I don't know what Israel is going to do.

[bigendian]

Any military historians in the house?

They say they aren't going in to stay and I believe that.
What are the chances of them clearing everyone and everything out of that border for a short distance and creating a DMZ?

I'm at work so I will check back periodically.

[melnjones]

1. Without UN help,

I think the chances are pretty slim without an intense amount of fighting on the ground and lots of deaths.

[ShortnFiery]

5. Both Sides have fired up so much HATE and desire for retribution ...

An invasion would seal the deal that the violent mechanisms of Hezbollah will be an even more integral part of the fabric of Lebanon for decades to come.

Vietnam is a good comparison: We attempted to make the North submit to us and killed over 2 million Vietnamese. Guess what? They still kept coming at us and would have done so till the last man/woman.

These peoples must integrate fully into each others communities in order to have "a prayer" of attaining a lasting peace. To segregate entire nations on the basis of Religion or any other affiliation only serves to dehumanize "the other."

I fear that these two sides will be killing each other for the next century. That is, if we don't destroy ourselves with Nuclear Winter before they integrate. :(

[fooj]

2. They occupied southern Lebanon for some 18 years...

I'm not convinced that they "are not going to stay".

[Karenina]

32. They want the WATER

from the Litani River.

[kenny blankenship]

3. Do what they usually do: change facts on the ground

Pull the Shia of southern Lebanon out by the roots. Plant Christians and Druze.
When they invaded in 1982, Israel sought to install an ethnic minority govt in Beirut that would be dependent and docile. That proved too ambitious. The next best thing would be what if there were no Muslims on our border?
That's more doable. The Hezbollah come from a Shia enclave in the south of Lebanon. Get rid of the Shia, and you get rid of Hezbollah. PLus, the international community can recognize and reject an attempt to install a puppet gov't by invasion. They call you all sorts of names and pass resolutions declaring that what you're trying to do will be stopped and reversed. But if your goal is to cause hundreds of thousands of people to flee for their lives with only what they can carry, something very different happens: the international community gets all freaked out about the welfare of the people fleeing. They call them refugees and try to funnel food and medicine to them in camps located far from the villages and towns you destroy. That's right: the UN will actually HELP YOU get rid of these people!

When the new residents in the border area grow unruly, pull them out too. It's like crop rotation, only the manure comes from bodies of people.

[Igel]

14. Yeah, but what happened was that Hezbollah

managed to persecute the Christians that were there. They were interfering with Allah's Party's supremacy.

They'd sided or cooperated with Israel, and deserved it, you see. Little public outcry; Syria ran things in Lebanon and while Syria officially intervened on behalf of Maronite Xians in the '70s, support for Hezbollah >> support for Christians.

Side or cooperate with Hezbollah, you're blessed.

[BillZBubb]

4. Israel already tried an failed at occupation of part of Lebanon.

So, they are probably going to do what they always do: Go in with a heavy hand and blow things up. Then they'll whine for somebody else to come in and do the occupation for them. Then they'll withdraw and declare victory.

[malaise]

6. The bigger question is what happens

if Israel does go in and Hezbollah and the Lebanese army inflct serious wounds on the IDF. The Lebanese President says his army will join Hezbollah if Israel comes in. Israel cannot be stupid enough not to expect a trap.

[ShortnFiery]

7. Well on the basis of Military History, this bombing campaign

falls somewhere between "moron and imbecile." A military solution to complex problems is not ever the effective solution. Militaries are great to "take over" a country, but then it's the DIPLOMACY and INTEGRATION of peoples that builds bridges to peaceful nation states in the future.

The only way to circumvent this is to establish a Dictatorship or Totalitarian Society where the ruler(s) establish order with absolute power and brutality, i.e., they rule with FEAR.

There's no simple answer to establishing peace between Israel and it's neighbors, but I have to convey to them, continuing to use a heavy hand, i.e., The Mad Max approach, ain't gonna work. :(

[Fredda Weinberg]

9. I guess that's why we're still at war with German & Japan

No? Then I suppose a military solution to complex problems can be an effective solution.

