Lieberman won't run...

[David Ippolito]

If you ask me, (And, nobody really does.) Republicans are now likely to find a more viable candidate in that race, and the pressure on Lieberman will increase behind closed doors.

He will not run as an Independent.

If he does... he won't even have a future as political commentator, consultant, pundit.

Hell... he wouldn't be able to get a job as a page.

[indie_voter]

1. That is what my husband thinks too

He said wait for a couple weeks, that this was just Lieberman blowing smoke. He thinks the party machine will get him to back down, and he'll go away quietly.

[patricia92243]

5. I agree with your hubby. This too shall pass away. n/t

[The Deacon]

2. Apparently He Has Already Filed

Even though every Democrat who supported him in the primary has announced for Lamont.

[iamjoy]

3. How Can Republicans Get Another Candidate

they already have one and the Primary is over.

[WilliamPitt]

4. Shhhhh...

Uninformed theorizing is the main sport around here. Remember, last night it was "Diebold will steal it" even though there aren't any Diebold machines in CT. The people kicking that one out there would have known better if they had taken the time to look it up. Ditto above.

Shhhh...

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Popcorn anyone

:popcorn:

[SteppingRazor]

12. Actually, in CT, a party can replace a candidate if that candidate....

drops out of the race.

So, the GOP can lean on Schlesinger to drop out -- especially in light of the man's recent gambling scandal -- and then replace him with a stronger candidate.

Honestly, Will... chastizing people for not knowing what's up when you yourself don't know? For shame! :evilgrin:

On edit: At least according to Political Wire, that is :shrug:

[ronnykmarshall]

31. Lieberman would be not only toast ...

but burnt toast thrown down the garberator if he switched (officially) to the GOP. Democrats that back him now would jump ship like crazy.

[Renew Deal]

20. Actually, here is an article about getting a new republican candidate

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=103&topic_id=227787&mesg_id=227787

[WilliamPitt]

26. Actually, what is more likely

is that the GOP will want a weak candidate to help Lieberman, and they will convince this guy to drop out a week before the election and throw his support to Joe. Here's an article about that:

http://abcnews.blogs.com/theworldnewser/

The White House might help Lieberman by putting the kibosh on any move to replace the weak Republican candidate, Alan Schlesinger, with a stronger candidate.

And it might be able to convince Schlesinger to drop out of the race and endorse Lieberman in the final week or two, when it's too late for another candidate to fill the GOP slot. A quiet White House effort to steer some money in Lieberman's direction is another possibility.

[SteppingRazor]

32. I think, all in all, we'll have the same three candidates in November...

that we do right now. If Schlesinger was gonna drop out, he'd have done it a month ago when he was painted as a degenerate gambler. He knows he's screwed now, but he's still in. So, he'll probably stay in, but the campaign's coffers will fizzle out, and you won't hear much about him by November. But, he'll have the "R" next to his name, so straight-party types will still vote for him, and he'll wind up with about 10 percent of the vote.

Purely my opinion. :)

[caligirl]

7. Rove has already offered help.

[LisaM]

8. I completely agree

He will get offered some lobbyist job and will drop out of the race. Worse, he could become Secretary of Defense, which would be a nightmare, but I really think he will leave the race.

[goodhue]

9. It is too late for another Republican candidate

And Lieberman has already filed to meet today's 4pm deadline. Today's deadline is no new or no party candidates. Major party candidates deadline was long ago. See calendar here http://www.sots.ct.gov/ElectionsServices/Calendars/2006Election/2006.pdf

[SteppingRazor]

15. The GOP can still replace him...

if he drops out. They just can't kick him out and replace him of their own free will. Of course, they can always pressure Schlesinger to drop out...

[WI_DEM]

10. Faux would still hire him, but if he isn't going to run as an indy

why has he filed and why is he insisting he will?

[VolcanoJen]

33. He filed to run for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, too

And then he dropped out. Because he lost.

Joe's blowing smoke; he's emotional, crushed by defeat, and is having difficulty dealing with the hand he's been dealt. As weeks pass, he'll realize what an uphill battle mounting an independent campaign would be. He'll withdraw. He'll issue a statement about wanting to spend more time with his family.

If Rove really is throwing his support behind Lieberman today (rumor), that's just a typical Rovian reaction. He can gain traction on the story. He can get into the headlines. He can control the message for a day. But Karl Rove is GOP-All-The-Way, and he's not going to crap all over his party in the long run. Don't expect any Republican support of Lieberman to last.

[leveymg]

11. If not as a page, can Lieberman work as a 2-ply sheet?

[David Ippolito]

13. I actually was not aware...

... that the deadline passed yesterday.

Perhaps the RNC will do the "Delay Thing" and try to back a write-in.

All I know is... Lieberman is toast, and he oughta be.

He showed me the kind of man he is when, during the primary race a few years ago, he responded to Howard Dean's statement that the war in Iraq made "America less safe."

An hour later, when Lieberman was being interviewed, he looked straight into the camera lens and said that he couldn't believe anyone would say that the world was better of with Saddam Hussein in power.

Any sentient, reasonable and person of integrity knew full well that was not what Dean said.

Joe knew it, too.

But, he saw a crack in the door and he went for it. Now that, to me, is unconscienable political bullsh*t... and shows, to the core, the character of a human being.

