Dividing Iraq into 3 countries will be a disaster

[ck4829]

To divide the country into something for Sunnis, Shi'a, and Kurds, you have to move people.

What do you think will happen when Extremists on all sides see the people of the other sides moving around?

:nuke:?

[theHandpuppet]

1. And the Turks would be none to happy, either

That's the next area which will implode.

[uppityperson]

4. they are threatening to invade Iraqi Kurdistan right now

or did you mean Turkey as a whole?

[flamin lib]

11. What I want to know is

If Kurdistan attacks Turkey from the rear, will Greece help?

[shain from kane]

14. I always fall asleep after eating turkey.

Sort of like liquor in front, poker in the rear.

[theHandpuppet]

29. Thank you for such an adult contribution to the discussion

:eyes:

[shain from kane]

33. Maybe you should read the previous comment a little more closely.

What exactly was that person talking about?

Of course, you may have to have your mind in the gutter, instead of an ivory tower.

"If Kurdistan attacks Turkey from the rear, will Greece help?"

North, south, east, west, northeast, southwest, etc. I can understand, but "rear" and "Greece" (grease)?

Warning! Another Christian fundamentalist on the discussion boards?

[theHandpuppet]

34. Not playing your childish games

Either the question was intended as a puerile joke (and one that is so old it even predates me) or one so ignorant of the geopolitics of the region it isn't worth an answer. I know what YOURS was.

[philb]

18. not clear on this

are you referencing Kurds in northern Iraq or does this assume Iranian and Iraqi Kurds?

this is a very interesting question though....because it does renew the debate regarding the very existence of "Kurdistan" (disregarding provincial and regional recognition) the treaty of Lusanne (spelling??)

i don't believe was ever accepted due to ethnic (differences)??

been wrong before..i would appreciate a history lesson from anyone that really knows

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[uppityperson]

32. Did you really mean to insult the person asking this question?

What I want to know is if Kurdistan attacks Turkey from the rear, will Greece help?

[shain from kane]

35. I'm catching a lot of flak from Mama Bear, trying to protect the cubs. n/t

[theHandpuppet]

28. No, I didn't mean Turkey as a whole

I was speaking specifically of the Turkish/Kurdish conflict. Sorry I didn't make that clear.

[mmonk]

2. Too many countries to rule. We can't handle the one.

[varun]

3. When Pakistan was carved out of India

millions died rioting and fighting...and they are still fighting.

[barb162]

6. Maybe the lines weren't drawn very well.

The Moslem areas of Kashmir probably should have gone to Pakistan.

[liberalpragmatist]

12. There were no ways to draw good lines

The populations were incredibly mixed, there were substantial Hindu populations in Pakistan and substantial Muslim populations in India; plus Kashmiris (at the time) were actually quite pro-India, which is largely what gave the Indian army the confidence that it could occupy the province; the leading Kashmiri political party (a Muslim one) was allied with the secular Congress Party and its leaders had openly been scornful of Pakistan at the time.

[barb162]

39. Yes I know there are areas of mixed populations and it is

incredibly difficult to draw lines with these areas, but it was too bad the people who drew the lines back then spent so much time listening to maharajas and not more time with the religious and sect differences.

[barb162]

5. You're making several assumptions here stated as fact

If the three groups don't get along, maybe it's way better they split out in separate countries.

[Ravenseye]

7. HUGE mistake

Both Iran and Turkey are opposed to any Kurdish country in the north, because it'll threaten their terriroties next to it with large kurdish majorities who will want to split off and join the new country. Pressur efrom those two will prevent that from being viable.

A Sunni Arab state in the center would be a problem because there is little oil on that land, creating a hugely poor, landlocked country full of very angry people in the center. They'd invade a southern Shia state almost immediately.

[liberalpragmatist]

8. Partitions rarely work

I've written about this extensively in previous posts and threads. It may well come to partition, and sometimes it's the least bad option, but it's almost always pretty bad.

Historically the breakup of countries has not led to greater stability, prosperity, or democracy, but actually the OPPOSITE. It's very difficult to separate communities that have become intertwined, and it's very difficult to separate assets. All of which leads to rivalries and often renewed military conflict.