[Hardrada]

13. Incorrect models.

These nations were not tenacious guerilla fighters with a lot of volunteers eager to help them out. And bombing with conventional weaponry did not decrease their resistance in any case. Germans even increased their war production due to clever men like Albert Speer.

[Fredda Weinberg]

19. May I suggest you reread your history books?

The Japanese terrified the US with the Kamikaze pilots - guerilla fighters in the Pacific context. And if you don't think overwhelming military force didn't reverse the German advances, then you'll have to explain what did.

[Hardrada]

33. Apples and oranges.

You must make an attempt to distinguish these historical situations. I think we are looking more at an England/IRA sort of situation which force actually made more fucked up than anything else. No, no matter how much you blood you want spilled for your cause, it will not ultimately cause you any solace.


Pax vobiscum

[ShortnFiery]

20. Germany and Japan were HOMOGENEOUS societies, the ME countries

are NOT. I hate it especially when republicans hold up Japan and Germany as examples.

We loved "the krauts" :oops: The German people so much that prisoners of war were sent to work on the farms in the USA. They loved the Americans take over because their leaders SURRENDERED to our forces. That ain't gonna happen in the ME. Further, they accepted our occupation because they sure as shit realized that the Ruskies (The Russians) we FAR FAR FAR more brutal and cruel.

During WWII, there were times when a red cross flag waved on the battle field and both sides DID NOT fire. In fact, there were respites of cease fire where medics could come forward (on both sides) to pick up their wounded. Uh hum, that ain't gonna happen in ME Wars.

Finally, Japan was about as homogenous a society as one could hope for AND they SURRENDEDED unconditionally to us. Further, instead of going in with an half-assed contingents of troops, we brought an overwhelming presence of USA Military to "keep the peace and security."

Both countries were far more homogeneous than ANY within the Middle East. PLUS we weren't battling the INSANE Religious Converts of any one organized religion. Whew! And the cherry on top is that BOTH of these Country's leaders unconditionally surrendered which gave the occupiers a "green light" to settle these nations into democracies.

There were flare ups, but the presence of overwheming force and an cooperative populace in general made the Occupation and democratization of Both Japan and Gemany possible.

The above situation will not EVER happen, if for no other reason we have Religious Zealots (on seemingly ALL sides) of MANY stripes. Also we can not say that Israel has taken positive steps to allow their people an opportunity to fully integrate within the arab community. "Separate but Equal" only breeds more hatred of "the other."

Finally, we might of accomplished this in Iraq but it still was a long shot. Had we come in and remained with overwhelming force, say 300,000 troops, every facet of their security could be monitored. They would have admired the USA troops for protecting them against looting and secured those AMMO facilities. THEN we could have brought in our Diplomacy teams. All the diplomacy would be occuring on a lock-down. However, the Iraqi people would have greatly appreciated the troops keeping "law and order." Yes, we could have done the above.

Nope, it's outright DELUDED (if you can embrace the above) to consider that we have a ghost of a chance to successfully occupy a country and tame it from within.

[Fredda Weinberg]

26. Your post makes no sense

Yes, the Japanese were homogeneous - what does that have to do with anything?

I can see your hostility to religion (I'm secular now but was raised devout and see no reason to despise what I was) but neither Israel nor Hezbollah are fighting a religious conflict. This is your problem, not theirs.

But you concede that overwhelming force was at least partly responsible for changing the relationship the US has with the former Axis powers. I'm glad we could agree on something.

[ShortnFiery]

31. I'm an active Franciscan AND a member of Pax Christi ... too funny!

You are way off the mark. I know I know and will admit that I place in many asides but my post DID make sense. Please take the time to read it again?

