'06 Governor's Races Outlook

[WI_DEM]

Right now I think the Dems have a good chance to make significant increases in the number of Democratic governors. Currently There are 28 Republican Governors and 22 Democratic Governors. I think for sure the Democrats will gain a minimum of four governorships overall but the number could be (if everything falls into place) as high as a net gain of nine governorships which would bring us up to 31 and the GOP down to 19. But...the final number will probably be a net of 6-7 seats--which would be a very good pick up for us.

35 states are holding Governor races this year. 22 of them are Republican and 13 are Democratic, so already they have to protect alot more than we do.

These states I see as likely Republican in November:
Alabama
Connecticut
Hawaii
Idaho
Nebraska
South Carolina
South Dakota
Vermont

Total: 8 (likely GOP)

These states I see as leaning Republican:
Georgia
Florida
Michigan (Granholm may turn it around, but right now this is the most likely pick up for the GOP)
Nevada
Texas (Perry can thank his lucky stars for Kinky Friedman)

Total: 5 (lean GOP)

Likely Democratic:
Alaska (Murkowski is the second most unpopular Gov in country--Knowles should reclaim the gov. mansion).
Arizona
Kansas
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York (Spitzer seems inevitable)
Ohio (recent polls give Strickland a sizeable lead over Blackwell)
Oklahoma
PA (Rendell has made a comeback and seems to be a solid bet in Nov)
Tennessee
Wyoming

Total: 11 (likely Dem)

Lean Democratic:
Arkansas
Colorado
Illinois
Maryland
Maine
Oregon
(Note I still think Blagojevich in IL and Kulongoski in OR could falter and make these states toss ups)
Total: 6 (likely Dem)

Toss ups:
Iowa
California
Minnesota
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

Total 5

Of those five the ones which I think the Dems will ultimately win are: Iowa, Minnesota, Rhode Island and Wisconsin but I think that California in the end will likely go to Arnold. I also think that Wisconsin could also be the GOP's best bet (after MI) of unseating a Dem governor. Doyle just hasn't a great deal of personal popularity here--but he's still leading in the polls, but I think it will be very tight.

[tom_paine]

1. Good stuff. K & R

[michreject]

2. Doyle is targeted by the gun owners

Two years running he has vetoed the CCW legislation for Wi. This should be an interesting race.

[SensibleAmerican]

3. This list seems to be right on the money

I don't think Texas is as competitive and Michigan I think is a toss-up.