BBC; Israel says it will not allow Iran to have nukes

[upi402]

Here's the spark the oilmen want.
Anyone else see that report?
Any bets on how this will play out?

[neuvocat]

1. Isreal won't be able to do anything about it.

The U.S. has lost a great deal of cash and resources and it will not be able to sustain Isreal for much longer. Add to that the fear by surrounding arab nation of invasion by countries such as the U.S. and you'll find a nation quickly silenced.

[northzax]

2. yeah, they probably can

if they know where the facilities are, the Israeli military certainly has the technical capability to take them out. Whether they could survive the aftermath is a different story altogether.

[Behind the Aegis]

4. I am sure Israel could survive the aftermath.

However, this sounds more like setting Israel up as the scapegoat, yet again.

[neuvocat]

5. ...

How exactly would Isreal be scapegoated here? Serious question.

[Behind the Aegis]

9. Response.

Because any action carried out by the Israelis would be seen as a move by the Bush administration or part of their 'plans.' Thus, another ME war would be laid at the feet of Israel, much like the illegal occupation of Iraq, which is blamed on Israel by both the right and left.

[tavalon]

12. Well, if you want them to not be blamed

you might want to encourage them not to FOLLOW THE DAMN SCRIPT!

Or, in other words, to STFU.

[Behind the Aegis]

15. I am a citizen of the US.

I do not vote in Israel, nor do I hold a political position there. There is a script here...and you are following it to a "T!"

[tavalon]

16. I figured that one out a long time ago

but you have such a personal vested interest that I thought you might have the ear of someone or someones there.

[Behind the Aegis]

19. I do have a personal interest.

However, it involves my heart, not my access to ears.

[Name removed]

43. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Behind the Aegis]

45. We know your position. n/t

[Coastie for Truth]

78. Seattle/Austin?

"Following the damn script" might just be putting a mole into their organization and putting some malignant code into their dll's and cab files and regedit.

In order to run a fuel plant - it's all under computer control.

<>
<>

Altho I guess that they use Sun Java vice MS Windoze - but commuting between Seattle and Austin, you would know that better then I ;) ...

Yes - I have written, debugged, and implemented process design and proces control code - Fortran, C, C++, Java.

[northzax]

7. like after Osirik?

I have no doubt that Israel would prefer to solve the Iran problem through diplomacy and carrot/stick approaches. I also think it's fair to assume that if that fails, Israel will take unilateral action to solve the problem. it will make the Middle East even more a cluster fuck than it currently is, however, but Israel can't afford another nuclear power in the region at this time.

[tavalon]

8. Then, they must be might pissed at us

We're creating them right and left. Axis of Evil and all that crapola. A small country would be crazy not to consider it in this environment.

[Behind the Aegis]

14. I agree, on some points.

Diplomacy is what Israel would want. However, given the current conditions in Israel, I don't think a strike, like what happened in '81 (at the behest of the US), would occur. To be honest, I don't know that Israel even would care that another nuclear power came to be in the ME (maybe Syria or Lebanon), but Iran, especially of recent, has threatened to wipe her off the map! I think they take that very seriously.

[tavalon]

21. The thing is

that I think Isreal has much better intelligence than anyone else, especially us, has. I think they are well aware of how far away this problem is, time wise. Why the sabre rattling? Or, are you saying they didn't really say that? I could buy that one, actually.

[Behind the Aegis]

23. MI

They have access like no other group, for obvious reasons. The saber-rattling is coming from both sides. Or did you not know this? Is Iran also apart of following 'the script?'

There have been a number of reports of Israeli officials stating they want continued talks, but other options remain open. How is this any different than other nations saying the same damn thing?

[tavalon]

38. It isn't any different

and we will share the blame, with Isreal and Iran. All three of us are doing a mighty fine job of reading our scripts. I wish someone would come up with something new. Like a coup,for starters. In our country, just for a change.

[Behind the Aegis]

50. Maybe a new script is needed.

The script should include that Israel and the US are not responsible for all evil in the world or trying to commit it. That script would also include that Iran is a country filled with people that don't believe the same as their government...much like, oh, I don't know, the US and Israel?

[tavalon]

61. I'm not disagreeing with you there

I just heard on AAR that Iran just did a complete clamp down on their citizens access to the internet. One of the primary reasons being to quell an increasing air of dissent. Gives one pause, eh?

I don't have a black and white point of view here. Yes, I think both the US and Isreal are acting the asses here. I think Iran can keep up with us big boys on that front.