No, with all the history of killing and retribution with the additional Religious Zealotry, I regret that Invasion and Occupation, even with overwhelming force will NOT EVER work in the ME. Well, unless you want to emplace a BRUTAL and CRUEL dictator, like "The Shah" in Iran or a "Saddam Husein type in Iraq. Performing the forgoing and thus giving the people such harsh rule would be truly A SIN that will send it's promoters to the 7th Ring of hell.

I wish that I was wrong, but I'm not. :cry:

May peace be with you dear heart. :hi:

[Tesha]

23. I think you missed something...

> I guess that's why we're still at war with German & Japan

I guess you didn't read the sentence I'll quote below from the earlier
post. Yes, military might stopped the fascists, but it was the Marshall
Plan that brought the German and Japanese people "into the fold".

> Militaries are great to "take over" a country, but then it's
> the DIPLOMACY and INTEGRATION of peoples that builds bridges
> to peaceful nation states in the future.


Tesha

[Fredda Weinberg]

27. Can we agree force was necessary? If so, then

we really don't have a disagreement.

[Tesha]

29. Force was "necessary but not sufficient". Yes? (NT)

[Fredda Weinberg]

30. Exactly my point n/t

[bigendian]

8. Seriously?

I hadn't heard that. I thought the Lebanese army was more ceremonial. I visited their website and it looked like the society pages.

Link:

http://www.lebarmy.gov.lb/?ln=en

[malaise]

10. Heard it since yesterday

and saw him on LBC America, but just saw him saying it on CNN International.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. They Look Like Any Young Men's Association

eom

[tocqueville]

21. don't misunderestimate them

Ground forces

5 Regional Commands
11 Mechanized brigades
1 Republican Guard brigade
1 Commando regiment
5 Special Forces regiments
1 Airborne regiment
1 Navy Commando regiment
2 Artillery regiments

Within the Ground Forces, Combat Service Support Units include:

Medical Services
Support brigade
Logistics brigade
Military police
Independent work regiment

they have Mirage jets, and Gazelle helicopters too.

They are trained mostly in the US, France, UK and Italy.

Of course they cannot match the IDF but they can cause real damage, specially if they know they have nothing to lose and fight to the end, which is probable...

[Igel]

16. Then the bombing will spread to the non-Shi'ite areas

of Lebanon and to all military bases.

Occasional strikes in those areas against some Lebanese military bases have been reported with overgeneralized headlines, allowing us to infer that the damage to those areas is as great as to the Shi'ite/pro-Hezbollah areas.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

11. Whatever they're doing...

their actions in Lebanon don't make any sort of sense.

There's nothing they can achieve in Lebanon that would be any sort of "success." The theory about them looking for pretext for war with Iran is still very credible.

[Igel]

17. And what they had before was leading to

nothing better.

Private militias owned by Islamic supremacist organizations seldom stockpile the kinds of munitions that Hezbollah had with no intent to use them eventually. But only when they're ready.

They probably weren't ready.

But it can't be ruled out that this isn't what Hezbollah wanted.

[tocqueville]

15. they are going to get their own Iraq

things have changed compared to the last war. Besides the Arab masses are much more defiant. Abdullah II and Mubarak are sitting on a powder keg. Things can change very rapidly, the Shiites can wreak havoc in Iraq, Syria is still powerfully armed etc... etc...

The West won't back Israel, except the US. And maybe it's not sufficient.

If I was Israel, I'll be very, very careful....

[lovuian]

18. I think Israel is trying to make Syria capitulate thats where they

are heading...Thats been the goal for sometime...

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

22. Quagmires are becoming very popular in the Middle East.

At least among the bosses who engineer them. Of course, the civilians will be required to do as they're told or die.

[Tesha]

24. You'd think it would take more water, ehh? ;-) (NT)

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

25. They settle for blood.

[Tesha]

28. Apparently. :-( (NT)

[LeftCoast]

34. They're going to turn So. Lebanon into a no-go zone

They'll bombard it from the air and with artillery. No ground soldiers needed for that. It will be an uninhabited zone for the long-term, imo.