Novak: House Insiders Say Rs Bracing To Lose 26-30 Seats in Nov

[stopbush]

On C-Span at some gaggle of RW idiots doing a radio show.

Nofacts says the high number (30) comes from a "vote counter" in the House who is usually very
accurate.

[ThomWV]

1. Trying To Scare The "R" Base Into A Good Turnout

[MrModerate]

4. Possibly so, but . . .

Just as likely to dispirit them, particularly given the background noise lately.

[ThomWV]

One Can Only Hope nt

[stopbush]

13. Yes. Nofacts said R voters are very dispirited.

Dispirited people tend to stay home on election day, feeling they are powerless. The energized
are the ones who show, and this year, that's the Ds.

[NewJeffCT]

15. I hope that is right

but, i suspect Rove has a few more tricks up his sleeve - is gay marriage going to be on the ballot in any key states?

The Plan B flip-flop by the FDA must have hurt the fundies, I'm thinking.

[MrModerate]

17. Rove's powder is wet and his bag of tricks moldy . . .

Only Diebold can save them now.

[TheFarseer]

51. I know it's on the ballot in Tennessee

maybe elsewhere, I'm not sure. Ohio already did that in 2004. It probably saved bush.

oh crap, and Virginia

[orleans]

39. here's a plan: first we support 2 dems running for the house

(our own & at least one more) and then we adopt a senator.

see my post in gdpolitics: adopt a senator campaign :
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2796935#2797881

[TahitiNut]

21. I agree ... and lower the 'D' turnout.

I really get tired of all the Pollyanna-before and blame-shifting-after vomit I read every two years. It's like being in some sports bar. Except a sports bar is more rational. :puke:

[MrModerate]

2. If i'ts 30, where does that leave the House? n/t

[stopbush]

5. Dems need to pick up 15 seats to take back the House.

[MrModerate]

6. So here's the other shoe . . .

Any way to do that and then, without causing implosion, get rid of Pelosi for someone a bit more astute?

[Olney Blue]

7. Isn't a vote take by the House to elect their leader?

Not sure how this goes when a power shift occurs....

[stopbush]

9. Yes. Jack Murtha has indicated that he plans to announce for

the Majority Leader position when the Ds retake the House.

[AX10]

11. and Pelosi will be the Speaker!

[w4rma]

46. Not this close to an election. No. That shouldn't be handled until after

the elections when Democrats can focus on that rather than more important things. *Then* we can debate whether Pelosi or Murtha is best for the job.

[AX10]

10. A net gain of 30 seats for the Dems put it at:

D: 233
R: 202

Total: 435 (218 majority)

[serryjw]

28. Can we all collective

consciousness for 261? I know it's a dream but that gives us the 60% we need. Can anyone even remotely figure out how this is possible?

[bottomofthehill]

33. 60% does not mean anything in the House

The Rules Committee sets the debate rules, there is no cloture in the House. That said, we need as many seats as we can get

[serryjw]

43. Sorry, I was wrong

we need 64% to over turn * veto.....or 291!!!! I can dream.

[DemonFighterLives]

3. Oh Please Lord, let it be so

Diebold needs to be watched closely.
We could be turning the corner.
:dem:

[MissWaverly]

19. I hope we get both houses

I am not saying this to be vindictive, I have never seen such an abuse of power in my life than
what has passed for normal for the last 6 years. I hope we never see the Senator Bill Frist (R-TN), Rep. F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr. (R-WI), Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH), Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK)
or Sen. Ric Santorum (R-PA) to name a few of the Bush enablers, oh, and how could I forget the
(never get the info out on march to the Iraq War)-Sen. Pat Roberts from Kansas and (let's go to war with Iran) Peter Hoekstra (R-MI)

[DemonFighterLives]

38. That would be a great start in healing this nation

:dem:

[MissWaverly]

52. Yes, let's heal and move on

I, personally, hope that we hold our investigations, punish those at fault and move on. That we
compromise where needed but don't have this vitriolic name calling all the time. I hope that
the country can move ahead with dreams that are shared by all. I remember when Kennedy was
president, the people had hope, they talked about putting a man on the moon. There wasn't
all this nasty payback all the time. Look at how many people like Valerie Plame and Dan Rather
were punished for just doing their jobs.

