Oh. My. God.

[colorado thinker]

from George Ure at http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

"Oil Scoop
As a reporter, it's always fun when a trusted and reliable source pulls my coat to what's really going on behind the media hype. In this case, it was an article posted at the www.energybulletin.net side by Richard Heinberg titled "Middle East as a Crossroads". The paragraph that will drive the US to attack Iran before year's end is this:

At the ASPO conference a well-connected industry insider who wishes not to be directly quoted told me that his own sources inside Saudi Arabia insist that production from Ghawar is now down to less than three million barrels per day, and that the Saudis are maintaining total production at only slowly dwindling levels by producing other fields at maximum rates. This, if true, would be a bombshell: most estimates give production from Ghawar at 5.5 Mb/d.

My source, a highly respected oil industry consultant, goes on to advise me that "If true, it is not unexpected, and it means that the two largest producing fields in the world are crashing. BTW, the Saudi stock market crashed earlier this year because of heavy insider selling by the Saudi royal family. Ghawar + Cantarell crashing means explosive increases in oil prices."

So, if you look at the prospect of $200 oil, the Chinese cutting supply deals with Iran, and the Russians buying them nuclear development materials, it means that Iran (which will be putting out about 5% of the entire world's energy supplies as Cantarell and Ghawar production collapses will become an even more strategic asset. The clock is running on an energy-driven die-off and the neocons and a lot of others know the hour is late and, as energy banker Matthews Simmons has said so many times, the West doesn't have a "Plan B."

Bottom line: If the water-injection to Ghawar is causing it's sudden death right now (as leading researchers like Chip Haynes have been warning of since 2001) then the US is quickly getting into a corner and instead of using what we have lots of (brains) and anticipating the worst case (like a crash alternative energy program) we're trying to take the military solution, ignoring the fact that such tactics use tons of energy and wreck the planet along the way.

[mike_c]

1. this crisis could not have occurred at a worse time for the U.S....

We have leadership that is utterly incapable of dealing with it. K&R!

[opihimoimoi]

11. Ed Zachery....

[malaise]

16. It was the US oil tzars

and their Republican friends who went on the offensive after Carter presented his enery policy in the famous Crisis of Confidence speech in 1979.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/carter/filmmore/ps_crisis.html
Had Carter's energy policy been taken onboard, the US would have been much more independent of foreign oil and would not have been killing over 100,000 Iraqis so that they can waste energy. Indeed Reagan and his oilmen did the opposite and Detroit opted for bigger and bigger SUVs.
..................
What I have to say to you now about energy is simple and vitally important.

Point one: I am tonight setting a clear goal for the energy policy of the United States. Beginning this moment, this nation will never use more foreign oil than we did in 1977 -- never. From now on, every new addition to our demand for energy will be met from our own production and our own conservation. The generation-long growth in our dependence on foreign oil will be stopped dead in its tracks right now and then reversed as we move through the 1980s, for I am tonight setting the further goal of cutting our dependence on foreign oil by one-half by the end of the next decade -- a saving of over 4-1/2 million barrels of imported oil per day.

Point two: To ensure that we meet these targets, I will use my presidential authority to set import quotas. I'm announcing tonight that for 1979 and 1980, I will forbid the entry into this country of one drop of foreign oil more than these goals allow. These quotas will ensure a reduction in imports even below the ambitious levels we set at the recent Tokyo summit.

Point three: To give us energy security, I am asking for the most massive peacetime commitment of funds and resources in our nation's history to develop America's own alternative sources of fuel -- from coal, from oil shale, from plant products for gasohol, from unconventional gas, from the sun.

I propose the creation of an energy security corporation to lead this effort to replace 2-1/2 million barrels of imported oil per day by 1990. The corporation I will issue up to $5 billion in energy bonds, and I especially want them to be in small denominations so that average Americans can invest directly in America's energy security.

Just as a similar synthetic rubber corporation helped us win World War II, so will we mobilize American determination and ability to win the energy war. Moreover, I will soon submit legislation to Congress calling for the creation of this nation's first solar bank, which will help us achieve the crucial goal of 20 percent of our energy coming from solar power by the year 2000.

