ATimes--"Misunderestimating" Bush's Iraq (fear of Hezbollah model)

[Gloria]

More in the new World Media Watch up now at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical


1//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong Aug 19, 2006

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HH19Ak01.html



‘MISUNDERESTIMATING’ BUSH’S IRAQ

By Sami Moubayed
(Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.)





(SNIP)



Amid all these problems, there is the danger of the "Hezbollah model" being adopted in Iraq. Muqtada, who has been a nightmare for the Americans since they invaded, has all the credentials to create such an organization in Iraq, modeling himself after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Muqtada is young. He is well connected in the religious establishment, he hails from a prominent Shi'ite family and he has a large following among Iraqis. Like Nasrallah, he is opposed to both the US and Israel. Like Nasrallah, he is an Arab nationalist at heart who does not want to see Iraq divided. The only difference is that Muqtada wants to establish a theocracy in Iraq.

He lacks Nasrallah's charisma, however, and the flow of money and arms from Iran. If he pulls the right strings, though, and makes wise alliances, he could receive strong support from the mullahs of Tehran - something that the Americans wish to avoid at any cost.

If it happens, and Muqtada decides to end all restraint, he could immediately bring down the Maliki cabinet. Or he could withdraw his ministers from the government and replace them with non-entities, and transform the cabinet into a political dwarf unable to make any real decisions. In this event, what would govern the state of affairs under Muqtada would be the power of the sword on the Iraqi street.

SNIP

The Americans want to control his rapidly rising popularity. They see the bitter reality that now they have to deal with Lebanon's Hezbollah. They truly wish that it was not there, but have not been able to defeat it or destroy it, neither with United Nations resolutions, nor through domestic Lebanese dialogue, nor through the military might of the Israeli army.

And with Iraq in such civil strife, it could in all likelihood become a battleground for the entire Persian and Arab neighborhood. The Saudis would support the Sunnis. Iran - and Lebanon's Hezbollah - would support the Shi'ites.

The United States would be trapped in the middle. It would be unable to side with any one party against the other. Supporting the Sunnis would mean supporting former Ba'athists. Supporting the Shi'ites would mean allying with Iran. And the Kurds, with whom the US gets on, are not very strong anyway and do not represent large numbers in Iraq.

MORE

[Bobbieo]

1. Hezbollah model in Iraq

This is a very strong possibility. It doesn't get any better over there
does it? The Tangled Web syndrome!!!

[leftchick]

2. excellent article, thank you!

it proves that the neocons and their asshat** are truly delusional.

[ninkasi]

3. I am more afraid

of the lunacy of the Bush administration than I am of a terrorist. A terrorist might kill me, as unlikely as that is, but Bush can bring the world to a world war, because of his idiotic meddling. The thought of my own death is something I can tolerate, but not the destruction of whole countries.