[northzax]

80. so, everything else, including US intervention fails

and Iran is 6 months from testing a nuclear weapon (according to Israeli Intelligence, which is probably much better on the ground than anyone else in Iran) and actively pursuing the intention, wouldn't it be irresponsible for Israel NOT to do something about it?

[Lexingtonian]

18. not likely

The Iranians have easy countermeasures to implement for just about everything Israelis could realistically do.

[Behind the Aegis]

22. Not really.

It wouldn't be a "walk in the park," but the Israeli military, especially the Air Force, could do so much damage in such a short period of time, it would be shocking.

[Lexingtonian]

30. maybe

But that's quite a lot of airspace to cross and a good bunch of Soviet SAMs the Iranians now have. (You know, those funny things that wiped out most of the IAF in 1973. It wasn't a good surprise.) And how many suicide bombers in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and Haifa do you want/need?

I think you'd be surprised how little damage an airforce can inflict at those ranges. Do the math- maybe a ton of explosives per plane, two or three sorties a day, 5-10% losses per attack wave...five waves and the IAF is expended as a weapons arm.

Your opinions have such a nice naivite about them, I always feel mean being critical.

[Behind the Aegis]

33. True.

There was considerable loss in '73...but who won?

Do not underestimate Israel. They are not the Jews of the past. As much as I think they want peace, they will not go "silently into that goodnight" again. The next assault will see the perseverance of the Jewish nation or it will see the destruction of most, if not all, Jews.

Hey, and don't feel "mean" for being critical, you afforded me respect to my opinions! By doing that, you weren't being mean, you were being honest! You treated me with more respect than most. :)

[Behind the Aegis]

3. you have a link?

[gordontron]

11. lets hope it doesn't come to that

http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/view.php?StoryID=20060117-035100-6373r

or

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200601/s1549689.htm

[Behind the Aegis]

17. Thank you for the links! n/t

[tavalon]

6. And the next step in the script is accomplished

Who here didn't think Isreal would say exactly that?

On Edit: Who besides the usual suspect here?

[Hardrada]

13. Right on time.

Uncanny, ain't it?

[Behind the Aegis]

20. With the typical responses...

...from all sides...no?

[The Magistrate]

24. As A Matter Of Curiousity, Ms. Tavalon

Could you clarify the meaning of that "usual suspect" remark?

[Behind the Aegis]

25. That would be me.

The supposed "mole" or Mossad agent, depending on which source you'd like to believe. All I can say is...where is my damn paycheck!?

On edit: Although, curiously, I never said that Israel wouldn't say such a thing.

[tavalon]

41. Mole!?!

LOL. No, I called you the usual suspect because you jump into any discussion related to Isreal.

No, you're clearly one of ours, but Isreal is your pet project. Check into any thread regarding thimerosal, you'll see me battling all the ramparts, likewise me in any avian flu thread. Mossad? No. Vehement? yes

My period just crapped out so it must be time for me to let this one go

[Behind the Aegis]

48. You obviously haven't seen other posts about me.

If Israel is my "pet project," then I am sure you can see it is others' too...on the other side.

I am sorry I am not the "let them berate Israel" type of Jew. Actually, I am not at all sorry.

Want to know more about me? You can see, in my 5000+ posts, I have a variety of interests. One which included helping another poster establish the Muslim group at DU, which you can find here.

Do not think you know me, because I can guarantee you do not.

[tavalon]

59. There are 80,000+ posters here

I do not think I know you. I do know that I've had a run in or two with you in which I've been called an anti-Semite. Bad thing to call a person who is engaged to a Jew and considering (only lightly. I have a problem with some of the women issues) becoming a Jew. I remembered it and I spit out a comment that frankly was uncalled for. While I've seen you be a bit testy over this issue, I've also seen you be insightful. I have exactly two people on my ignore list. You clearly aren't on it nor are you even remotely close to it.

I apologize for my smart ass comment earlier. It was uncalled for.

[Behind the Aegis]

65. Many posters

I have never called another poster here an anti-Semite. In the first few post over a year ago, I have have implied it. However, after getting used to the rules at DU, I don't call anyone an anti-Semite, I simply alert, per the rules. I am very certain that I do not call people anti-Semites, because, as much as I would love for the mods to leave those posts intact, I will not allow it to stand.