These efforts will cost money, a lot of money, and that is why Congress must enact the windfall profits tax without delay. It will be money well spent. Unlike the billions of dollars that we ship to foreign countries to pay for foreign oil, these funds will be paid by Americans to Americans. These funds will go to fight, not to increase, inflation and unemployment.

Point four: I'm asking Congress to mandate, to require as a matter of law, that our nation's utility companies cut their massive use of oil by 50 percent within the next decade and switch to other fuels, especially coal, our most abundant energy source.

Point five: To make absolutely certain that nothing stands in the way of achieving these goals, I will urge Congress to create an energy mobilization board which, like the War Production Board in World War II, will have the responsibility and authority to cut through the red tape, the delays, and the endless roadblocks to completing key energy projects.

We will protect our environment. But when this nation critically needs a refinery or a pipeline, we will build it.

Point six: I'm proposing a bold conservation program to involve every state, county, and city and every average American in our energy battle. This effort will permit you to build conservation into your homes and your lives at a cost you can afford.

I ask Congress to give me authority for mandatory conservation and for standby gasoline rationing. To further conserve energy, I'm proposing tonight an extra $10 billion over the next decade to strengthen our public transportation systems. And I'm asking you for your good and for your nation's security to take no unnecessary trips, to use carpools or public transportation whenever you can, to park your car one extra day per week, to obey the speed limit, and to set your thermostats to save fuel. Every act of energy conservation like this is more than just common sense -- I tell you it is an act of patriotism.

Our nation must be fair to the poorest among us, so we will increase aid to needy Americans to cope with rising energy prices. We often think of conservation only in terms of sacrifice. In fact, it is the most painless and immediate way of rebuilding our nation's strength. Every gallon of oil each one of us saves is a new form of production. It gives us more freedom, more confidence, that much more control over our own lives.

So, the solution of our energy crisis can also help us to conquer the crisis of the spirit in our country. It can rekindle our sense of unity, our confidence in the future, and give our nation and all of us individually a new sense of purpose.

You know we can do it. We have the natural resources. We have more oil in our shale alone than several Saudi Arabias. We have more coal than any nation on Earth. We have the world's highest level of technology. We have the most skilled work force, with innovative genius, and I firmly believe that we have the national will to win this war.

[Tsiyu]

18. Ah, the hope we had back then

President Carter was so right.

Imagine no more blood for oil.


Bush and the NEOCONS' answer is simplistic, barbaric and self-destructive. Invade the remaining weaker countries that might have or lead to oil. Spend most of your time killing civilians and destroying the infrastructure of that weaker country and weakening your army and your nation's budget, because this will make you look tough to the stronger countries with oil you plan to invade.


BTW, precious little oil will result from these draconian, evil methods, but you will look like you are doing something.

[Joanne98]

19. Reagan came along and made greed cool. May he rot in Hell.

[NoSheep]

47. I remember it well. I watched an intelligent, liberal university community

by that I mean Duke in Durham NC where I live, turn into a raging bunch of pigs as the 80's wore on. The Regan years ruined it. Made it okay again to be greedy and selfish. You hit the nail right on the head from someone who saw a decent and thriving liberal community turn sour in just a few short years.

[femrap]

51. And I was so glad to see that he got a

bit of a Karmatic bite in the ass while he was still on Earth!

[HamdenRice]

22. Holy F***ing Sh*t! I never read that! -- thanks Malaise!

No wonder there was an October Surprise and Iran Contra deal to steal the 1980 election!

[malaise]

25. It was Carter's most important speech and

it has been ignored for way too long. I would love KO to interview Carter about that speech and energy policy since 1979.
add.

[long_green]

32. reading that speech, I'm surprised Carter lived to see the '80 election

Especially when you read about using a windfall profits tax. Imagine if the hostage rescue attempt had succeeded...ohhh man.

[Blackhatjack]

28. Imagine a President untied to the Oil Lobby making this speech today

In the face of public sacrifice, the American public could and would get behind this and make it a success IF AND ONLY IF the Oil Companies and Big Business did not sabotage it first.