[DemonFighterLives]

54. We have been dealing with lies and everything is phony

A little bit of truth and reality will be refreshing. Treason and AWOL truths will come forth. Imagine already what has been lost by these revisionists and purges.
Kennedy and Wellstone Forever! :dem:

[MissWaverly]

55. yes, now EPA is in closing libraries

This is one way to shut down criticism, seal off all information.

[AX10]

8. If there is little to no vote fraud and strong turnout, it could be up to.

a 35 seat gain for the Dems.

[originalpckelly]

12. Novak is like always full of shit.

That man is so full of it, I am surprised he doesn't have to wear boots.

[longship]

14. If Repukes are predicting 25...

...I've got to go with "upwards of fifty".

The last time there was a serious flip in the House was 1994 when Newt Gingrich's "Contract on America" in combination with the House banking scandal formed a perfect storm which resulted in a swing of 8 Senators and 52 House members.

Now we have elements of a storm of considerably more potential. Chimp and Iraq is the big issue, much, much bigger than the wimpy banking scandal. All indications are that we are in territory here which is totally unmapped.

If Novakula and his Repuke insider are now calling 25 or so in the House, I've got to think that they're really thinking 50 or more by November. They've got to be very, very afraid. And there's very little that they can do that wouldn't risk everything.

The only thing they have is "Stay the Course," "Don't Cut-N-Run," "Dems are soft on terrorism," etc. All of them are the same damned thing, "Stay the course." That's all they have to offer.

And if there's another terrorist attack? Well, I don't think I'd want to be the Chimp if that happened.

The tsunami is building. It's headed our way. The Repukes are going to reap the whirlwind.

(I apologize for the mixed metaphors.)

[stopbush]

23. The biggest problem for the RW spin machine? The facts on the ground.

It really doesn't matter if chimpy's poll numbers are up this week. He could hit 60% one week,
and the ugly truth of HIS war in Iraq will bring the numbers down.

They can try gay marriage, terra, whatever. The public stopped listening to bush months ago, and
everything that happens from this point on only reinforces the sour image they hold of him and
Rs in general.

If I was a D, I'd make hay out of the Bush Likes To Fart story. Why not tear away the faux dignity
of this embarrassment?

[longship]

31. I like this idea.

In reality, the Repukes have absolutely nothing to campaign on. Almost anything backfires on them.

Stay the Course? Ooops! That ain't gonna work.
Withdraw from Iraq? Oooops! What happened to "Don't Cut 'N Run"?
The Economy is getting better? Ooops!
The Repugs make you safer? Oooops!
The terrorists like the Dems? Oooops!

Almost anything they've been saying plays right back into the Democratic Party hand.

We're holding Big Slick and we've flopped "Ace-Ace-King". We're Aces-full-of-Kings and all we have to do is play the hand.

[C_U_L8R]

16. Beware of over-confidence

especially when the sources are repukes...

No rest until the new democratic majority is sworn in.

[Olney Blue]

22. We can't take anything for granted EVER AGAIN.

Good post.

[stopbush]

24. I don't believe we Ds were over confident in 2000 or 2004. I believe

we were robbed by the SCOTUS and Diebold shenanigans in Ohio and elsewhere.

Over confidence enters into the picture only if we trust the vote counters to be honest this time around.

I predict major R-initiated fights over many elections this fall.

[longship]

26. Yes, you are correct. But also beware of defeatism.

We can take fifty or more seats in the House and eight seats in the Senate.

We should be aiming for that very goal. The limit in the Senate is about eight. But fifty may be very achievable in the House. We should play our cards appropriately. We may very well achieve a real sweep.

We've been dealt "Big Slick" and the flop has come, "Ace-Ace-King". We can't afford to fold our hand.

