Blair to tell Bush: we need a ceasefire

[tocqueville]

Drawn out Lebanon crisis will boost militants across Arab world, PM fears

Ewen MacAskill, Simon Tisdall and Michael White
Friday July 28, 2006
The Guardian

Tony Blair will press George Bush today to support "as a matter of urgency" a ceasefire in Lebanon as part of a UN security council resolution next week, according to Downing Street sources.
At a White House meeting, the prime minister will express his concern that pro-western Arab governments are "getting squeezed" by the crisis and the longer it continues, the more squeezed they will be, giving militants a boost. The private view from No 10 is that the US is "prevaricating" over the resolution and allowing the conflict to run on too long.

But diplomatic sources in Washington suggest the US and Israel believe serious damage has been inflicted on Hizbullah, so the White House is ready to back a ceasefire resolution at the UN next week. Today Mr Bush and Mr Blair will discuss a version of the resolution that has been circulating in Washington and London.

The draft peace deal involves two phases. In the first, Israel and Lebanon would agree a ceasefire and a small multinational force would be deployed on the border, allowing Israeli troops to withdraw. Then a much larger force of between 10,000 and 20,000 troops would be assigned to implement UN security council resolution 1559, agreed two years ago, under which militias such as Hizbullah would be disarmed and the authority of the Lebanese government forces extended to the country's southern border.

European officials are sceptical about disarming Hizbullah. But they believe that, if other countries in the region can be persuaded to contribute to the buffer force, it would give them a vested interest in addressing Hizbullah's threat to Israel.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1832122,00.html

[malaise]

1. Blair has no choice

http://www.independent.co.uk/

<snip>
After his stop-over in Washington, Mr Blair will fly on to California tonight to attend a conference with the media magnate Rupert Murdoch. An ally of Mr Murdoch, Irwin Stelzer, insisted Mr Blair was not Mr Bush's "poodle", but his "guide dog", particularly over the Middle East.

Downing Street officials said Mr Blair intended to respond to world criticism by showing urgency in seeking an end to the hostilities between Israel and Hizbollah. The Prime Minister and the President are planning to commit their governments to a lasting ceasefire by restoring the authority of the elected government against the unilateral action by Hizbollah.

[Solly Mack]

2. This part here:

"But diplomatic sources in Washington suggest the US and Israel believe serious damage has been inflicted on Hizbullah, so the White House is ready to back a ceasefire resolution at the UN next week. Today Mr Bush and Mr Blair will discuss a version of the resolution that has been circulating in Washington and London."

A version that is acceptable to Bush, they mean. The language used - the wording...of the "version circulating in Washington..." should be interesting.

[magellan]

3. Yes, it will be interesting to hear what the terms are

I wonder how close the IDF are to that river in southern Lebanon now? (I forget the name.) I thought I heard yesterday afternoon that they were near it.

[Solly Mack]

6. The Litani?

[magellan]

9. That's it

I'm waiting to see if what some DUers have been predicting comes true, that this was a play for control of the Litani.

[Solly Mack]

11. Won't be the first the Litani was seen as prime

in this on-going and seemingly neverending conflict

[magellan]

13. The timing of it is what gets me

If recollection serves, some mention was made yesterday about the IDF being near the Litani river. Wouldn't it be convenient if they agreed a ceasefire and kept the Litani in the "Hezbollah-free zone"?

[Solly Mack]

14. Israel wouldn't mind if the Litani was under their control

in a cease fire. At all.

[malaise]

10. I heard a discussion on BBC International last night

Israel wants the Litani.

[Solly Mack]

12. The Litani has been a goal before

so...

[malaise]

4. Reckless, dangerous and criminal

will be the phrase used for Bush and Blair foreign policy in all history books.

[Solly Mack]

7. and call Blair weak to a Bush bully

[rodeodance]

5. too late, Mr. lappy--

......Drawn out Lebanon crisis will boost militants across Arab world, PM fears

[Solly Mack]

8. Amazing isn't it?

PM fears that and can see....but does he see how Iraq contributes to it all?