The only reason not to do this is to support outrageous profits to the Oil Industry, and the massive campaign contributions triggered by the Oil Lobby and Business.

Nothing less than campaign finance reform, and election of a President with no ties to the Oil Business, will save us from the inevitable energy wars and financial crisis that will flatten all Americans except the richest 1%, who will pick up the pieces for pennies on the dollar.

[malaise]

37. I would love someone on progressive radio or

KO to interview Carter and discuss this critical moment in American history with him.

You are correct - until there is a clean break with oil men - American foreign policy is doomed.

[Raster]

29. but, ronnie raygun promised us it was "morning in America...", we didn't

have to worry about such things. The Texas white-boy petroleum mafia and their good friend the military/industrial complex never wanted us to do what was right for the country, just what was right for their offshore bank accounts.

[mom cat]

30. No wonder the repubs Swift Boated him with the hostage crisis.

He might have made a difference and Big Oil couldn't allow that.

[KittyWampus]

33. sigh

[BelgianMadCow]

36. Bookmarking this already good thread due to Carter's speech

it provides WONDERFUL perspective.

Thank you

BMC

[malaise]

42. Here's an interesting response

http://www.anonymousliberal.com/2006/02/malaise-speech-its-time-to-apologize.html

[BelgianMadCow]

53. "both refreshingly candid and tragically prescient"

funny, I thought about including prescient (lovely word imho) in my post...

Good post over there - but is Carter really a figure very few (rep or dem) respect as is suggested in one of the comments? Because that is not how I view him - but my experiences of course date from after his presidency.

Is that also the background to you name?

[malaise]

54. It is not how I view

him either. Carter was hated by special interests in particular the oilmen.
Others can help me understand the internal struggles with the Democratic party. I am also interested in the role of the CIA during that period.

[JHB]

55. Late 70's political dynamics...

...are a bit beyond my realm of expertise, but a few things might help you:

Ted Kennedy challenged Carter (a sitting president) for the Democratic nomination in 1980. I'm a little fuzzy on what Ted's platform was (I was a bit young at the time, and haven't researched it), but it was a result of, and contributed to, Carter's "weak" image.

As for the CIA, the 70's were when congressional investigations exposed a lot of its dirty laundry from the 50s and 60s (coups, assasination programs, etc.), and Carter's DCI Stansfield Turner fired some 800 veteran agents en masse. This made those 800 (as well as plenty of people who hadn't been fired) hate Carter's guts, and left them quite favorably inclined toward the previous DCI (who had helped protect them), George H. W. Bush.

If you think Karl Rove is a genius, just imagine the dirty tricks you could pull with a few hundred grudge-holding covert ops people on your side...

[malaise]

56. Yes I know that

George H.W. Bush is the key to unravelling much of the anti-Carter sabotage and propaganda. I don't know enough about the Carter v Kennedy platforms either.

My interest in the Carter years centres on the level of sabotage that took place in Jamaica during the Democratic Socialist experiment between 1974 and 1980. Kissenger made several threats between 74 and 76, and there was a pattern of violence unknown on this island in that period, not to mention the number of M16 weapons which suddenly appeared. Phillip Agee exposed several agents during a famous speech here, but the fire which killed 800 old people in the Golden Age home had the stamp of CIA written all over it, while the propaganda blamed the Manley government. We have always wanted details of the relationship between Carter and US intelligence during that period.

Reagan and Bush virtually took over with their right-wing plant (American- born Seaga)in October 1980.

[JHB]

62. Can't help you there...

Try writing Ray McGovern to see if he can shed any light. Maybe he can't, but asking can't hurt either.

[malaise]

63. Thanks

good idea.

[Erika]

2. Much has been said about the ME oil supplies drying up

All one has to do is go through Oklahoma and other states to see dead oil fields. The Royal House of Saud has seen to it their family will live in riches for centuries. They join the American oil/energy cartels in taking care of their own and taking profits while profits are there. W/Cheney are two of them.

