An extraordinary essay from Praktike at American Footprints:
http://americanfootprints.com/drupal/node/2672Fouad Ajami, who writes often in the Wall Street Journal, consults with the OVP on Middle East affairs, originally became known for his dense essay collection The Dream Palace of the Arabs, which harshly criticizes his fellow Arabs for, well, "magical thinking, purely wishful."
Now it is clear that the Bush administration suffers from its own delusions in the region, prinicipally that Arabs want to and are ready create liberal democracies that will support American goals for the region. The fact is, hatred of Israel and of America's support for it is widespread across nearly all political currents, and this in turn undermines autocratic governments allied with the United States and bolsters the popularity of Islamist groups that reject Israel such as Hamas, Hizballah, and the non-violent Muslim Brotherhood.
These groups do not "fear democracy," pace Bush, insofar as democracy means direct elections--as Washington itself has unfortunately come to define the term (e.g., in Iraq). It has been demonstrated that these entities can do quite well in elections, and that, as they themselves are fond of saying, their legitimacy comes "from the street" and not from outside.
Analysts who have linked terrorism to a lack of democracy are correct when they argue that groups that are barred from participating in politics will seek to attain their goals by other, i.e. violent means. This analysis is spot-on, I think, when it refers to entities like al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya, albeit slightly complicated when referring to a self-labeled resistance group like Hizballah, or a political party with weapons like Hamas. But in general, the theory goes that greater political participation will decrease terrorism. I don't think this is THE answer to the terrorism problem (solving regional disputes such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Kashmir is equally if not more important), but it certainly has to be part of any lasting solution.
What's happening now, it seems to me, is that the United States is "pulling an Algeria" in Palestine, Lebanon, and possibly Egypt by encouraging Islamist groups to participate in elections and then seeking to isolate or crush them when they, given the current environment, win. An adjunct of this call is to isolate the two countries, Syria, and Iran, that fiercely oppose U.S. and Israeli policies and support rejectionist groups such as Hamas and Hizballah. If there is an approach more conducive to fostering a violent, assymmetrical response by these actors, I have yet to think of one.
And I haven't even talked about Iraq, which is another kettle of fish entirely.
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