Possible Bird Flu Death in Iraq

[QuettaKid]

"" SULAIMANIYA, Iraq (Reuters) - Iraq was testing for the human strain of the deadly bird flu virus for the first time on Wednesday after a 14-year-old girl died of a fever in the Kurdish region close to the Turkish and Iranian borders.""

http://wireservice.wired.com/wired/story.asp?section=Breaking&storyId=1145967&tw=wn_wire_story

[The Backlash Cometh]

1. And the walls come tumbling down.

Better pull our boys out of there before the virus mutates.

I'm just say'n...

[Media_Lies_Daily]

2. If it mutates to where it is efficiently infecting human-to-human, it.....

...won't matter where the troops are located.

[The Backlash Cometh]

3. Yes it will.

If we get them home before they get infected, there will be over 200,000 family-friend cells in America that won't be exposed to an airborne virus.

It buys us time.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

5. You mean like they were able to buy time during the 1918 Pandemic?....

...Avian Flu is currently being spread around the world by migratory birds...those birds will be here long before the U. S. troops are brought home from the Middle East.

Additionally, once it reaches the point of transmitting efficiently from human-to-human, infected travellers will be coming and going through our airports and other ports of entry LONG before they begin to exhibit any symptoms.

To be honest, we have very little time to do much of anything but hope that Avian Flu mutates to a form that will not be dangerous to humans.

[The Backlash Cometh]

7. Very foolish not to stop a known conduit when you know it exists,

don't you think?

Your comment reminds me of a consultation I once had with an Ob Gyn. I was just married and ready to start a family. I married very late in my twenties, so I can't say that I lived a chaste life before making that leap. So, here I was thinking that I was being responsible by asking my doctor to put me through an HIV test because my husband and I wanted to start a family and I just wanted to be sure that I was going to give the baby every possible benefit even before conception. You know what that dumb doctor said? He said, "You haven't been doing anything you shouldn't have, have you? And what does it matter since there's no cure for it so there's nothing you can do."

WTF? He had been my OB GYN for five years and was never critical of any lifestyle choices before then.

Anyway, the point I'm making is simple. If there is a known conduit which can be eliminated, do it.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

10. What "conduits" can be closed, and when could that be done? You do...

...understand that no U.S.-based businesses will allow the closing of any "conduits" as long as there is revenue to be generated and profits to be pocketed, don't you? What "conduits" are you going to eliminate knowing that the U. S. is heavily dependent on the importation of virtually everything needed for everyday living, including oil? Do you really believe that the NeoCon Junta is going to do anything that will impact Big Business in any way?

Do you really believe that the NeoCon Junta will bring the troops home from the Middle East? Do you understand that they are now ramping up for an attack on Iran and Syria? The real question is not how many troops that will bring back to the States, but how many more troops will the send to the Middle East?

What U. S. airports do you suggest closing? What U. S. ports do you suggest shutting down? How do you propose to screen travellers for Avian Flu when there is no known reliable test for Avian Flu at the current time? How do you propose to shut off our borders with Canada and Mexico from a potential flood of refugees trying to flee the pandemic in their respective countries? How about stopping every small boat that sails into any one of tens of thousands of rivers and streams that empty into the Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic?

Now who's being more than a little simplistic about a potential pandemic?

One more point...I get the sense that you were trying to be more than a little insulting with your little commentary about the Ob Gyn. Was that your intent?

[The Backlash Cometh]

13. WTF?

Boy, do you have a hair up your ass this morning.

Yes, I do believe that there are sensible precautions that a country can and should take in matters that involve a public health, safety and welfare issue. Wasn't there a war taking place when the Spanish flu spread? And didn't that war advance the spread of the virus? Are we Stooopid?

If the bird flu does become airborne and Bush continues his march through the Middle East, I'd say the Republicans would be finished. Any soldier fighting in the Middle East fearing for his own welfare because his buddy picked up a cough is going to be an ineffective fighter. And no mother in the US will tolerate sacrificing their child for a war that has an ultimate purpose of providing security for mulit-national oil corporations which have bribed their way to the top echelons of the Republican party.

And WTF are you talking about with the Ob Gyn comment? Are you an Ob Gyn?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

21. Better to have a....

...hair up my ass, than to be a complete ass.

You failed to answer any of my questions, didn't you? I am even more convinced that you know NOTHING about Avian Flu, how it's mutating, and what will happen once it mutates into a variant that is capable of efficient human-to-human transmission.

Yes, in 1918 there was a war being fought. But in 1918, the world's population was only 1.8 billion, and most of that population still lived on farms or in farming communities. Commercial aircraft did not exist, and people travelled from country to country primarily by ship and train. Travel within countries was limited to trains, horses, and horse-drawn wagons.

Today, the world barely supports more than 6 billion people, most of whom are living in urban environments. Transportation from country to country is done primarily by commercial aircraft with no country being out of reach. Ships, both commercial and passenger, are travelling all over the globe. Travel within countries is done primarily by plane and automobile allowing people to reach their destinations within hours, or a day at most. Therefore, once Avian Flu begins to spread easily among humans, it will spread far more quickly than the 1918 version. Compounding the problem is the fact that influenza is contagious well before the infected person begins to exhibit symptoms. Bringing the troops home from an area that may already be generating the human variant of Avian Flu, in the mistaken belief that they will be protected, may instead spread the disease within the U. S. much more rapidly.

The lethality of the 1918 version was somewhere in the range of 2.5% to 5%, with the number of dead estimated to have been about 40 million. That means that somewhere in the range of 900 million people, one half of the total population in that year, were infected by the 1918 version.

