anything were to prompt another attack, it would be the recent events in Lebanon/Gaza. :(

[EFerrari]

5. If al Qaida didn't exist, BushCo's policies would bring them

into being.

I'm trying to think how they could be more provocative.

Also, the fact that this is being set into motion during an election year might tell us something about how concerned BushCo is about November.

:(

[theHandpuppet]

6. Yeah, and I think the proposed congressional resolution...

... stating unequivocal support for Israel's actions in Lebanon will go such a long way towards convincing peoples in the ME that we really give a damn about any kind of just peace. Provocative is an understatement.

[EFerrari]

8. They've bombed Red Crescent relief convoys.

I think I'm just too horrified to be verbal. Sorry.

[theHandpuppet]

9. I don't understand what they think they're accomplishing...

... when they pull shit like that. Perhpas someone a lot wiser than moi can explain it.

[halobeam]

26. IMO, many are "a lot wiser" than me, esp. as to answering..WHY??

I had a midnight conversation with my husband about what we know. Although, I read A LOT, and I know way more than the average Joe... I feel sorry for anyone who REALLY knows a lot. The old saying "Ignorance is bliss" comes to mind. I suppose I don't really feel it is a full life if you're (not you, in particular lol) are living ignorantly, therefore I read and try to understand. The problem I face is the pent up anxiety, the sadness, the disdain that manifests in my heart of hearts and sometimes I just wish I didn't know as much. My family has always frustrated me, by living what I call, "the happy-stupid people life".. they immerse themselves, in themselves and NEVER immerse themselves in community let alone, current events around the globe. Honestly, they are so cheerful still, right now, unaffected by this war, the stolen elections (do they even know?) and by God, I wouldn't even tell you their response to Katrina. I felt most unattached to my own blood family by their lack of EVERYTHING concerning Katrina.

Our conversation taking place at midnight, resulted in us searching for "happy-stupid people" on the search engine on the web. Lo and behold, there was the profile of GWB... and the site was WH.org. What a sick sense of humor life can have.

I know I'm bantering, but when I read that fellow humans are being killed, while helping others, I get just sick. Sometimes like the above poster, I can't form a sentence, and other times, I have to let it out or I will bust.

[DoYouEverWonder]

7. al CIAda only responds

when Bush needs a boost in the polls.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

10. Maybe because they're jealous of Hezbollah? n/t

[theHandpuppet]

13. I think there is a competitve aspect to these organizations

I don't know whether or not you meant this in jest, but I'll bet the convoluted machinations behind the scenes would make what goes on in Washington look like a convention of amateurs.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

15. There have actually been instances...

...of varoius Islamist groups fighting each other.

Actually, I think al Qaeda doesn't really care about Lebanon. They've never made a habit of getting involved in that particular conflict.

[Hatalles]

39. Muqtedar Khan was on CSPAN yesterday talking about this...

Radical groups at odds with each other. He was there with Dr. Ahmed Akbar and others. Senators Lugar and Boxer were on the interviewing committee.

[C_U_L8R]

11. The Republicans are doing us the most damage.

There's that old adage that when your opponent
is destroying themselves.. get out of the way.
You think AQ might have read that one?

(shaking head in disbelief and digust)

[NicRic]

14. How true !

They figure why not take a vacation ,since the current leaders of their enemy ,are constantly shooting themselves in the foot .Why do anything, except sit back and get a good laugh at how keystone cop like they are ?

[dipsydoodle]

12. It was sold on ebay

to a private collector of fairy tales.:rofl:

[halobeam]

27. good one!

:rofl:

[oc2002]

16. Al Queda is sitting back and letting Israel and Amerika do its work.

terror. recruitment. terror.

[leesa]

17. They are a construct of BushCo and they're busy right now.

[Nabia2004]

18. right, they bring them out when they need them - nt

[Kip Humphrey]

19. Didn't you hear? Bush didn't renew Bin Laden's contract.

That's why the CIA stopped pretending to look for him.

