First post-primary poll: Lieberman: 46% Lamont 41%

[WI_DEM]

and the "official" republican candidate 6%

Not insurmountable, but after the clamour of Lamont winning I thought he would be ahead.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/Story?id=156238
(it's on the second page)

Joe's going to try and play spoiler.

p.s.
The previous Rasmussen poll on a three way race prior to the primary had it 40-40-13, so the GOP candidate goes from 13 to 6 percent and Joe goes from 40 to 46--you can see who the Republicans are breaking to!

[unda cova brutha]

1. it will just get worst whne the repugs use the deebold factor

[WI_DEM]

4. no "deebold" in CT (if there was don't you think Joe would have

won the primary)?

[seriousstan]

8. Shhhhh. Keep that fact based crap to yourself. Diebold and Rove

control everything. I found a 24 pack of Gatorade in Rove's trunk.

[zbdent]

17. Why would they want Lieberman to win the primary?

When Lieberman can trash the Dem candidate, and the Repuke hands can "be clean" ...

Repuke tactic was to split the vote ... similar to what the Repukes are trying to do with the Green candidate in Penn.

[skids]

5. CT uses lever machines.

If they are to be rigged, it will have to be done "old school" and won't be nearly as effective as e-rigging.

[jobycom]

20. I doubt it. "Old school" vote stealing has a much more proven

history than e-rigging, and it's harder to detect. It has certainly shaped Texas history.

[skids]

25. Levers are a tough nut...

In NY, about the best they can do is wait for notches to wear out in the back of the machine and neglect to repair them, then change the ballot order and distribute the machines such that problems tend to cluster where they want them.

Naturally oversight is tantamount, and probably not as good as it should be, but I would hazard to say that lever machines as a system are securable to the point of not being a major threat, if there is proper organizational structuring of the supporting offices.

[jobycom]

36. The problem isn't at the casting stage

Paper and evoting are very reliable at that stage, too. The problem is what happens before and after the casting. The lever machines themselves may work perfectly, but votes can be added at the end, or the results can be changed. There was a primary in Texas in 56 between the former senator Price Daniels former AG Ralph Yarborough. Ralph was a populist, but the ruling Dem party in Texas was conservative, and didn't want him to win. He had run twice before (2 year terms back then) and lost by smaller margins. In this election, he seems to have won by about 30,000 votes, but the officials simply announced that Daniels had won by 9,000, and Daniels became governor.

Electronic voting is no more dangerous than any other style of voting, it just has its own unique way of cheating. The secret isn't to find one unbeatable system, because there is none--the stakes are too high, someone will game it. The secret is diligently monitoring whatever system is chosen. E-voting can work fine if the codes are made public, and each machine is tested properly beforehand. Full transparency, in other words. And any other system can be cheated if no one is paying attention.

Funny aside: Daniels had resigned as senator to run for governor in 56 because the Party believed that the incumbent was going to lose, and they wanted to keep Yarborough out of office. When Yarborough lost, he ran immediately in the special election for Daniel's senate seat, and won. Wound up as senator for 13 years, almost becoming JFK's VP instead of LBJ. He lost to Lloyd Bentsen in the 1970 primary, when Bentsen attacked him for opposing Viet Nam and supporting Civil Rights too strongly, and for opposing two of Nixon's SCOTUS nominations. It was Lamont/Lieberman in reverse, with the party siding with the incumbent with a rogure reputation, and the new upstart claiming he was more in step with the party, and that Yarborough had become too extremist. Like Lieberman, Yarborough had a strong reputation as a moral candidate. Yarborough had trouble letting it go, too, and ran again in 1972 for the other senate seat. 20 years later he was still bitter at Bentsen and everyone who had supported him. So were his followers. I went to his funeral, and at one point an older man asked me if I knew where John Connally was buried. I pointed up the hill at his tall black monument. The man looked from that, to Yarborough's grave, shook his head, and said "That's too close."

[Renew Deal]

32. There's always one or two people in ever thread to shout DEEBOLD

Whether there is any or not. It's kind of funny.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

2. You don't believe only 6% of CT voters are Republican, do you?

It is them who comprise Holy Joe Nader's constituency.

Hell, I expect Shlesinger to drop out and endorse Lieberman before the election.

[WI_DEM]

7. No breakdown on numbers, but the GOP candidate is very weak

and probably when the numbers are released it will show Lieberman leading with Republicans.

[Teaser]

21. There is no way the repub will pull less than 10%.

no way at all.

If you're a pro-life fundy, are you going to vote for a pro-choice Democrat? Ever?

And they make up more than 1/3 of the GOP base. Probably more than 1/2.

[WI_DEM]

24. this particular candidate has serious problems and CT republicans

are not necessarily the same as some TX republican.

[Teaser]

27. Agreed. But consider

The Republican will be first on the ballot. Lieberman will be last.

Do you know hom many voters just go in and vote their party, regardless? I'd bet at least 20% of the electorate.

So Joe Repub goes into the box, sees the first republican at the top...and pulls the lever because there is an R after the name without thinking. That isn't an unlikely scenario.

