The Kosovo analogy.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

There've been several attempts to analogize (is that a word) the recent fighting in Lebanon/Israel, comparisons with the U.S. invading Iraq, etc.

Analogies probably aren't terribly important because the closer you look, the more the analogy breaks down. But what do you think about this analogy...

Israel is analogous to Serbia in the late nineties. Lebanese people would be Kosovars/Albanians. Hezbollah would be the KLA. And the capturing of Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah is the terrorist attack launched by the KLA that Milosevic used as pretext for his military offensive in Kosovo.

Of course I'm no expert in either conflict, but of all the analogies I've read, I can't think of one closer. Your opinions?

[Igel]

1. It captures some similarities.

But since it was Serbian-controlled territory and the KLA was presenting itself as fighting against Serbian control, and had no official status in the country, it rather breaks down. However, Serbian paranoia and KLA contacts, the media were reasonably controlled, as well, just as is the case this time.

Of course, the resulting ethnic cleansing is clearly in keeping with Hezbollah's goes for Israel.

It's also unclear if the KLA had wider aspirations, although this is likely considering the way the conflict morphed into a Macedonian problem, with the same kinds of behaviors.

[tocqueville]

2. more interesting is NATO vs Serbia as an analogy

NATO used similar tactics against Serbia compared Israel versus Lebanon. The intresting part is that NATO sent back Serbia 50 years in time by destroying its infrastructure but did very little damage to the Serbian army.
Serbia gave up because Russia forced it to. The difference between the NATO air war is that there were very few impacts on civilian neighbourhoods compared to Lebanon and no evacuations were needed. A lot of criticism can be given to the NATO air war, but it was far more "cleaner" than the Israeli one.

The comparison is interesting regarding the Hizbollahs abilities to survive the onslaught.

Another difference is that the Hezbollah has broad popular support both inside and outside Lebanon. The KLA was a puppet army of thugs set up within 15 days by the CIA. They have today reconverted into drug- and prostitution trade and are one of the worst mafias in Eastern Europe.