Hizbullah banking on Israeli rejection of Siniora plan

[still_one]

http://www.beirutbeltway.com/

[magellan]

1. That seems a bit of a reach

According to the blogger's translation:

The Hizbullah source cited above says that the party is waiting for the Israeli reaction to Siniora’s plan before entering the discussion. The source, added, however, that they have information that Israel refuses “returning” the Shebaa farms to Lebanon. “Thus, the Israeli refusal to pull out of the farms and the Kfarshouba hills creates enough justification for the resistance to continue.”

Nowhere is it suggested that Hezbollah are "banking on" Israel rejecting Saniora's plan other than by the blogger. Chebaa farms has long been a sticking point; Lebanon have been limited in their attempts to disarm Hezbollah because of it.

From an article earlier today on this subject:

The provisions do not spell out the order in which the steps must take place, but Saniora has said the government cannot spread its authority in the south unless the Chebaa farms issue is resolved. Israel's hold on Chebaa has provided Hezbollah with a rationale to maintain its arsenal and its "resistance" against Israel.

The real question is why won't Israel cede Chebaa Farms to Lebanon and remove one of Hezbollah's rationales for staying armed?

[maalak]

2. so Hezbollah will disarm...

... if Israel gives back the Shebaa farms?

[Selatius]

3. As long as Lebanese soil has Israeli troops on it, Hezbollah won't

At least, that was what the more sane, relatively speaking, elements of Hezbollah had claimed in years past. Hezbollah would lose its meaning to exist if all Lebanese land was free of Israeli troops, but Hezbollah would likely not disappear even if all Lebanese land was liberated because there's the element with the stated goal of wiping out Israel, not just liberating Lebanese soil.

However, there is a strange fact one must notice. Of all the UN maps of the region, none of them indicate that Shebaa Farms belongs to Lebanon. The maps suggest they actually belong to none other than Syria, who still wants back the Golan Heights that Israel occupied.

[magellan]

4. And Syria has said the land belongs to Lebanon (nt)

[magellan]

5. That was only one part of Siniora's ceasefire plan

Did you read it?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060729/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_fighting_peace_package_4