[Mir]

20. Yes, the Bush regime

is the chief recruiter for al-Qaeda, no question about it. The latter has nothing to do with this though. Hassan Nasrallah hates bin Laden and has in the past condemned as "dispicable." Hizbullah is not an Islamist jihadi group, but rather a Lebanese nationalist party and militia devoted to confronting Israel and anyone else who interferes in Lebanese affairs.

[Jacobin]

21. Billmon has some very interesting musings on your question here:

As we stumble towards World War III or IV or V (do I hear VI? VI? Going once . . . going twice . . . ) one important belligerent has yet to be heard from -- Al Qaeda, the gang that started this whole bloody business, or that at least provided Don Rumsfeld with the opportunity to "sweep it all up."

Actually, I don't know for a fact that Bin Ladin and the boys haven't broken radio silence on the latest outbreak of major-league fighting in Lebanon and Israel/Palestine. But I haven't found any communiques that bear even a semi-plausible stamp of approval from the Al Qaeda high command. I did, however, come across the following summary of a statement that's been circulating in cyber-jihadistan. It's purportedly from a Sheikh Hamed bin Abdullah Ali -- a Kuwaiti Salafist leader who was tried, but acquited, on terrorism charges last year. File it under the category of interesting if true:

He writes of Iran as possessing an expansionist, imperialist spirit, hoping to spread its power and influence into the Gulf countries and Iraq, and using the "Crusader/Zionist" alliance as a conduit for part of its goals. However, the sheikh prays: "But at best and in the end -- Allah willing -- they will be burned with the same fire which they ignited to burn the Muslims."

Iran’s "card" has presented the Shi’a Republic an opportunity to achieve its plans, which according to the message, include the coalition with Syria and Iran’s arm in Lebanon, Hezbollah, supporting parties in the countries of the Arab Peninsula and Iraq, capitalizing on the "Palestinian problem," and steps towards achieving nuclear capability . . . Sheikh Hamed al-Ali predicts that a confrontation is approaching, as the entire region of the Middle East in is between "Great War’s hands and mass chaos." But in the end, it will be in Islam’s favor, "even if Islam and its people will have a great disaster.

Rest is here. Very interesting.
:hi:

http://billmon.org/archives/002537.html

[theHandpuppet]

37. Fascinating... and worrisome

Many thanks for the link.

[Recursion]

22. AQ is not a terribly popular brand among Palestenians

My read is that al Qaeda represents the kind of pan-Islamic wishful thinking that Palestinians feel has betrayed them so many times before. Al Aqsa and Hamas are homegrown and don't put the re-establishment of a caliphate (or even Islam itself) in front of their nationlist aspirations.

Also, there is a good deal of delay in the logistics of getting messages out. Even with the support of the local population, the heavy-hitters of Al Qaeda can't just go out for a lunch meeting together. They have to coordinate a response, draft a message that meets the needs of the various internal factions, record it, and get it out to the press -- that can take a couple of weeks.

Al Qaeda's also silent because this war is something of a Shi'ite power grab -- it's working against Al Qaeda's interests and for Iran (and Iran's wet dream of this being a pan-Islamic struggle is just as much of a wet dream as Al Qaeda's hope for a pan-Islamic caliphate). Judging by their recent communiques, their focus right now is on the horn of Africa and the Maghreb, not the Levant (which they may have given up as lost to them anyways). Expect to hear more out of Mogadishu soon, IMO.

[theHandpuppet]

25. Thanks for such a cogent, informative post

Could you by chance recommend a book that would explain the history/aims of these different groups?

[Recursion]

30. I mostly just try to read Islamic message boards

Unfortunately you need to know Arabic (only takes a few months to pick up enough to read, though; it's the hearing and speaking that's hard). I haven't seen an English account of the situation that fits with what I see going on over there, but "The Israel-Palestine Conflict: One Hundred Years of War" by James L. Gelvin (Cambridge UP, 0521852897) is pretty good. The problem is most books I've seen are either about just Israel / Palestine or the rest of the middle east. What's lacking is a book that really ties in other country's aspirations and interests in the area, but this book was a pretty good stab at it.