[speedoo]

14. That's not a fair comment......

Lumping Lieberthug and pages in the same comment is a major disservice to pages.

Hell, lumping anyone in the same comment with that traitor is a disservice.

:puke:

[neoblues]

16. From listening to callers on C-SPAN

It sounded like Republicans do have another candidate, Lieberman... they don't seem to mind the labels; "Independent", "Independent Democrat", whatever, they know he's their kind of 'conservative'...

[kskiska]

17. Between now and November the perception of Lamont's inevitability

will grow and Joe will fade into the distance, I believe. It may sound good to him today to announce his Independent candidacy, but come November, Lamont will have a larger following than today.

[samsingh]

18. he'll go work for fox

[VolcanoJen]

19. Of course he won't run. There is no Lieberman candidacy anymore.

There's simply no mechanism for an independent bid by Joe. Does everyone realize how much it costs to run a Senate campaign? Lamont gets all the Dem money, because parties take care of their own. Lamont gets the organization, the GOTV machine, the phone banks, the Dem Senate Leadership, the best of the best to serve as surrogate talking heads to support him. Cream of the crop, all the big names. Lamont gets the enormous ad buys that win elections in the closing weeks. He also gets the blogs, and I don't think anyone will ever underestimate their impact again. All in all, The Party is a big, powerful, beautiful machine.

What does Joe get? Who lines up behind him? There is no Independent Party. He's on his own. He has to find his own money, and he has to find A LOT of it. How the hell is he going to pull that off? Is he going to knock on doors himself? I imagine Joe still has some Democrats left on his campaign staff, and they're going to leave him, because they don't want to get blackballed by the party forever. All those fools standing behind him on that stage last night? They're gone next week. Joe is dunzo.

It's going to take a few weeks, but he's going to wake up and smell the reality. He can't go it alone. And Rove might want to reach out to him and help him, but in the end, Karl Rove is a Party Man, and he's not going to crap all over the GOP because he's bitter about losing his favorite Democrat.

Joe won't run. He can't. It's impossible, and if we can't see that today, don't worry. It'll become crystal clear in the coming weeks.

Look for one of those sobering, "After much reflection, I've decided to spend more time with my family, and to pursue the causes I am most passionate about" speeches from Joe Lieberman.

He's headed down Katherine Harris Boulevard, and he's going to make a right on Zell Miller Lane. :-)

[senseandsensibility]

23. I like your analysis

What funding IS Joey planning on using, I wonder? I haven't heard this addressed anywhere, not even on DU. Does he have any left from the primary that he can use? Is this legal? I think your post should be a separate thread. I really would like to read more about this, and if your are correct, a lot of the current teeth gnashing is unnecessary.:-) Here's hoping you are!:toast: You brightened my day, anyway.

[VolcanoJen]

25. Thank you! Like I said, Joe's independent bid is entirely hypothetical.

Who's going to go on Chris Matthews and Tim Russert to stand up for Joe Lieberman?

He was a popular guy when he was a Democrat from Connecticut. He was a popular guy when he had the Dem Leadership standing behind him.

Who does he have now?

[senseandsensibility]

35. Please start another thread with this analysis, Jen.

I don't think I'm the only one who would like to read and discuss it.:)

[VolcanoJen]

36. Well.... ok.

I bit the bullet. I hope we get some thoughtful responses! Or any responses... :-)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1864837

[LSK]

24. I think your analysis is spot on n/t

[LTR]

29. Spot on!

Good analysis!

:toast:

[Hokie]

37. The best analysis that have heard today

I agree. Joe is the media darling now but that will fade quickly and he will turn into a pathetic has been.

[tyedyeto]

39. I don't believe Rove will help Lie-berman financially but...

the dirty tricks/swiftboating is another tactic he will use to help the Loser in November.

[hfojvt]

40. doesn't it depend on how much money he still has?

GOTV and phone banking I think are as over-rated as yard signs. I think the RNC might raise funds for him because that is perhaps their best chance of getting a non-Democrat in that office.

[Sydnie]

41. That's a brilliant analysis

and I hope that is exactly what comes to pass.

[longship]

21. I agree, too.

He'll get fringe support from people like Salazar and Carper--Hey DUers, contact them and tell them what you think about that. Joe will otherwise be alone in the wilderness. No prominent Dem will support him. He'll hopefully lose his committee assignments. But he'll run a bitter, negative campaign. The best thing Lamont can do is to keep things positive but demean Lieberman as a bitter man who will not admit defeat.

[Kazak]

22. That's what I think too...

He's gotta put on a show though.

[lumpy]

27. Lieberman should gracefully step

down and support the candidate his constituents have chosen. The 'people have spoken' doesn't mean beans to so many of our so-called representatives.

[bigtree]

28. he'll get talked down in the next couple of weeks by his 'supporters'

as the public support evaporates

[B Calm]

30. With the blood of our soldiers on his hands, I think it would

take a lot of gall if really does run.

[VolcanoJen]

34. K&R - I do wish everyone would read this thread.

Because I think we're right, and maybe it would calm everyone down.

:-)

[Cleita]

38. Isn't there the last phrase in "The Farmer in the Dell" where

"the cheese stands alone". It sort of reminds me of what is going to happen to Lieberman.