Ethanol, Corn Users May Deplete US Supplies By 2008

[lovuian]

http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/37650/story.htm

WASHINGTON - US ethanol manufacturers, foodmakers and livestock feeders are consuming so much corn (maize) that stockpiles could be depleted by 2008, unless plantings expand sharply, analysts said on Friday.


In its first forecast of the fall harvest, the USDepartment of Agriculture estimated on Friday the corn crop at 10.976 billion bushels (278.8 million tonnes), the third-largest crop ever.
Corn usage now exceeds production by a small margin.

But in the 2006/07 marketing year, which opens Sept. 1, importers and US industry will consume 839 million bushels or 7 percent more corn than is being grown, according to USDA.

"There's definitely need for more corn," said analyst Mark McMinimy of Stanford Washington Research, especially with the ethanol industry growing "bigger and hungrier" each year.

more...

So the cheap US Government corn runs out in 2008 when Bush leaves.......

[Hekate]

1. Just stop putting high fructose corn syrup into everything in sight

We'll be healthier all the way around.

Hekate

[annabanana]

6. Maybe if we can put fritos in the gas tank?

Or pull up to a big tank of caramel corn?

[Deja Q]

7. But that's a solution! We can't have that!

Road rage, global warming, population, pollution - the media tells us about all these things and has for decades. The fact little has changed speaks volumes.

[MUSTANG_2004]

11. And end the subsidy of Big Sugar

The richest country in the world, and we have to use corn syrup as sweetener because the government is protecting Big Sugar's monopoly.

[OnionPatch]

15. There ya go!

That's probably where are half of all the corn goes now. It's in freaking EVERYTHING. Is that really necessary?

[elehhhhna]

2. Also, corn is one of the least efficient large crops for ethanol

production. Every decent famer knows it.

[opihimoimoi]

3. Drive Less, Eat More.....

[Mr_Spock]

14. Corn is not really a staple here in the US

Most is used to make corn syrup which is terrible stuff anyway.

Also, being independant of ME oil is a worthy goal IMO.

[MUSTANG_2004]

18. Sort of

It may not be a major staple for people, but it is for livestock.

[Mr_Spock]

19. That's true

I forgot about the poor livestock that eats a ton of that stuff.

[Mr_Spock]

12. I was going ot post this myself

They really need to convert to a more effiecient fuel based crop where they are going to use it for ethanol.

[Snivi Yllom]

22. Brazil's not so big secret - sugar cane

Their ethanol is based on sugar cane, maybe the best source material for ethanol.

[OnionPatch]

16. I've heard that and I told someone about it

She wants a link for some info on that topic? Do you have any links? I don't remember where I read that.

[MadHound]

4. Ethanol is not the answer, however there is another renewable fuel that is

That would be biodiesel. You cannot grow enough corn, or other ethanol crops, on the amount of arable land that we have in the US. However, on 15,000 square miles of water, you can grow enough oil bearing algae to fuel the entire country. And most of that algae can be put in the holding ponds of wastewater treatment plants across the country. Two benefits, clean water cheaper, and biodiesel to fuel the country. Win-win. However to do this, we would have to mandate that every single vehicle, car, truck, motorcycle, be manufactured with a diesel engine.

Biodiesel is clean, renewable fuel. Using it would end our oil addiction while benefitting the agricultural sector. It is high time we started switching over to it.

[greenman3610]

8. Good call

I came across a very useful thread of
bio fuel/ethanol discussions the other day.
ethanol skepticism is justified- but
not entirely a showstopper, in my mind.


http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/6/26/191251/537

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/7/29/205642/963

Tad Patzek Interview:
http://gog2g.com/2006/07/10/my-indepth-interview-with-tad-patzek.aspx

David Pimentel Interview:
http://gog2g.com/2006/07/13/my-interview-with-david-pimentel.aspx

VINOD KHOSLA Responds:
http://gog2g.com/2006/07/14/vinod-khosla-responds.aspx

David Pimentels Response:
http://gog2g.com/2006/07/19/david-pimentel-has-something-to-say.aspx

Fellow Bloggers Response to David Pimentel:
http://gog2g.com/2006/07/20/a-fellow-bloggers-indepth-response-to-david-pimentel.aspx

More can be found at http://www.GoG2G.com

[Mr_Spock]

17. The major caveat there is switching all vehicles to diesel engines

Biodiesel is a good alternative otherwise. I did not realize that there could be enough capacity to supply all of our vehicles using the source you have described. There is the possibility of genetically engineered crops to produce 10x or more ethanol than corn crops. We'll see how this pans out but I have a feeling both will find their way into currently produced vehicles as ethanol has a big head start over biodiesel. In the end, biodiesel may be the better solution, but it will take some time.

[MadHound]

20. Why would it be hard to switch to diesel engines

Frankly you mandate it by law, modeled on the CAFE standards, ie within X number of years, every single car, truck, SUV, motorcycle, boat, etc are powered by a diesel engine. It isn't that difficult to substitute a diesel engine for a gas one on the production line. And diesels have indeed been placed in all of these vehicles before.