[Deja Q]

21. It's not about 'drying up'. It's about oil becoming unprofitable to pump.

Even as the amount pumped is lesser and lesser, the world can survive on a lot of it if we only gave up some of the non-necessities in life. (but who's going to allow that; they still sell more and more of that plastic crap to everyone else...)

[Blackhatjack]

3. So the morally repugnant thing to do is steal the oil from Iran?

Do we take on Iran to get its oil since the Saudi fields are dying?

Sounds like an amoral position to take for the "world's greatest democracy" which is interested in spreading "freedom."

How much progress toward alternative energy replacement could have been made if we had sunk $300 Billion into it before we attacked Iraq??

We might not even need Middle East oil today if we have made the right decision at that time.

[colorado thinker]

4. Exactly

My sister and I have been watching Peak Oil websites since before the 2004 election. My sense of dread has been growing ever since, because of the repugnant thugs we have in the White House. They have taken the wrong road every time they've reached a crossroad since the election, and I'm very very afraid for our country, as well as for the planet. The rest of the world will not stand for stupidity if the oil decline reaches crisis levels before we get a chance to run the criminals out of office. This won't be Armageddon (no one will rapture!) but it will be a catastrophe.

[neoblues]

59. Naw, IRAQ Should have plenty for now...

Happily, IRAN is saving theirs by using nuclear power, so maybe they'll have some left over later when we've sucked IRAQ dry... (of course, we'll have gone bankrupt, given up and come home, watched 1/8th of the world die of a bird-flu pandemic that would have destroyed international commerce anyway had we not already been struggling for our very survival with infinitely increased global famine, draught, storms and heatwaves on such cataclysmic levels that such puny questions as whether or not there's fuel to run cars, plane or trains seems wishful thinking--the whole idea of fielding an army, even in our own country will have become a moot point)(ooops, I slipped ahead a hundred fifty years, sorry).

[Blackhatjack]

5. Greg Palast has an alternate theory ....

He says the US military is hot to gain control over Iran oil for two reasons: to keep a lid on oil reserves out of Iran to prop up prices for the Middle East sellers(OPEC), and to provide US Oil Companies with easy access to valuable and profitable oil resources.

Instead of trying to head off consequences of Peak Oil, the US would try to restrict oil flow to keep prices up.

[elehhhhna]

7. That sounds like the Government I know!

[robinlynne]

14. His argument makes a lot of sense to me. And explains each detail of what

happened in Iraq in its larger context.

[Nikki Stone 1]

17. Keeping oil prices very high also makes harder to extract oil more

competitive. The oil being extracted from the Canadian tar sands, for example, is now competitive since the price of oil has skyrocketed.

Part of me feels that that is why these wars are taking place.

[robertpaulsen]

41. Palast really dropped the ball. Please read Heinberg's letter to him.

Bushwick Bill Donating Member (340 posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jul-06-06 08:42 PM
Original message
Open Letter From Heinberg to Palast

Nice work from Richard.

An Open Letter to Greg Palast

by Richard Heinberg

Dear Greg,

Congratulations on your new book, Armed Madhouse. As with your previous work, I admire your dedication in exposing the machinations of government and corporate miscreants.

However, this time around you’ve also taken a potshot at a target that I happen to know a good deal about and have been closely involved with for a few years—the efforts by a growing number of analysts to forecast the arrival, and prepare the world for the consequences, of Peak Oil. In this instance I think your negative comments about Peak Oil and those of us who study it are not well informed. Ordinarily I wouldn’t respond to an ill-considered statement by an otherwise admirable author; but unfortunately you go on for several pages on this theme, and I’ve started receiving e-mails from folks who are troubled by what you said. In my many years of fighting to protect our planet from environmental destruction, I have learned how important it is to make sure that our supporters have the most accurate information possible. Time and again, I have seen our opponents seize on internal disagreements as wedges in their drive to weaken and damage the credibility of the environmental movement. I feel the responsibility to help sort out the factual issues in this instance particularly strongly because you have worked so hard to earn your reputation as a truth-teller in these perilous times.
http://www.energybulletin.net/17914.html

more responses here at the Peak Oil Group link:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=266x2133