If you want to read about what it was like in the U. S. during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, read John M. Barry's book, "The Great Influenza". Pay particular attention to the fact that New York stopped counting their dead at 33,000 when the pandemic was not even half over. Pay attention also to the use of mass graves in Philadelphia.

The current lethality of Avian Flu is about 50%, although scientists expect that percentage to drop below 30% once the human-to-human variant emerges. If half of the world's current population becomes infected, we're going to be looking at as many as 1 billion dead worldwide. If half of the U. S. population of 300 million falls ill, we're looking at 45 million dead. Even if the rate falls to 10% lethality, we're still going to be looking at 300 million dead worldwide, and 15 million dead in the U. S.

If Avian Flu becomes easily contagious among humans, this is an event that is theoretically expected to last from a year to 18 months. Think about the impact that is going to make on the world economy, the ability to produce food, and the ability to distribute food and other daily needs.

Any thinking along the lines that you can somehow isolate yourself, or the country, from the spread of a global pandemic is wishful thinking, IMHO.

As to the Ob Gyn remark, you do recall inserting that subject into the discussion, don't you? Are you having a little trouble with your short-term memory this morning?

[The Backlash Cometh]

25. I don't really care for your attitude.

You like to sling insults but you don't get to the real problem we're having here: That you don't want to even try to make necessary changes to alleviate potential human hardship. Yes, these changes can be made, but you're resisting that option, why? What are your politically leanings?

You have a fatalistic approach to this thing and I want to know why. If you want to lay down and die, I certainly won't stop you. I hope you won't stop those who will try to do what they can to use their intelligence and education to lessen the spread of this virus if it gets airborne. I certainly hope you're not in any health field because you don't inspire confidence.

And it's you who commented that you were offended by the Ob Gyn comment. It's for you to explain why. I remember exactly what I said and I can't for the life of me figure why it would offend anyone. So come on, spit it out. What was your problem with what I said. Be specific, if you can.

[greyl]

6. Calm down, if you like.

They are testing.

[The Backlash Cometh]

8. Do I sound hysterical?

[greyl]

16. A little bit. :) nt

[The Backlash Cometh]

17. What part?

[raccoon]

11. Just like the Spanish flu in 1918. Deja vu all over again. nt

[The Backlash Cometh]

14. Finally! Someone gets it.

[AnneD]

20. My first thoughts when I read the headline..

Great way to spread it to this country-as if it wasn't easy enough to spread via birds.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

24. Commercial airlines, passenger cruise lines, commercial shipping,....

...uninhibited traffic across the Mexican-U. S. borders and the Canadian-U. S. borders, the ability to bring a small boat into any river or stream emptying into the Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic, unrestricted commerce/travel inside the U. S....all ways to spread the disease just as quickly as bringing the troops back from the Middle East.

In short, there will be no way to halt the spread of a pandemic particularly since current testing is producing more false negatives, compounded by the fact that those infected with influenza are contagious long before they begin to exhibit symptoms.

[The Backlash Cometh]

26. Do you really believe that life will go on as usual once this thing hits?

Do you really believe that people will be traveling as freely as they are now? There will be changes, even if you don't want to see it.

[SaveElmer]

32. No comparison at all...

The 1918 flu spread because of the conditions soldiers were forced to endure, not because they were soldiers. In 1918, soldiers were cramped into fetid stinking trenches like sardines, with no sanitation, inadequate food, no medicine, inadequate health care, and no attempt to isolate the sick. Also no antibiotics, no anti-virals, no means of quarantine and isolation.

Conditions in Iraq are not comparable by any means.

[Junkdrawer]

19. Nah, this crew would use it as an excuse to indefinitely extend...

ALL the troops tour of duty.

[Horse with no Name]

23. ding ding ding

We have a winner.
They are exposed. They have to stay over there so they can't infect them here. Same old playbook different day. Rather fight bird flu over there so we don't have to fight it over here.
Now about Iran....seems we have plenty of soldiers in the region...

[maddezmom]

4. QuettaKid, please edit your headline

Iraq tests for bird flu after girl dies in north

Thanks in advance

[tanyev]

9. Oh, great.

[no_hypocrisy]

12. Would an outbreak in Iraq mean that the American military would be

quarantined and not allowed to return to this country until the pandemic died out?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

22. That would be my guess based on the experiences of 1918.

[The Backlash Cometh]

27. So you do see it. Flip-flopping so soon?

[SaveElmer]

28. No comparison at all..

The Flu spread in 1918 because of the conditions the soldiers had to endure...cramped into fetid trenches, inadequate food, medicine, or health care, with no attempt to isolate the sick.

If any soldiers did become ill, they would not be quarantined in perpetuity. Medicine has advanced enough to know when someone is contagious or not.

[The Backlash Cometh]

30. Don't talk to him about isolating the sick. He's a fatalist.

[Village Idiot]

15. This could spell DISASTER.

Can you imagine getting the troops out in time? The possible quarantine restrictions? The hue and cry from all and sundry regarding the potential healhcare risks associated with bringing them home AT ALL?

[The Backlash Cometh]

18. Be careful. They're going to call you hysterical.

Though your nom de plume doesn't help our cause. (LOL)

[greyl]

29. You're doing it again. ;) nt

[The Backlash Cometh]

31. I should have put a smiley on that post.

But I "grew up" on the internet on a tough british newsgroup that believed that smileys were for sissys.

[greyl]

33. The LOL worked just fine and a smiley wouldn't

have changed my response.

Point is, this particular story is a non-story at the moment.
They are testing.

[The Backlash Cometh]

34. I like to be cutting edge - proactive they call it.

Better to know now, not just what the health response should be, but also recognize where the resistance will come from.