[C_U_L8R]

34. Oh we're gonna win alright

we just need to keep a watchful eye
out for that evil republican mendacity

[Pab Sungenis]

47. Eight Senate seats?

Which eight are flippable? I count a net gain of six at best, and that's giving us Missouri, Tennessee, AND Virginia.

Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana are likely. Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia are outliers. Then factor in that we're probably going to lose Connecticut and MIGHT lose New Jersey, and we're stuck.

No way in hell are we going to flip Alabama, Texas, Utah, Indiana, Maine, or Colorado, and unlikely that we'd flip Nevada. I just don't see a net gain of eight seats. Five to give us control, maybe, but not eight.

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

48. Exactly. If it's an RW mouthpiece, I have no confidence in credibility.

Be careful of a set-up. MKJ

[BootinUp]

18. This report is to fire up the base.

It sounds inflated.

[longship]

30. How so?

In 1994 with a popular president in office, the Repukes siezed control with a sweep of 52 House seats and eight Senate seats. All they had was the "Contract on American" and the wimpy House banking scandal.

Are you saying that the Democrats, who hold all the cards right now cannot achieve a similar or even more sweeping result?

Realistically, eight Senators is about the max. Still, with the current perfect political storm, I think Dems can reach for the moon and get all eight along with more than fifty House seats.

But Dems have to actually play the hand to achieve that goal.

Novakula and his friend are saying 25 House seats because they are actually thinking more than fifty in November. They're deliberately low-balling it.

[BootinUp]

32. You don't think

its standard practice to scare the base into a higher turnout?

I am probably getting too old to be so optimistic.


maybe I have always been pessimistic.

I think we'll pick up less than 25 but more than 15.

[longship]

37. Well, about that higher turnout...

What they cannot afford is to turn out more people who will vote for the Dem.

There's a political rule about GOTV (Get Out The Vote). GOTV normally helps incumbency except for cycles like 1994, and 2006, when incumbency is a liability. In this case, it's not just incumbency, it's incumbent Repukes who are the target of the electorate's ire. No matter what the pundits spew, this election is all about Iraq and Bush. Almost anything the Repukes say works against them. More of the same is precisely what the electorate is rebelling against this cycle. So all the "Stay the Course" talk does nothing for them. All the political games are going to just drive more passion to rid the country of these guys.

Another terror attack would do wonders with the Repuke claim that they alone can keep us safe. Of course, we had Katrina just one year ago to remind us all how safe the Repukes keep us. To punctuate this, NOAA is predicting that the 2006 hurricane season is about to get mighty hot, mighty quickly. Two named storms just this week seems to indicate that NOAA was correct. Ernestine seems intent to head right towards the TX-LA border. It'll probably hit as a hurricane. What a horrible way to honor an anniversary.

No. If the Repukes do their GOTV game this year, it will bring out more Dem votes than Repuke votes. Just like in 1994 when the Dem party poured tons of effort into GOTV and we found that it actually lost us more races than it helped.

I'm going to stick with my prediction of upwards of fifty House seats and a majority in the Senate with a possible gain of eight. Nobody's saying it now, because they're afraid. But that's where things are headed.

But it won't happen if the Dems don't play their hand.

[bottomofthehill]

36. There was nothing popular about Bill Clinton in 94

He was a rather unpopular President at that time in his Presidency

[longship]

40. Approval of ~45%.

About low for both terms. At the time of the 1994 election his approval was already on the uptick.

But now, Bush is in the mid-thirties and is showing significant softness. He's ticked up a couple of weeks ago, but then subsequent polls show him dipping since. Furthermore, his recent words are doing absolutely nothing to stop the bleeding of support. "Stay the course" is all he knows. We all know what that will accomplish. Nothing.

The issue is that the Dems have an opportunity to do far more than take back the Congress. But they have to want it bad enough to go for the whole enchilada. After Labor Day, the games will begin.

[Generator]

20. And DU insiders predict an Osama on tape sighting by Halloween

But will another apperance of the crafty old terrorist be enough to stop the "Al Queda" Democrat party? Stay tuned.