If Schlesinger stays in, and that is not a given, I will wager that he gets more than 10% of the vote. I'd bet he gets more than 15.

I'd photograph myself wearing a fish on my head and post it here if I lose.

[n2doc]

35. What about the "straight ticket" lever?

Doesn't Cn have that on their machines? I can imagine quite a few Pukes just being lazy and pulling that lever instead of having to pick 'n choose...Won't help Joe...

[OwnedByFerrets]

3. I an shocked at these numbers.

Something has to be wrong with those numbers, dont they?

[skids]

11. Nope, this is what happens...

...when over half of the Republican voters switch to the DINO.

Don't worry, it'll smooth back out. Ned has the "I don't know who this guy is" factor going for him -- people will find out as time goes on. Everyone already knows who Joe is -- he won't get that bounce.

[OregonBlue]

28. I agree. These numbers are not bad. Lamont hasn't even really

started an all out campaign. Once the national Dems start campaigning for Lamont and put some real money into this campaign, it will turn around!!

[MallRat]

13. Nope. Republicans would vote for Lieberman before Schlesinger.

But will Schlesinger be replaced on the ballot? Rumors are the answer may be YES.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1885792&mesg_id=1885792

If the GOP puts a real candidate into this race, Lieberman drops into the 20's, and Lamont starts packing his bags for Washington.

-MR

[Avalux]

6. Repugs are supporting Lieberman -

The "official" repug candidate might as well be invisible. RNC idiot Mehlman refused to endorse him on national TV and instead went on to talk about Lieberman. I'm sure all repugs will get their marching orders to vote for Lieberman in November.

[Hugin]

9. Oh, it's ABC? Nevermind.

Whew... I was worried there for a second.

[julialnyc]

10. Well, just remember how Lieberman used to poll vs Lamont

Lieberman used to be deemed unbeatable, but he wasn't.

Also, the huge wave of attention that lamont would have gotten after the election was taken away by the terrorism news. Come November Iraq will be even messier..... Lamont will have democratic support behind him...... and Lieberman will surly stick his foot in his mouth many times.

[WI_DEM]

16. the funny thing is that the last poll was 40-40-13 it seems that the GOP

vote switched to Lieberman (GOP candidate went from 13 to 6 while Joe goes from 40 to 46)

[chelsea0011]

12. Yes, Joe could win this with 44% of the vote and that would be a mandate

in his mind.

[TahitiNut]

14. People get the government we deserve.

:shrug:

[Bozita]

15. Mallrat's thread says CT GOP will replace Schlesinger

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1885792

[WI_DEM]

22. We'll see

Remember Rove and a bunch of other Republicans are behind Lieberman and will they allow this to happen?

[helderheid]

18. time for us to roll up our sleeves and get to work.

[Greeby]

19. All of this presumes Loserman will get on the ballot

Which is in doubt
http://www.courant.com/news/local/hc-sa-petitions-0811,0,1277416.story?coll=hc-headlines-local

[WI_DEM]

23. he'll get on I predict

[rinsd]

33. In doubt?

While they haven't been verified, 18,000 submitted for 7,500 required is very likely going to meet the requirements even with bad sigs (not registered voter, unconfirmable address, etc).

[fishwax]

26. barely outside the margin of error

and nothing to really worry about. I figured the first poll would show them roughly tied, since joe would pull a lot of repubs and almost nobody, right after the primary, would be thinking about schlesinger.

But schlesinger does plan to campaign (at least, he said so on msnbc on the night of the primary), so that will drop some of joe's numbers. Also, republicans will be much less motivated to show up at the polls, so I think a smaller percentage of lieberman's percentage will show. Further, in the next month Joe's campaign will suffer from the lack of the democratic party's infrastructure, finances, and intellectual resources, even while Lamont puts to work the support of the party and its leadership. If Joe even makes it to the middle of september (far from a given), he'll be behind in the polls by then. Finally, there are almost three months before the election, which is plenty of time for lamont (having run left to secure the nomination) to display the various ways in which he isn't a left-wing radical extremist.

[WI_DEM]

29. you may have a point about republicans not being as motivated

to vote in November while the Lamont vote will be highly motivated.

[Individualist]

30. Consider the source,

one of the cabal's obedient propaganda conduits.

[WI_DEM]

31. well, on the other hand aren't they all?

and besides Rasmussen has been pretty good this election year. They have consistently shown Dems ahead in PA, OH, Montana and show very tight race in MO and in RI they have Whitehouse five points ahead of Chafee. So I don't necessarily discount it, but I do want to see if other polls will verify it.

[Individualist]

34. Of course they are

That's why I said "one of" rather than "the". The fact that there are so many doesn't make ABC any more credible.

[milkyway]

37. Very good news! I thought it would be a lot worse. Much of the Dem

machine will be moving from Sore Loserman to Lamont, which will have a big impact. Also, Lieberman seemed to get mostly favorable press from the corporate media. As the high profile Dems, unions and other interest groups move from Loserman to Lamont, Loserman will seem more and more like a whiny little prick, an isolated party of one.

Joe Lieberman is a dead man walking.