The best examples would be India/Pakistan and Ireland. Ireland wasn't kept united because it was believed it would result in civil war; maybe that was the right call, but it's very hard to imagine that there would STILL be a violent conflict between Catholics and Protestants if the country were united today. India and Pakistan are a better example because the violence and chaos that accompanied the partition wound up worsening Hindu-Muslim relations for decades. The results were economic devastation in much of Eastern India and in Pakistan. Pakistan was never able to emerge out of the chaos to become a democracy and the army quickly became the only force capable of holding the country together. As a result, instead of an internal, political dispute, you have a a regional cold war that has frequently grown hot and led to all out conflict. Not a pretty situation.

This is a good interview from Peace Magazine with a scholar on secession, Robert Schaeffer, that covers many of the same points, in depth:

http://www.peacemagazine.org/archive/v11n3p12.htm

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

9. Well, it's hardly a success now.

Perhaps, leaving the decisions about their own country to the Iraqis might work. What's happening now certainly isn't.

[Ravy]

10. How is it our choice?

I say let them work it out.

The only way to unite them is by force. They don't seem to choose to be united in Governmnet.

[philb]

19. that does not seem to work

in any other venue..........

how in the world do you "UNITE BY FORCE"?

call Kofi........and HURRY!

[Ravy]

25. That was my point.

The only way to unite by force is to continue the occupation, or put in a dictator like Saddam who can enforce it.

If you let the Iraqis be "free" it is unlikely that they will remain as one country. The only way to do it is to take away their freedom to do otherwise.

[JuniperLea]

13. Blame the English chartographers who divided it in the first place

Maybe these people want their boarders put back the way they were.

[maxsolomon]

15. it already IS a disaster

there's only on real road to peace in the region: reconstitute the Ottoman empire. :sarcasm:

[acmavm]

17. You just might have something there. That's when all the

trouble started. Of course Britain knew best how the Middle East should be. To hell with thousands of years of tradition and boundaries.

[The Magistrate]

16. So Will Keeping It As One Be, Sir

The thing is a disaster no matter how it is sliced....

"Most problems start out as solutions."

[philb]

21. heh, heh

so now we are a solution looking for a problem.........?

way too much time mushroom picking i think........

EOM :)

[BillZBubb]

20. As opposed to the disaster of trying to hold it together?

Iraq was going to be a disaster the minute Busholini attacked.

Nonetheless, I agree with you. I think an independent Kurdish state will be the cause of far more regional grief than people can imagine. That will bring Turkey and Iran into the conflict as the Kurds in those countries push for union with the Kurdish state.

The Sunni, Shiite bloodshed will be massive as well.

[philb]

23. that is really the problem

the Kurdish people were supposed to have a State, kinda way back around 1920.....well, that didn't work out;

I don't think Sunni and Shiite (Shia) unrest (wrt Kurds) are really at issue because Saddam created a whole new dynamic....
as a second generation english/german/seminole indian (native american for the sensitive)i just like to question the "apparently" obvious.

[LSK]

24. Turkey can be restrained by the EU

They want to join the EU.

[BillZBubb]

26. Not if it means ceding territory to the Kurds.

If you think otherwise, you haven't been paying attention to your history. The Turks will put down any Kurdish move for independence with the full force of their military. They won't think twice about the EU.

[LSK]

31. speaking of history...

50 years ago, would anyone think France and Germany would be so close???

[Bonhomme Richard]

22. My understanding is that under the Ottoman Empire.........

that region was set up as 3 distinct "states" and after Turkey lost control of the region after the first world war. It was Britain that set up the country as one, mixed region.

[HarukaTheTrophyWife]

36. You're right.

Thank British imperialism for helping Iraq become the fucked-up nation it is today. Honestly, I think Bill Maher had the right idea. Give them back Saddam Hussein, say we made a mistake and we just go away. At least he kept them somewhat in line, they had more freedom, and they were breeding less terrorists.

[gatorboy]

27. The want to get a good idea on how tha will work out?

They should check out. Israel/Palestine. I hear that's going swimmingly!

[Johonny]

37. Not sure

The US carved itself out of England and after a looong period of open and cold war between the 2 countries things seem pretty good now. In the case of these long standing disputes people are about as happy as they make up their minds to be. If they want to continue to blow up each other over boarder disputes from 3-4 generations ago... there is very little you can do about it. My prediction is that either keeping Iraq 1 country or making it 3 countries will do nothing to end violence as long as the factions involved are more interested in settling generational scores than progressing towards future goals.

[lastknowngood]

38. But it worked so well when India was divided between India and

Pakistan, with the peaceful Kashmir area as a buffer.

[lonestarnot]

40. As if it already fucking isn't?