Senate Races ideas: Who will win as of now?

[SammyBlue]

Only competitive races, Democrats need 7 seats:

Arizona - Kyl is going to win. Pederson's running a VERY weak campaign. (I'm in Arizona).
REPUBLICAN KEEP

Florida - Harris will lose big time.
DEMOCRAT KEEP

Maryland - This will stay in Democratic hands.
DEMOCRAT KEEP

Minnesota - This will stay in Democratic hands.
DEMOCRAT KEEP

Missouri - There is alot of unhappiness with Talent and his dedicated to Bush will hurt him.
DEMOCRAT PICK UP (6 more seats)

Montana - Burns is in alot of trouble and his polls numbers are SAGGING bad.
DEMOCRAT PICK UP (5 more seats)

Nebraska - As much as I think he's a Republican, Ben Nelson will keep.
DEMOCRAT KEEP

Nevada - I don't see Carter winning this seat, until Reid and the National Committee helps BIG time.
REPUBLICAN KEEP

New Jersey - Republican in New Jersey implode very quickly. Whitman won because to combat deficits, Florio raised taxes. Democrats will win this seat.
DEMOCRAT KEEP

Ohio - DeWine is DEAD!!!
DEMOCRAT PICKUP (4 more seats)

Pennsylvania - Santorum is DEAD!!!
DEMOCRAT PICKUP (3 more seats)

Rhode Island - I believe Lincoln Chafee will lose finally. His Republican Party is not helping him (not conservative enough).
DEMOCRAT PICKUP (2 more seats)

Tennessee - Ford I don't believe will carry this state. I believe the Republicans are too entrenched in Tennessee with Frist to switch.
REPUBLICAN KEEP

Virginia - Allen's a VERY strong candidate and Webb's not connecting with the public yet.
REPUBLICAN KEEP

Vermont - Sanders will win hands down. Hopefully, he'll lose the independent and become a Democrat.
DEMOCRAT PICKUP (1 more seat)

Washington - Cantwell will win easily
DEMOCRAT KEEP

Wisconsin - Kohl will retain by a 2 - 1 margin.
DEMOCRAT KEEP

If I am right, this leaves us 50-50, so Republicans still control. I believe it will come down to Tennessee if the Democrats get control of the Senate. I'm not too sure of the House.

[abluelady]

1. Virginia

could go for Webb. He's got lots to learn but with some good handlers, he has a chance to beat Allen. He's not very liberal which will go over with the Repukes who don't like Bush. Allen has been a rubber stamp for Bush and that could hurt him.

[MiniMe]

16. Allen is already running ads locally

He must be a little worried, they are the only political ads that I have seen so far.

[abluelady]

17. He Is Worried

and unfortunately he has big bucks. It is horrible that in our system dollars win elections.

[Catch22Dem]

2. Which is why, at this stage, we need to support Nelson

So many people bitch about him, and justifiably so, but the time for bitching is during the primaries. He's the candidate now, and him winning is vitally important.

What do you base your RI prediction on? Do you have any Webb & Ford poll numbers?

[SammyBlue]

3. Contacts and friends I speak to who are involved in Rhode Island politics

That go to the URI.

TENNESSEE POLL NUMBERS
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/May%202006/Tennessee%20Senate%20May.htm

VIRGINIA
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/June%202006/virginiasenate061606.htm

[Rosco T.]

4. I wouldn't count Carter out in Nevada just yet...

[SammyBlue]

6. Rosco, Carter's behind by 17 points.

He needs help in Nevada.

[saltpoint]

5. A savvy take on those races. I certainly won't miss Mike DeWine or

Rick Santorum one bit, will you?

Virginia and Tennessee.

It would be just great to pick one or both of those up also, added to your projections. I hate it that Dick Cheney might preside over the 50-50 when a stronger push in Virginia might have rendered Cheney's tie-breaker vote obsolete.

[NNadir]

7. Don't flame me, but we don't know what's going to happen in CT.

Joementum's independent campaign makes the whole game somewhat difficult to predict.

Then there's Diebold.

[SammyBlue]

8. Joementum is a DINO, but he is a Democrat. If Lamont wins, it's not

a Democratic pickup, it's a Democrat keep.

[calico1]

15. No Diebold in CT. n/t

[Cleita]

9. No one on the Democratic side will win unless we insist

on transparent and well audited election.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

10. I wouldn't put Ohio in the bag

I just don't trust the GOP machine there when it comes to voting

also, i put Minnesota (as much as I hate to say it about the land of Wellstone) in the toss-up category

And Sanders isn't joining any party in Vermont. He on our side, though-We need to let Bernie be Berrnie.

[WI_DEM]

11. Right now I would predict a 3-5 seat gain

I think PA, OH, and Montana are very strong possibilities followed by RI and MO. But in a strongly democratic year we could go all the way if events continue as they are.

p.s.
Of Democratic seats I'm not so certain that Cantwell in WA is inevitable.

[SensibleAmerican]

12. I don't think Brown will win in Ohio

DeWine is up by 7 points there.

I see McCaskill beating Talent by a point or two, but that election can go either way.

I see Chafee losing. Whitehouse has really pumped up his campaign there.

Tennessee will stay Republican, but Ford has a great chance to win. Frist is not that popular in TN.

New Jersey may go for Menendez, but this election is a toss up. I see Maryland as safe, unless Mfume is nominated.

All in all I see the Republicans keeping the Senate 51-49 (with losses in PA, MT, MO, and RI)

[oberliner]

13. Brown is leading Dewine by 8 pts

That's a DEM pickup for sure!

[cali]

14. RE Sanders:

He'll never become a democrat, and we Vermonters like that just fine. I agree about NJ. I also think Montana is an actual pick up, along with PA. Everyplace else? Too soon to tell.

[LynneSin]

18. I'm not ready to put Ohio in the democratic column

I wish I could but with Black"Not-So"well controlling the elections in Ohio he's going to have to give DeWine the win in order to make his win look 'legitimate'