What is Israel's strategy for Lebanon?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

Please, no flames or attacks. This is not intended to be an attack, a defense or anything "political" ABOUT the invasion, the H'zbollah missiles or any other aspect of the conflcit, but an honest review of what the strategy is, what is the end goal and what are the chances of it succeeding without a total collapse of Lebanon and the surrounding area.

I heard what Condi Rice tried to say about it, and once you distill her words to basic facts, her points evaporated like the contents of a cheap bottle of scotch within reach.

I have seen the strong PR efforts by the Israeli diplomatic corps, choreographed, danced, and sung in unison, all in perfect harmony.
I have heard and seen the GOP clones applauding and supporting Israel without regard to what actual actions are taken by either side. I have heard weak defenses of H'zbullah by a very few. But, still, I don't get it. What is their plan? their goal? their exit strategy? And, still, I cannot fathom what they plan to accomplish.

They have attacked civil buildings and military structures, but then they blow up every bridge leading out of the country.
They claim to only want their 2 men back, but have sacrificed dozens and killed many hundreds in the process. With the many tons of explosives they have dropped, it would not surprise me if their attacks resulted in their killing their own captured men.

If you look back in time and analyze the previous invasion of Lebanon, Israel had its ass handed to it. It was like self-imposed torture holding on to land that did not want to be held. (for US, a great example is present day Iraq. For the USSR, Afghanistan) Do they really think that a second human cleansing will fix the problems they caused the first time around? or will it only create more martyrs and anger surviving children?

If they invade, create and occupy a base anyplace within Lebanon, our (US) only success story in the ME will collapse like a house of cards in a hurricane. They should not have forgotten their earlier Lebanese lesson. If they continue to strafe and bomb, (as the limit) they will never find all the enemy. We proved that air power alone cannot win a war, not long term. If they try to create a buffer zone, that will only delay the next cycle of attacks, invasion, re-supply and death.

Perhaps I am looking too hard for a better answer. Perhaps I am too stupid and ignorant to understand what their goal is. Perhaps I am too cynical and jaded to take Condi's words at face value, as well as the statements of the Israeli ambassadors to the US and UN. Perhaps the answer is so close to my eyes, that I cannot read and comprehend it. Perhaps they themselves do not know why they are doing what they are doing, and do not have an exit strategy planned. If so, they may face the same quagmire that we face in Iraq.

So, again, NO FLAMING EITHER SIDE, please! I really want to understand more, and your insights have always been helpful in the past.

[gp]

1. this isnt just about Lebanon/Israel this is about the whole ME

First of all the US fully approves of Israel's actions because they need a diversion from this
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2404098

Secondly, I dont know wich way it's gonna go exactly but i'm convinced
that along the way we'll see an US or Israeli attack on IRAN.
And as you probably know Hezbollah is Iran's proxy.
By taking them out before an US attack on IRAN,
they neutralize IRAN's ability to open multiple fronts.

[imlost]

6. I agree. Iran will be attacked.

The innocent are fucked! While the leaders feed there egos.

[RB TexLa]

2. Take out the terrorists

clear out a buffer zone and then let the Lebanese or international force enforce it after they have cleared it out. And yes a ceasefire right now would accomplish nothing.

[The Stranger]

9. That wouldn't explain the air bombing campaign against innocent Lebanese

many of whom detest Hezbollah. If they wanted Hezbollah, they would have gone into South Lebanon and gotthen them.

[cali]

3. someone just posted this

Stratfor assessment of H'zbollah's goals and Israel's likely response. It's pretty interesting.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1696438

[ChairmanAgnostic]

4. thanks. It is interesting. nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The Israelis Are Trying To Create A Buffer Zone

Once it is created they believe or hope that the United Nations, the Lebanese Army, or a multinational force will maintain it.

[malaise]

8. The Israelis want

The Litani river.

[Igel]

7. The place to start is by listening to the two sides.

They're fairly explicit about their goals. Everybody wants to squish Hezbollah's and Israel's goals into their personal viewpoints to make sense of them, but it's usually more reasonable to try to figure out things from the participants' point of view.

Hezbollah wants to defend Islam and spread it; they want Israel gone; and they want greater authority.

Israel wants Hezbollah gone; they don't want another wannabe insurgency on their border gaining political power while claiming they want Israel destroyed; they want their borders secure, and secure borders.

Hezbollah's picked up AQ's strategy, it seems: since AQ claims sole credit for bringing down, with Allah's help, the USSR, it's become common currency that any Islamic insurgency will produce the downfall of great powers and allow Islamic fascism (here defined as a handful of people with a totalitarian ideology, which simultaneously preaches victimization and superiority, and seeks to control thought and public life in order to wage war).

Israel's strategy is a bit more problematic. They'll likely lose, but they'd lose this battle anyway. Not do anything, and they lose. Do this, they lose. It's a question as to how important the relative losses are. Stay tuned.

Pretty much everything that's happened is compatible with the people's goals. Other analyses tend to need to leave out much more data, or assert that quotes from people that are long dead reflect current policy. But if some accept these goals as the actual ones, they'd wind up on the 'wrong' side or have to make a moral judgement they don't want to make.