I do not see every cry against Israel as anti-Semitic. She has done many a wrong thing. But, it is not always "black and white" as some would like to think; nor, do I allow those people to think in those parameters. However, as someone who stands up to the crap flung here, I have been accused of not being a liberal (I am), a real Jew (I am), a "freeper" (I am not), and a member of the Mossad (not even close, although, unlike the US military they wouldn't care that I am gay...but, if I am a member, they owe me lots of back pay!).

I may be a pro-Israeli, but to think I support "this or that" would be short-sighted, as it is with most of us who post here. I have been blessed to be a "faggot" and a "kike," among other things. I get to see things from a very unique perspective.

Popeye said it best; "I am what I am." I do not define myself by how others see me.

I will gladly accept your apology for your smart ass comment, which was uncalled for, but I don't know which one it was, nor does it matter. All that matters is what is "now."

[tavalon]

69. Wow, I just learned something

I thought kike was a slur against a Italian. I just looked it up because of your comment. I didn't know it was yet another slur against Jews. Not that it makes it any better nor worse. A slur is a slur.

Yeah, I felt very much like you implied that I was an anti-Semite (in another discussion) and I came back with my credentials, not that I should have to have Jewish credentials in these sort of discussions. Given America's political position with regards to Isreal and even the Middle East overall, we all have the right to our opinions around here.

[DRoseDARs]

10. Well, they've got 10 years to plan an attack...

...given reports saying Iran was 5 years away from having The Bomb were revised with a new figure of 10 years.

[LunaC]

26. when Israel steps up to the plate

signs the nuclear non-prolifertion treaty and allows IAEA inspectors into the country, then they can bitch. But until they play by the rules, I don't give a damn about what Israel has to say.

Just so there's no confusion....

As far as Iran is concerned, they've signed the treaty and they’re trying to “play nice” and quell jittery nerves by inviting the U.S. to bid on constructing its nuclear power plants. The U.S. has responded with stony silence.

http://www.hanfordnews.com/news/2005/story/7280850p-7192722c.html

It should be noted that “IAEA inspectors have been admitted to every nuclear site in the country to which they have sought access and have found no hard evidence, to date, that bombs exist or that Iran has made a decision to build them. (The latest IAEA report can be downloaded at: www.GlobalSecurity.org)”

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article7147.htm

Furthermore, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa forbidding the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons on August 9, 2005. The full text of the fatwa was released in an official statement at the meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna.

http://www.answers.com/topic/nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty


“Iran is a threat” is nothing more than propaganda to further the PNAC agenda with Israel complicit in aiding and abetting their efforts! Anyone believing otherwise hasn’t been paying attention.

[Behind the Aegis]

27. .

:eyes:

[greyl]

28. Isn't the point that Iran doesn't want nukes, only nuclear power? nt

[The Magistrate]

29. That Seems Unlikely, Sir

Rather in the same league with "I only buy Playboy for the articles...."

[LunaC]

31. Do you have proof otherwise, "SIR"?

Perhaps you'd care to provide documentation that refutes the points in post #26.

[The Magistrate]

36. If The Thing Is Being Done Competently, Ma'am

There would be no proof, and my inclination is to consider the heirs of ancient Persia competent indeed. The fact is that programs for "peaceful" atomic power and programs for nuclear weapons are interchangeable up to the very last steps, and so the matter boils down to whether or not one trusts the good intentions of the mullahs or not. There does not seem the slightest reason to trust their intentions are good. As an aspiring regional power, they would have every reason to wish the acquisition of such weaponry. As a cursory glance at the world around us will show, those devices serve as the equivalent of a "Don't Tread On Me!" flag, and conferr certain immunities....

[LunaC]

37. "No state has successfully constructed a nuclear weapon in secret

while subjected to an NPT inspection regime."

http://www.answers.com/topic/nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty

So there isn't any reason NOT to trust their intentions.

[The Magistrate]

40. Under No Circumstance, Ma'am, Play Cards For Money

[LunaC]

47. You ASSume I'm a "Ma'am"

Perhaps you should heed your own advice.

And PUH-lease don't address me with what I construe to be a tone of condescension.

[tavalon]

60. FYI

Not that The Magistrate needs defending, but he addresses all of us that way. I find it actually quite civilized that he chooses to call us Ma'am and Sir when we often do not deserve it.

[MisterP]

83. true, that--although my internal voice keeps switching to Sideshow Mel's

diction

[rman]

57. absence of proof hasn't stopped the far-RW yet,

rather it is likely to be construed as proof that Iran is hiding nukes.

