Larry Johnson :U.S. Intelligence on Hizballah and Iran

[cal04]

Ray Close, an old CIA hand and genuine Middle East expert, sent me the following this am. It is worthy of your consideration and thought.

Larry

A few days ago, I received a report from a friend in Washington who has very close connections to high-ranking intelligence analysts at the Pentagon. I will omit the names of the individuals identified, but will summarize the information that this excellent source provided to me. (Please note: This source is NOT the one who told me a couple of days ago that the US would indeed be prepared to send a contingent of American troops to serve in southern Lebanon as an incentive to others, if necessary, to join an international force to impose and then help maintain a ceasefire between Israel and Hizballah.)

My source confirmed in detail the fact that intelligence being produced for the Bush Administration by the Pentagon strongly supports the thesis that Hizballah operations are directly controlled and closely managed from Teheran. My source considers this an exaggerated picture of the real situation. He believes that this assessment contributes to an unhealthy and even dangerous mindset in Washington, leading to potentially serious miscalculations and errors of judgment by President Bush and his closest advisors at this very critical time.


My source, who is much more of an expert on Iran and Hizballah than I am, believes that, dangerous and damaging as Hassan Nasrallah's actions may be to U.S. interests in the region, he and his movement are not totally under Iran's direction and control. He holds the view that although Hizballah, Hamas, al-Qa'ida, and the Salafi elements of the Iraqi insurgency (among others) may have many important interests and objectives in common, they should not all be regarded (and dealt with) as if they were tightly interlocking parts of a single worldwide conspiracy. This is apparently how the intelligence experts in the Pentagon tend to assess the phenomenon called International Terrorism, most particularly and immediately in the case of Hizballah's relationship with Iran.

When I received today's report, I wrote the following message back to my source. This is exactly what I said:
http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2006/jul/29/u_s_intelligence_on_hizballah_and_iran

[bleever]

1. Compare L. Johnson's analysis to the

blunt and primitive talking points about "false" peace, and the folly of "managed calm".

:kick:

[enough]

2. k&r

[Coexist]

3. knr

[FogerRox]

4. KnR

[Bucky]

5. Conflating different terror groups tends to be Israel's problem too

They ramped up a manageable crisis with Hamas--strictly a local affair--into a full scale shoot out with Iran's pet lunatics. Iran may not directly control Hezbollah, but they know what Hezbollah is like and what they get off to and then send them lots of money & rockets anyway.

[canichelouis]

6. Yet another 'Fiasco"