Welcome To My Parlor

[Ms. Clio]

http://www.d-n-i.net/lind/lind_7_28_06.htm">Welcome to My Parlor

By William S. Lind

Welcome to my parlor, says the Hezbollah spider to the Israeli fly. The Israeli high command continues to express its faith in the foxfire of air power to destroy Hezbollah, but, as always, it’s not working. Lebanon is taking a pounding, to be sure, but Lebanon is not Hezbollah. Slowly, reluctantly, Israel is edging toward a ground invasion of Lebanon, for which Hezbollah devoutly prays. When air power fails, what other choice will Israel have?

A story in the July 24 Cleveland Plain Dealer gives a good idea of what awaits the IDF once it crosses the border in earnest. Israeli ground forces have been fighting for days to take Maroun al-Ras, a small village less than 500 yards into Lebanon. The battle has not gone well. Israel has lost five or six troops dead, with undoubtedly more wounded. It still does not control the whole village. According to the Plain Dealer piece by Benjamin Harvey of AP, Officers at the scene confirmed there was still fighting to do.

(snip)

Operationally, Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on Israel are the matador’s cape. That too is working. What of the strategic level? The Arab street is cheering for Hezbollah, often across the Sunni-Shiite divide, while the governments of states such as Egypt hide under the bed. The goal of Islamic Fourth Generation forces is the destruction of most, if not all, Arab state governments, so Hezbollah is winning strategically as well. One can almost watch the legitimacy drain away from the region’s decrepit states, with incalculable consequences for American interests.

(snip)

An interesting theoretical speculation is whether, if Hezbollah’s 4GW success continues, some Middle Eastern governments might try adopting Fourth Generation techniques themselves. Lebanon’s fictional government has suggested the Lebanese Army may join Hezbollah in defending southern Lebanon from an Israeli invasion. Militarily, such an action would be meaningless, and it probably reflects a desperate desire to keep the Lebanese Army (which is 40% Shiite) from fractioning, along with Lebanon itself. But what if instead the government called for a million marchers, mostly women and children, to head toward the Lebanese-Israeli frontier, waving palm branches and singing songs? That’s how Morocco took the Spanish Sahara, and it would present Israel with a sticky wicket indeed.


more here: http://www.d-n-i.net/lind/lind_archive.htm

[1monster]

1. Those who sow the wind shall reap the whirlwind.

Which doesn't bode well for Israel or for this country either.

[Ms. Clio]

2. yes, there are many parallels

none of them favorable.

[Ms. Clio]

3. nobody wants to hear from a GENUINE EXPERT, apparently

From Wiki:

(William S.)Lind is more widely known as one of the originators of Fourth Generation War (4GW) theory, also known as the Four Generations of Modern Warfare. The Fourth generation stresses that the State has lost its monopoly on warfare, and 4GW seeks to address the new challenges posed by this situation. The root of this new phenomenaon is the "State's Crisis of Legitimacy," which is also linked to Lind's work at the Center for Cultural Conservatism

Lind served as a legislative aide for the armed services for Senator Robert Taft, Jr., of Ohio from 1973 through 1976 and held a similar position with Senator Gary Hart of Colorado from 1977 through 1986. Mr. Lind is author of the Maneuver Warfare Handbook (Westview Press, 1985); co-author, with Gary Hart, of America Can Win: The Case for Military Reform.

Lind worked closely with US Airforce Colonel John Boyd with whom he developed much of his theoretical work and drew much inspiration from.

[Ms. Clio]

4. another kick for all those who think Israel is "winning"