Peak Hurricane season just beginning

[greenman3610]

The combination of the record-setting 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the "pre-season" expectations prior to the start of the 2006 season on June 1 may have led many people to believe that tropical storms would develop early and often through the summer and fall of 2006. The two weak storms that developed over the past couple of weeks may have led many of those people to question whether the pre-season forecasts were accurate.

In researching the current multi-decadal cycle of elevated hurricane activity that began in 1995, Reeves maintained that this season is typical for an active hurricane season. During the past decade, half of the third named tropical systems developed before August 3, and half after that date. "The storm with the 'C' name formed as early as Cindy last year (July 3) and as late as Charley in 1998 (August 21)."

Since 1995, there has been an average of 12 named tropical systems after August 3, with 2005 the worst at 19 storms after that date. Reeves points out that 1997 was the only year with less than ten named storms after August 3, despite the arrival of four named storms by mid-July. An El Nino caused a strong west to east jet stream through the tropics, crushing the remainder of the season. Two of the three storms formed in late October, and both lasted less than 48 hours.



http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp

[nosillies]

1. Thanks for the link

Many of us were glad to hear of Klotzbach's revised (and better) forecast! If only it weren't a guessing game. But at least huricanes are natural disasters with a good warning.

[annabanana]

2. Can anyone here read this and figure out

Why they are saying that the probability of an East Coast strike is 65%? I don't speak the lingo...