[emmadoggy]

52. I read a very scary article in Rolling Stone a while back about Peak Oil..

It really shook me. http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/7203633/the_long_emergency

It's another one of those topics though that sort of makes people's eyes roll back in their heads because they just can't conceive of it, sort of like global warming. A week ago, my brother was insisting to me that there was plenty of oil on the planet to last us nearly forever and that more oil is being "created" by earth all the time anyway. :eyes:

I have more fear for the future of this planet than ever right now. It seriously feels like it's all just going to hell in a hand-basket, right-quick. Between all the destruction and mayhem of the Bush administration, the seeming lack of ANY good, strong, intelligent, and SANE leader anywhere in the world, the wars and violence erupting all over the place, and the imminent threats of global warming and peak oil (and world leaders too busy with the aforementioned wars and violence to take notice), just to name a few, have me shaking in my boots these days. What sort of world will my kids be living in?? The whole world has gone insane.

:scared:

[robertpaulsen]

64. Yeah, it's hard to get friends and relatives to REALLY understand Peak Oil

I've been trying to explain it to my Dad for the past two years with no success. But then I loaned him the book The Long Emergency, written by the same guy who wrote the Rolling Stone article you linked, James Howard Kunstler. Now he totally gets it, so I would definitely recommend getting that book for anyone who wants to understand the basics of Peak Oil and how it could possibly affect our future.

[NoSheep]

48. That rings true for me. The greedy fucks.

[neoblues]

6. Then we'd better find a way

to achieve some sort of peace in the middle east and at the very least prevent IRAN from annexing IRAQ (and we more or less owe it to the people of IRAQ to fix the mess we made; a sort of if you broke it, you own it). Besides it's in our long term interests do do something right--what, I don't know. I mean, "military occupation" doesn't seem right, but the alternatives seem even more disasterous. Ideally, if we really could bring a free market economy and democratic constitutional republic to these people who've never before known such freedoms--but such things are indeed foreign to them and it would mean a long-term, painful and costly investment--and one that isn't going to be a walk in the park (and often isn't going to be welcome--as welcome as detox to a crack addict even). However, if we leave, the theocratic lunatic Ahmadinejad will taka advantage, allow the civil war and in the end, IRAQ will become Western IRAN. Between the gigantic oil reserves of IRAN (world's third largest remaining conventional crude oil reserves) combined with those of IRAQ (world's fourth largest reserves), they will... literally have the world over a barrel. A situation we really ought to try to avoid (even if we have to resort to less than ethical behavior? there's the rub).

Nothing is going to be easy and the consequences for the wrong choices may be extreme; meanwhile the whole world may be becoming uninhabitable. Oh joy.

[Blackhatjack]

8. I thought the oil reserves in Venezuela were larger than those in Iran

... or did I read that wrong somewhere?

[GliderGuider]

43. In this case reserves matter much less than flow rates.

Venezuela's "oil" reserves have much in common with Canada's oil sands - they are very heavy tar-like substances that are extremely expensive to refine into usable crude. As a result, the production plants can only get a trickle out of the ground relative to the size of the reserve.

Here's an analogy. Imagine you are stranded in a wheelchair on a cliff looking out over Lake Superior. You have a water pump beside you whose pipe runs down to the lake, but it can deliver you only cup of water a day. Does the size of Lake Superior mean you won't die of thirst?

The size of a reserve is meaningless if you can't access it as fast as you need, which is the case with most unconventional oil reserves.

[neoblues]

57. Actually, there's Considerable Secrecy on that Subject...

Each of the Major Oil Producing nations considers such information to be "State Secrets" as it does matter to their future and their ability to manage deals and the prices of oil and so on. So don't worry, you'll never get a straight answer and you'll never get the same answer twice depending on the source and the date.

Consider things like this, though... Iraq's oil fields are the second largest on Earth
and have the largest unexplored fields anywhere
And, it's true, IRAQ does have enormous unexplored and very likely exceedingly rich oil fields. It's a real gold mine...er.. oil field! It was no doubt very, how shall we say, uh, tempting to certain ex-oil executive, current heads of state, commanders in chief etc...