[LunaC]

32. That's EXACTLY the point!

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty gives every state the inalienable right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

http://www.answers.com/topic/nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty

[Behind the Aegis]

34. Not really.

Well, no one can be sure as the OP didn't provide any links. The links kindly provided talk about Israel not wanting Iran to have nuclear weapons.

[LunaC]

39. And the point is....

Israel has no reason/right to bitch about Iran. See post #26.

[The Magistrate]

42. Of Course It Does, Ma'am

The relation of the two states is quite hostile, and recent statements by the elected leader of Iran, uncontradicted by the actual rulers of the Guardian Council, have badly exacerbated that. All countries have the right to take reasonable measures of self-defense.

[LunaC]

49. All countries have the right to take reasonable measures of self-defense.

Hmmmmm..."the relation of the two states is quite hostile"...Israel has reportedly threatened to attack Iran, so by your reasoning, Iran has the right to "take reasonable measures of self-defense" against them.

Sorry, but neither Israel or Iran has the right to pre-emptive attack. Hostile words alone are not justification.

[Behind the Aegis]

52. And...

...which country has threatened to wipe the other "off the map?"

[LunaC]

54. And...

...which country has reportedly threatened to attack by March?

So far it's dueling hostilities. Nothing more than RHETORIC! So?

[Behind the Aegis]

56. Does this mean you are relying on MSM?

Isn't that a "no-no?"

[LunaC]

67. You seem to be relying on the MSM

That door swings both ways.

[Behind the Aegis]

44. They have every right!

Iran would be in violation of the NPT (if it was weapons were being developed).

[LunaC]

51. Let me repeat

When Israel steps up to the plate, signs the nuclear non-prolifertion treaty and allows IAEA inspectors into their country, then they can bitch. But until they play by the rules, I don't give a damn about what Israel has to say.

[Behind the Aegis]

53. Let me repeat...

I am not in the least surprised that you don't care what Israel has to say!

[LunaC]

55. So explain to me

Why won't Israel sign the NPT or allow IAEA inspectors into the country? What are they trying to hide?

[Behind the Aegis]

58. How can I?

I am not the Israeli PM or President. I do not have an "ear" to the Israeli government.

Since you are so fond of conspiracy theories, maybe (just an opinion), Israel doesn't want to sign on because they really don't have any, but are trying to "poker bluff" to keep hostile groups at bay. Maybe there is more power in the "mystery" in they enemies not knowing if they have them or not.

[LunaC]

72. But with a "personal interest"

I thought you might shed some light on Israel's decision to play outside the realm of international acceptability.

As for the "poker bluff", that's been soundly dispelled...

Israeli nuclear 'power' exposed

Mordechai Vanunu, Israel's nuclear whistleblower, was jailed in 1986 for publishing photographs of Israel's nuclear bomb factory at Dimona. Olenka Frenkiel reveals the extent of Israel's nuclear gagging.

Note: Mordechai Vanunu was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for 2003.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/correspondent/2841377.stm

[tavalon]

63. I can explain why they don't

See, if they do, then they look like a third world country. We all know (don't we?) that they have the nuclear weapons but to choose to "submit" to inspectors would take them off of an even playing field with, say, the US. They cannot have that because to do so would upset their place within the ME, something they would not want. Hell, any country in that precarious area would love to have the top dog position that Isreal has. They would be crazy to jeapardize that by allowing inspectors in. Would we in their position?

[northzax]

81. actually, technically, Israel doesn't have the legal right

to enforce the NPT, since it is not actually party to that treaty. It would be like the US insisting on enforcing the International Criminal Court or Kyoto Protocol, you can't claim to enforce a treaty that you don't allow to be applied to you.

The major problem, as far as I can tell, is that Iran has buried it's facilities in bunkers designed to prevent an Osirik-esque strike. Does Israel, or the US for that matter, have bunker-busting capability good enough to destroy the facilities without using nuclear weapons? I'm not enough of a military expert to say.

[Poll_Blind]

35. Coming in MARCH with the Iranian Oil Bourse. n/t

PB

[Behind the Aegis]

46. .

:eyes:

And, they say my posts are "on cue."

[tavalon]

64. No Comprende

Seriously, what's an Oil Bourse?

[Spider Jerusalem]

68. 'Bourse' is the continental European term for 'stock exchange'.

The term itself is originally French.