[liberal N proud]

25. If they do, many Democrats could use the Prayers answered meme

[minnesota_liberal]

27. just like the deficit figures...

Overestimate and then try to spin anything more favorable into a victory.

[Rosco T.]

29. I hate to toot my own horn.. but this needs to be on every bumper ....

.. in the fricking country!



www.cafepress.com/democatic

that question alone is enough to worry the 'thugs...

[AlCzervik]

35. i watched that today on cspan, it was Paul Weyrich of the freecongess

forum, there was novakula, O'Beirne, Gizzo and John Fund. As much as i can't stand O'Beirne and Novak they were both cogent and realistic that the republicans will most likely lose the congress, the only one optimistic was Fund.

[bluestateguy]

41. Don't get complacent people

I've heard a lot of this chatter before the congressional elections, especially in 1996 and 2000, only to not see it materialize.

There are a lot of stupid, mean white people in this country.

[Prisoner_Number_Six]

42. A great many Rs are sick up and fed with all the shit going down

with their country. They may be dumb, but that doesn't mean they're stupid!

[moondust]

44. Novak is a bullhorn for Rove.

I wouldn't believe anything he says.

[K8-EEE]

45. Exactly.

Anything less than that will be a "victory for the values voter," since it was EXPECTED for them to lose a gazillion seats! Plus, they are trying to rev up the freeps. Everything he says is propaganda.

[PaDem]

49. I'm skeptical about all these doom and gloom predictions from.........

the GOP. It sure feels like they are setting us up for the big letdown, and setting up the GOP to "overcome the odds" on election night.

[lonestarnot]

50. Couldn't be they're counting on those optical votesnatchers...

[UTUSN]

53. I googled "Novak lose 40 seats" - he's been wrong before and before that

These two links are from wingnuts. I couldn't find links specific to past NOVAK predictions, although I remember his being wrong. The first link says BARONE was spot-on in 1994, when nobody else was close. The freepers in the 2nd link appear to be objective (I'm choking on my own words here).

To repeat, these links are from a Google search, NOT from MY frequenting wingnut sites.

*******QUOTE*******

http://www.hillnews.com/thehill/export/TheHill/Comment/DavidKeene/031406.html

This year, Barone is cautioning Republicans not to panic this early, pointing out that November is a long way off and that the 1994 trend wasn’t clear until much closer to Election Day. This, he says, gives Republicans a chance to avoid the disaster that struck the Democrats two decades ago.


http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1690043/posts

.... Novak's record has been mixed. He underestimated GOP strength in '94, saying they would gain 46 seats. That time I was glad he was wrong. But I remember way back to 1984 when he was on McLaughlin saying the Repubs would gain 22-25 in the coming Reagan landslide. They took only 14. Still, Novak was closer in his estimates than the other prognosticators were. So I don't reject his projection completely. It does sound a bit optimistic for the Dems though. ....

I have a folder on my computer entitled "Crow eaters" which I've kept since the 2000 election campaign. In it are stored predictions, polls, op-eds, etc., all forcasting doom and gloom for the GOP and Bush. Needless to say, they make for very amusing reading now. This article will now join that collection. ....

Aren't we scheduled to catch Bin Laden in late October? ....

Honestly, I think they were predicting a wash in 2002 or slight Democrat gains and the Democrats ended up losing several seats, largely due to redistricting. In 2004 they also predicted the status quo and that's what happened outside of Texas, with a few incumbents (Burns, Hill, Crane) knocked off for personal reasons or because the partisan pull of their district went too far in a Presidential year.

The Democrats often led in the generic poll earlier in the year, but not by as much as they have in some polls this year, although the last few polls have shown closer results. Polls before election day in 2002 showed Republicans leading in the generic poll in some cases.

So, 27-30 is definitely the outer edge of predictions right now, but they haven't predicted apocalypse for Republicans in the past like they are this year. ....

********UNQUOTE*******