[neoblues]

58. More to the point, however: Venezuela's Oil Reserves are "Unconventional"

Much of Venezuela's Oil Reserves are considered "Unconventional". It's called "extra heavy oil" and it's found in the Orinoco province of Venezuela. The details can be found here.

[colorado thinker]

9. But they would have the world over a barrel only as long as we

remain dependent on oil. As was stated earlier, $300 billion invested in alternative sources of energy would go a long way toward leveling the playing field. I'm not so naive to think that we could completely cut the supply line, but alternative energy sources, conservation, and rethinking our need to drive everywhere could be a relief valve on the pressure cooker. But this will take an American leader who is not afraid of telling Americans the truth . . .

[Erika]

10. Or at best a govt who wasn't tied to ME profits

Like W and Cheney.

[Chipster]

15. We have alternatives, but we have to develop and use them...

We do have alternatives, but we have to develop and use them.

* For example, while most of the country is baking, wouldn't it be great if we had solar collectors on the roof, using that heat to put energy back into the power grid to help run those fans and air conditioners?

* What about those electric cars? Ford just fell to #3 car maker in the US, and GM's pension obligations are onerous, but will either of them step up and produce energy efficient, alternative vehicles?

Alexandra Paul: Who killed my electric car?
http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/07/25/paul.commentary/index.html

Check out the trailer for Chris Paine's documentary, "Who Killed the Electric Car?" at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsJAlrYjGz8

Check out Jon Stewart's interviews with Chris Paine at:
http://www.comedycentral.com/shows/the_daily_show/videos/celebrity_interviews/index.jhtml

Read about it at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Killed_the_Electric_Car%3F

Or, check out PBS' segment on it, showing that the electric car began in 1832:
http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/223/electric-car-timeline.html

All the talk about the electric cars and alternative fuels made GM mad enough to issue a rebuttal:
http://www.gm.com/company/onlygm/fastlane_Blog.html

[Joanne98]

20. Is "Who killed the electric car" going to play in theatres?

[suziedemocrat]

31. Check out this roof-top wind mill that produces 1100kWh/month!

Skids posted this: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=63058&mesg_id=63067

http://mag-wind.com/

It appears to cost about $10,000.

Summary

* Productivity: 1100 kWh/month in a 13 mph average wind
* Name Plate: 5 kW rated output in 28 mph wind at sea level with 80% relative humidity.
* Cut-In Speed: Less than 5 mph.
* Top Speed: Greater than 100 Mph.
* Economics: Fully burdened cost over 10 years is 3.5 cents per kW.
* ROI: If current bill is $300 per month or more, then ROI 3 years or less.
* Maintenance & Operation Costs: Minimal
* Deployment: Rooftop Urban or Rural Setting.
* Total Estimated Production Run 2006: 3,500 Units
* Production Units Ready Spring 2006

Edit to remove image. I don't want to steal bandwidth.

[Deja Q]

23. Do Americans want to listen? Or are they so patsy they won't want change?

I think real change could be done. But who wants to give up their television and other forms of isolation? It's better to be dog-eat-dog and let people kill each other. Especially when the losers kill the smart ones; all that does is devolve humanity and the losers will lose in the end too.

Okay, it isn't better for people to kill each other - I just want to clarify that. But that's how other people seem to be; keeping what they've got at the expense of everyone else.

[thecrow]

12. K&R

Oh.My.God indeed!
Although I would recommend titling this something else; I almost didn't read it because of the title...

[Comadreja]

13. I have hated the car culture since I can remember

Now I'm 54. I hope I will live to see its demise.

[MisterHowdy]

24. Good riddens.

I hate oil and our over-dependence on it.

[vickitulsa]

26. Not only do military methods USE energy and wreck the planet

along the way, the obvious plain fact that so many seem to be ignoring is that even when we win the war, the goal of securing oil is not achieved!