[theHandpuppet]

32. Thanks! I wish we could compile a book list here...

... for those of us who wanting to be better-informed. The volume you recommended would be a good start.

[lonestarnot]

23. killing doesn't involve mouths, just rockets, bombs, guns what have you.

[GumboYaYa]

24. Actually, they have been much more active of late.

There have been at least six tapes in the last month, which is far more than usual. I saw a "terrorism expert" on the squawk box saying that it probably means another attack is on the way.

[moondust]

28. May be a Sunni/Shia thing.

Bin Laden warns Iraqi Shia of revenge


Saturday 01 July 2006, 23:20 Makka Time, 20:20 GMT

Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda's leader, has purportedly issued an internet message warning Iraqi Shia of retaliation if they continued to attack Sunnis.

~more~

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/271B311F-ED1A-4ECE-AB1E-9E9BD87E9485.htm

[robcon]

29. Al Qaeda has no use for Hezbollah.

Al Qaeda uses pan-Islamic solidarity only when it is useful. It is not useful for Hezbollah, the arm of Iran, to continue to compete with Al Qaeda.

The silence is probably related to the "enemy of my enemy" thing.

Arab Times editorial...

"...A battle between supporters and opponents of these adventurers has begun, starting from Palestine to Tehran passing through Syria and Lebanon. This war was inevitable as the Lebanese government couldn't bring Hezbollah within its authority and make it work for the interests of Lebanon. Similarly leader of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas has been unable to rein in the Hamas Movement.

Unfortunately we must admit that in such a war the only way to get rid of "these irregular phenomena" is what Israel is doing. The operations of Israel in Gaza and Lebanon are in the interest of people of Arab countries and the international community."

http://www.arabtimesonline.com/arabtimes/opinion/view.asp?msgID=1242

[cantstandbush]

33. You mean in the past....Lebanon has changed everything.

If 9/11 changed everything for the US, Lebanon has changed everything for the ME.

[leftofthedial]

31. the CIA/DOD/Rove/Cheney/Rummie PR department

(who write everything "al Qaeda" says)

are busy crafting the Iran-Syria version of the 9/11-WMD-Iraq story line.

[JackDragna]

34. Is it really silence?

Would we know? The vast majority of the time, Al Qaeda is just planning and not doing much of anything. That's part of the farce of the whole war on terror: we're ruining Iraq and our own civil liberties to fight organizations that do far less damage to the world than our own bull-in-a-china-shop routine.

[Igel]

35. They're waiting, I'd suspect.

It doesn't advance their cause in an unambiguous way, and it's question how it's going to play out.

If Hezbollah's squashed in dishonor, it'll be a great disgrace against the Arab people. If Israel's not victorious, and Hezbollah retains honor, it'll be a great victory for Muslims--unless the Shi'ites come out too lauded, then it's a PR nightmare. But if Hezbollah wins and it's a disgrace, then it'll be the damned Shi'ites that mucked things up. And if Israel wins and Hezbollah is seen as properly disgraced, then again, it'll be the damned Shi'ites that brough disgrace and dishonor, and covertly helped the Jews.

AQ hates Jews self-governing on Muslim land. But Shi'ites aren't good either. AQ's waiting to see what benefit it can get out of it. So far, the only thing it could say is how horrible the nasty Jews are for killing Muslims ... even if they are Shi'ites.

[ComerPerro]

36. Al Qaeda only shows up when there's nothing else to distract us

besides, if we talk about Al Qaeda, it might remind people of Bush's mess in Iraq.

[mmonk]

38. They haven't been qued yet. Right now, the focus is on

Hezbollah. Check your script.

[DireStrike]

40. It's not close enough to November

And too close to August. Not a good time to roll out a new product.

[dpbrown]

41. The neocons don't have to trot out the Al Qaeda bogeyman because Israel...

...is doing their work for them.


How many Iraqis died today? More than in Lebanon and Israel. But who is sending ships to Iraq to rescue them?

No one.