And the Iranian oil bourse is a petroleum trading market scheduled to open in March, which will trade in euros (thus undercutting significantly the position of the US dollar as the primary petro-currency).

However, I don't see that it has anything to do with the entirely understandable Israeli attitude re Iran's nuclear ambitions, particularly in light of the recent aggressive and alarming statements of the Iranian president (who gives every indication of being a dangerous, hate-fuelled madman).

[tavalon]

71. Thanks

I guess I should have googled it.

Damn, that's kind of important, isn't it? I thought I was keeping up but clearly I have missed something big.

I can kind of see how this could be a part of it. We have been sabre rattling, Iran has been sabre rattling, Isreal is sabre rattling. It's a self referential loop accelerated by a pissed off America.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

62. Will Iran continue to allow Israel to have nukes?? I think so. nt.

[LunaC]

66. How this *could* play out

Here’s one possibility:

Israel launches a military strike against Iran as it’s been previously reported and many here seem to support. Iran retaliates against Israel. The U.S. rushes to the aid of its ally, telling the American public it’s justified in doing so. Phase Two of the PNAC agenda is surreptitiously initiated.

Iran retaliates against U.S. forces with its Sunburn missiles - “the most lethal missile in the world today.”

With enough anti-ship missiles, the Iranians can halt tanker traffic through Hormuz for weeks, even months. With the flow of oil from the Gulf curtailed, the price of a barrel of crude will skyrocket on the world market. Within days the global economy will begin to grind to a halt. Tempers at an emergency round-the-clock session of the UN Security Council will flare and likely explode into shouting and recriminations as French, German, Chinese and even British ambassadors angrily accuse the US of allowing Israel to threaten world order. (Note: Bully-Boy Bolton takes over as President of the U.N. Security Council in February.)

Since Iran is the home of China's largest energy-related investments, a conflict with Iran will not only bring China to the table, but its Russian ally as well.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article7147.htm

The world melts down and we can tell the PNAC “Thank you” for making Armaggedon up close and personal!

Hopefully, calmer, more rational minds will prevail and this scenario won’t play out. But considering the sheer madness of the * Administration, 'ya just never know...

[tavalon]

70. This is actually exactly what I worry about

and I don't think it's dissing anyone to note that everyone seems to be sticking to that exact script. And damn it, I was enjoying pretending that with the end of the Russian/American stand off that we were less likely to be annihilated. It was an illusion but damn it, it was MY illusion and I don't like it being messed with, ya know?

On edit: I don't know why, but I would rather die a quieter bird fluey kind of death. I guess I've always preferred a drowning death to a fiery one. Actually, dying in my sleep would be even better.

[Peter Frank]

73. Here's the underlying problem...

China wants to rule the world (and has ties to Iranian oil)

Russia (under KGB Putin) still wants to rule the world (and has ties to Iranian oil)

Russia & China are traditionally Communist nations.

We've shown our ass in Iraq. They know that we don't have the troops or the public support to go to war with Iran.

By Bu$h's arbitrary war on the little dog (the weakest member of the "Axis of Evil"), the bigger dogs of war have the upper hand now.

It is very tempting now for China & Russia (together) to invade America. And we would have no choice but to nuke the enemy countries.

Sleep well all.

[T Town Jake]

74. A profound, important post...

...I agree completely with every bit of it.

[LunaC]

75. One quick question

Is China economically viable to wean itself off the U.S teat and bite the hand that literally feeds it?

I can see your conjecture occurring, but further on down the road.

[FreedomAngel82]

76. Doesn't Israel have nukes?

[PFunk]

77. When all things are said and done Iran will probably end up...

...both w/ nukes and being a nuclear power. The only thing both the US and Israel can do is to slow this certainly down a bit. With drastic results detrimental to both countries.

[upi402]

82. Welcome Pfunk! Bring your flashlight?

You make good points. I was so pissed at * for Iraq for many reasons. In part, because we are spent if we REALLY do need to use the military again.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

79. The convenient bogeyman arises to keep the people in line.

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." H.L. Mencken

The bogeyman for Iran is Israel. For Israel it's the whole Arab world. For America the list is endless. The result for all is to keep the citizens of the respective countries ready to slaughter whoever the bosses designate a "threat".

[upi402]

84. So true, and religion is indeed the opiate...uh speedball, or meth

or maybe CRACK, is a spiritual way.
Anyway, it sure is being exploited here in America. It's empowering the powerful and enriching the wealthy like never before in my memory.