I don't understand why anyone would think invading, conquering, and occupying Iran would assure the West (primarily the U.S. of course) of a steady flow of abundant oil from their reserves. Has that tactic worked in Iraq? Guerrilas know full well that they can inflict terrible damage on America by simply blowing up sections of major pipelines on a regular basis. Where is the money from Iraqi oil that Wolfowitz promised would PAY FOR the war in Iraq and its reconstruction??

Never materialized, did it. And the same would be true if the U.S. were to invade Iran with a similar notion in mind. Truth is, however, the Saudis have been producing at near-maximum capacity for some time now, just trying to keep crude oil prices from going out the roof -- which would prove harmful to their House of Bush counterparts here. It's all a big game to such ultra-wealthy types, but they are smart enough to recognize that things have come to a critical point with respect to the world's dependence on fossil fuels for energy. The "game" has become deadly serious now, and I don't think we're seeing steps being taken (as recommended by Carter and many others) that will ease the pressure on the oil market.

One thing I can never get around, however, is the plain fact that American citizens appear never to have been willing to break their own addiction to fossil fuels. A lot of individual Americans have reached this point, and some organizations have even been formed to develop alternative energy sources. But it's way too little, and way too late in the game! A "crash" program of massive scale would be necessary if we were to stand even a small chance of coming out of this stage without world oil wars as well as world WATER WARS devastating the entire planet....

Every time I see skyscrapers in cities burning most of their interior lighting all night long when no one is even there to need them, I just want to throw up my hands in disgust. The wastefulness of America when it comes to energy is just like our wastefulness of everything else. We've been successfully shaped by greedy mega-corporate types into a society that thinks everything should be disposable. The trend toward ever more wasteful and damaging packaging of products is a good case in point -- just watch a few commercials these days for new ways to clean your toilet bowl, for instance, utilizing bulky products to be flushed after only one use. It's just crazy, the way we do things here in this country!

Back in the 60's when it first became clear to me that we were facing a big problem of waste disposal in the U.S., I used to say that we were soon going to be finding ourselves "standing knee-deep in Pampers shooting rockets at the moon." It was an image I had of the insanity of our priorities.

Standing in even more jarring contrast is the fact that we humans are smart enough to send members of our race to walk on the moon, but we can't seem to solve the complex problems which threaten life and stability on our own planet. I think that is why I got hooked on science fiction very early in my life -- I had a sense even as a kid that I might well need to plan to emigrate from earth to another world in order to survive. As I grew a little older, I thought SURELY humanity would see that we're destroying our own beautiful world and find ways to stop doing that and preserve its natural beauty and natural resources. My optimism in that regard has long gone by the way.

My dad, a WWII vet, used an old military saying to describe this sort of insane behavior: "Shitting in your own messkit."

Well, I guess we've shat in ours for so long now the bacterial infections we've developed as a result have made us all too crazy to realize we're sealing our own doom. We just keep doing the same things over and over again, expecting different results. The very definition of insanity....

[tex-wyo-dem]

50. Very astute post, thank you...n/t

[snappyturtle]

27. OMG! is right!!!! K&R

[progressoid]

34. How solid is this story and it's source?

[jpkenny]

35. Which story? Carter's plan or the story from the insider?

[colorado thinker]

39. How solid is the story?

The Energy Bulletin is a blog, a collection of papers, essays, articles from oil scientists, newspapers from around the world, etc. Very dry reading, usually, but a good compilation I believe.


George Ure is who he is. I don't subscribe to his site, but regularly check the daily sheet he posts for free. I don't agree with ALL of his positions but he makes for interesting reading. What the hey, a little more knowledge can't hurt. You might want to go to his home page and read the statement about why he started this daily sheet.

[progressoid]

49. It's going to happen at some time anyway

So it doesn't matter if this can't be corroborated at this time. It's going to happen soon anyway.

I'll bookmark that site for some winter reading.

[Stephanie]

38. what is that about water-injection?

what does that mean?

[colorado thinker]

40. As I understand it, they force saline into the fields

when the "sweet" oil is gone, it forces up the oil that is less accessible, saturated into rock, etc. I'm not an expert, I'm sure someone else can give a better explanation.