And frankly I don't want any more GE crops out there than we already have. GE crops have a huge potential for wiping out natural diversity. Also, the way the law reads now if your organic corn(or other crop) is pollinated by a GE strain of pollen, your crop can be seized and destroyed by whatever company, ADM, Monsanto, etc, who produced the GE crop under patent infringement laws. And you get absolutely no compensation.

GE crops are a ticking time bomb in our enviroment. They ruin natural diversity, they kill plants and insects their not supposed to, they force small and organic farmers out of business, and are a health threat to humans.

And I think that ethanol might give way to biodiesel after '08. Bushco is pushing ethanol in order to please his monetary backers at ADM and Monsanto. However if we get a Dem in office, with a Dem Congress who aren't tied to Big Ag, then ehtanol will hopefully die on the vine. It needs to, for it is an inefficient energy source that requires specially manufactured engines. Biodiesel has been around for 150 years, has a proven track record, is less polluting, cheaper to make, and is better for an engine's longetivity. And like I said earlier, we can use it to manufacture all the fuel we will ever need.

Ethanol is making the big splash now because of this intense media blitz about it. But there has been a steady push of biodiesel, with refineries opening around the country on a regular basis. Those who know their fuels recognize it as the superior fuel solution for the future.

[4dsc]

24. Time!!!

Inasmuch as this is a great idea, one has to realize that TIMe is the major factor here and its something IMHO, that we have run out of.. WHY??

It would take TIME to get this algea idea off the ground(meanwhile oil depletion continues). Are we talking 10 to 20 years??

In about 20 years the world will go from producing 84 million barrels a oil per day to about 50 mbpd.. How much do you think this will effect the world economy and how much would a new diesel car cost then??

[MadHound]

26. Same amount of time to develop ethanol

In fact there are more diesel engines by far on the road than ethanol ones. In addition, the infrastructure for transporting, delivering, and distributing biodiesel is already in place, and would take little or no modification. As for ethanol, you would have to replace various rubber parts in the infrastructure nationwide in order to accomodate ethanol with its highly corrosive nature.

Any switch from our current fuel infrastructure is going to cost both time and money. That is why we should start now, and use a solution like biodiesel which would cost less, and take less time to switch over. After all, how many years would it take to start producing biodiesel? One, since all you have to do is introduce it into water, and most wastewater treatment plants are already built for algae growth. Employ the farmers needed to take care of it and harvest it. Refineries are already being built. The infrastructure is already there, needing little or no modification. Therefore all we would have to do is mandate that at X date, every vehicle must have a diesel engine.:shrug: A hell of a lot shorter breakin time than going for ethanol.

Yes, we have a time crunch, but a switch off of gasoline is going to take time. Don't let that time crunch cloud your judgement, otherwise in twenty years we'll be even worse off. Biodiesel is the answer, we just need to start implementing it now.

[soothsayer]

5. mebbe we'll quit paying farmers not to grow stuff

[Dickster]

9. I hate to burst your bubble, but...

Farmers no longer get subsidies to not raise crops, that went out with the last farm bill six years ago.

[TX-RAT]

29. Hate to bust YOUR bubble

But the CRP program is alive and well.

http://www.fsa.usda.gov/dafp/cepd/crp.htm

[Javaman]

10. People will die of starvation while driving in their cars. nt

[BlooInBloo]

13. Yah - America run outta corn - that'll be the day...

[Buns_of_Fire]

21. Well, there's always hemp...

When Henry Ford told a New York Times reporter that ethyl alcohol was "the fuel of the future" in 1925, he was expressing an opinion that was widely shared in the automotive industry. "The fuel of the future is going to come from fruit like that sumach out by the road, or from apples, weeds, sawdust -- almost anything," he said. "There is fuel in every bit of vegetable matter that can be fermented. There's enough alcohol in one year's yield of an acre of potatoes to drive the machinery necessary to cultivate the fields for a hundred years."

Ford recognized the utility of the hemp plant. He constructed a car of resin stiffened hemp fiber, and even ran the car on ethanol made from hemp. Ford knew that hemp could produce vast economic resources if widely cultivated.

http://www.artistictreasure.com/learnmorecleanair.html

I don't know that I'm going to hold my breath waiting for it to be widely cultivated, though.

[MadHound]

23. Hemp has many wonderful uses,

And should be reimplemented as a cash crop again. However any land based crop used for fuel faces one insurmountable problem, it is competing for land with food crops. While you can fill part of the nation's fuel need with land based crops, you're not going to fill enough of it to meet the fuel demand we have. That is why we need to go to water based crops like oil bearing algae for our fuel needs.

However hemp does need to be put back into the mix. It enriches the soil, is great for biodiesel, paper, cloth, food and a host of other uses. And indeed it can be grown in places no other cash crops will grow.

[johnaries]

25. DON'T USE CORN! Use prairie grasses.

No, ethanol isn't the silver bullet, but it can be a major component of a total integrated solution. As another poster noted algae is another potential source of biofuel. Solar, wind, and geothermal must also be a major component.

[donsu]

27. crops will continue to fail in the high heat - so corn may run out before

'08

[Xenotime]

28. You knew this was going to happen when * mentioned it...

as a source of alternative fuel.