Everybody seems to have forgotten what 2000 was actually like now that Smirk's approval ratings are in the toilet. Gore began the campaign 20 points behind, mostly because the right wing media machine was at it's height. The entire Clinton administration was viewed as the most corrupt administration in history. Campaign finance reform was a big issue because people were so disgusted. People who weren't outraged were completely turned off from politics.
Gore was still ten points behind when he picked his running mate.
And his choice was very well received. Back in the day, everybody loved Joe Lieberman. The press especially loved him. Picking Lieberman gave Gore the only uniformly positive press cycle Gore got during the campaign. Arianna Huffington, who now leads the anti-Lieberman crusade, used to be Lieberman's biggest booster. Back in the day, she called him the only Democrat with integrity.
There was a very active whisper campaign in the liberal areas of the country that Gore was a racist, a sexist and a homophobe. (For the record, all untrue.) Both the Nader campaign and major Nader boosters like Michael Moore repeated this charge often. Picking Bob Graham, or any other white, christian, male, would have given the left "proof" that their "Gore's a racist" and "Gore's a sexist" bs was true.
You can't underrate the negative impact of Bill Clinton on the 2000 election. Rove's stated strategy was "to make people see 'Clinton' when they hear 'Gore'". (Even in 2004, the Kerry campaign publicly fretted about how highlighting Clinton would loose them more votes than they gained with swing state moderates.)
There is one issue that we may never know about - - in 1992, one of the reasons that Clinton picked Gore was that Clinton was being attacked for his extra-martial affairs. He needed a running mate who was scandal free, or that running mate could cause him to loose the campaign. (If you don't believe personal scandals can stop a career, go talk to Gary Hart.) Given the intense press focus on Clinton's extra-marital affairs, it would have been uncharacteristic for Rove to refrain from investigating the private lives of the Dem ticket. And since there wasn't even a whisper campaign that either Gore or Lieberman had cheated on their wives, I have always thought that proved Lieberman was free from personal scandals. (Or the press loved him so much they didn't care about whatever personal scandals he might have had.) We do not know whether Bob Graham had any skeletons in his closet.
We do know the press was already ridiculing Graham as a nut case. As I said before, Gore was still 10 points behind when he picked his running mate. Picking one who was already being attacked by the press would have been the nail in the Gore 2000 campaign coffin.
Some actual poll numbers from the 2000 cycle:
http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/08/06/cnn.time.poll/index.htmlCNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
August 4-5
Likely Voters' Who Do You Think Will Win?
Now June
Bush 68% 55%
Gore 25 34
Sampling error: +/-4% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
August 4-5
Favorable Ratings
Former President Bush 73%
Hillary Clinton 45
Bill Clinton 42
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
August 4-5
How Clinton Has Handled His Job as President
Approve 57%
Disapprove 40
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
August 4-5
Whose Opinions Do You Respect More?
Former President Bush 61%
Bill Clinton 34
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
August 4-5
Who Would You Vote For?
Former President Bush 53%
Bill Clinton 42
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/08/13/cnn.poll/CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
August 11-12
Does Vice President Al Gore's ties with President Bill Clinton make you feel more favorably toward Gore or less favorably toward Gore, or do they have no effect on your view of him?
More favorable 7%
Less favorable 32
No effect 60
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
August 11-12
Please tell me whether you think Al Gore, if elected in November, would do a better job, about the same, or not as good a job as President Clinton in handling the job of president.
Economy Moral Leadership
Better 16% 58%
Worse 17 12
Same 60 27
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/08/11/cnn.poll/index.htmlCNN/TIME POLL
August 9-10
What is your opinion of Vice President Gore?
Yes No
Too close to Clinton 49% 45%
Strong leader 42 49
Someone you admire 40 56
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
August 9-10
Is Gore too close to President Clinton?
Now 1999
Yes 49% 55%
No 45 37
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
CNN/TIME POLL
August 9-10
As a presidential candidate, do you think Al Gore is more a candidate in his own right, that is based on his qualifications, or more a creation of Bill Clinton choosing him as vice president?
Creation of Clinton 45%
Based on his own
qualifications 42
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/08/21/cnn.poll/As you may know, the independent counsel in the Monica Lewinsky case is assembling a grand jury to decide whether or not to charge Bill Clinton with a crime once he leaves office. Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Al Gore in November?
More likely for Gore 22%
Less likely for Gore 23
No effect 53
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
Additionally, do you think Bill Clinton should or should not be charged in a court of law with a crime for these matters, after he leaves office?
Yes 41%
No 54
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
Do you feel further action against Clinton is needed?
Yes 30%
No 67
Sampling error: +/-3% pts
http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/08/07/cnn.poll/index.htmlCNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
August 7
Lieberman's Criticism of Bill Clinton
More favorable 26%
Less favorable 21
No difference 50
Sampling error: +/-4% pts