[GliderGuider]

44. I'll add my own meagre knowledge to the pot

The problem with water injection is twofold. First, the water being pumped in at high pressure can migrate through the rock and "get ahead" of the oil. When this happens you start pumping out the water instead of oil, and the bypassed oil is trapped behind the water and rendered unrecoverable. The second problem is that when the water begins to infiltrate the oil-bearing strata, even the oil that is recovered contains more and more water referred to as a "water cut". The oil then has to be separated from the water, increasing the cost of recovery. When that cost rises to an unprofitable level, the well is said to be "watered out". Ghawar is believed to be facing both these problems. An insider has spoken of wells producing "brine stained with oil".

Saudi Arabia has a third problem related to that last point. In order to preserve their own depleting fresh water supplies, they are using salt ocean water as the injection material. When this gets into the production equipment it causes massive corrosion problems.

Like you, I've been reading Peak Oil sites for the last couple of years. Everything I've learned tells me we are facing a massive global crisis, starting within less than a handful of years. We have three major problems in dealing with it. Validated information is very hard to come by; it is not in the interests of the corporatocracy to wake up the sheep; and worst of all, there may be no global solution we can implement in the time we have left. I advise everyone I talk to about this to adopt a lifeboat mentality - make sure you, those you love, and those in your community are as energy-independent as possible. This includes growing your own food as well as cutting your personal dependence on fossil fuels as much as possible. When TSHTF this time, you need to be wearing a raincoat.

[colorado thinker]

45. Excellent points

We have been collecting "antique" objects, hand drills, foot pedal sewing machines, meat grinders, oil lamps, etc. I have given up my gas-powered lawn mower for a push mower (saves gas, doesn't pollute, cheaper than joining a health club). We've had hugely high temperatures and dryer than normal times lately and I work 50 to 60 hours a week or I'd have a garden in the back yard instead of all that useless grass. My house is all electric, no natural gas, so solar panels and/or wind generation is the next big thing to acquire. Not ready yet, but the plans may call for an adobe or straw bale house with solar and wind, to get us off the grid ASAP.

My other sister bought an Amish buggy and is training her saddle horses to become buggy horses. Life will be going backwards about 100 years, folks.

[leftupnorth]

46. water injection is common on declining fields.

injecting water or brine, especially superheated, makes the remaining oil float on top of the large amount of hot brine, where it can be extracted easier.

[Tight_rope]

60. HOLY SHIT!....We are chop liver!

[MadHound]

61. This may be a scoop to the public at large

But if you read the oil trade rags and pay attention to oil news, you would have seen this coming years ago. It has been an open secret for about five years now that Ghawar was starting to dry up. It was reported back in 2001 that the amount of seawater being pumped into Ghawar to push the oil up to the surface was twice the volume of the actual oil recovered. That is a sure sign that an oil field is drying up.

And yes, Iran becomes ever more important to these oily administration folks. They are indeed trying to get into an Iranian war, it was all part of the PNAC plan to control the last remaining large sources of oil. This also allows them the leverage to fulfill their dreams of opening up the Artic National Refuge to rape and pillage, all for a paltry three year supply of oil.

What's really sad however is that this can all be avoided if we switched to biodiesel that is derived from algae. It has been shown that we can produce enough algae based biodiesel to fill all of our fuel needs<http://www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_alge.html> And biodiesel is the fuel that would best utilize our gasoline based fuel infrastructure. It is also a very clean, renewable fuel that would revitalize our agricultural sector. Yet sadly, with the oil barons in charge, we're going to continue to persue an oil only energy policy until we go straight over the cliff.

If the Democrats want to make a real difference, they should start pushing alternative, renewable energy sources now. Biodiesel can take care of our fuel needs, while wind and solar can fulfill our electrical demands. In this age of dramatically rising energy prices, now would seem to be the time that these alternatives would resonate with the public and be a winning issue. Sadly though, since most national Dems are also in the back pocket of the oil industry, I doubt that this will be persued, and the American public is going to be left to fend for ourselves as our energy structure, along with our economy, collapses around us.