...it will almost certainly be because Republicans have fucked with the electoral machinery.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/conason/2006/07/28/dems_2006/index.html?source=rss...
People are angry. More than 60 percent of the voters in the
NPR survey believe that the country is "pretty seriously" on the wrong track, while only 31 percent believe it is on the right track. Of those who feel that we're on the wrong track, almost two-thirds blame the war in Iraq or the economy. Another 16 percent blame "Bush in general," and only 6 percent blame illegal immigration.
People are especially angry at the president. Of the 50 districts surveyed by NPR, nine are represented by Democrats and one by an independent; the remaining 40 are represented by Republicans. But Bush's approval rating in these overwhelmingly GOP-held districts is a dismal 42 percent.
People want change. Fewer than three in 10 of the voters in these competitive districts say they are likely to vote for the incumbent. Nearly half say they are likely to vote for "someone else." (Twelve of the 50 seats are open, meaning that there is no incumbent, so that question was asked only in the other 38, of which 30 are held by Republicans.) Nearly half, or 48 percent, say they are likely to vote for the Democrat, while 41 percent say they will probably vote for the Republican. That preference was more than generic -- asked the same question with the names of the districts' candidates, those preferences varied by only 1 percent.
People reject the "moral values" demagoguery. Most voters in the contested districts say that they trust Democrats, not Republicans, on such issues as stem cell research, flag burning and gay rights. Those responses indicate that the summer strategy of setting up phony floor votes on right-wing constitutional amendments -- and the president's first veto -- may have backfired. Fifty-two percent say that the recent stem cell debate made them more inclined to vote for Democrats, and 49 percent said the same about flag burning, gay marriage and other "values issues." Only 29 percent -- essentially the conservative base -- said those debates would motivate them to vote for Republicans.
And people are energized. Low turnouts in recent special elections have suggested that voters in both parties remain apathetic. But if this poll is accurate, that may no longer be true -- for the Democrats, at least. In the NPR survey, Democratic voters were considerably more likely than Republicans or independents to express interest in and enthusiasm for the midterm elections. So were voters who disapprove of Bush.
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