Got to get Talent out !!! - Latest 2006 Projection

[Laura PourMeADrink]

If you believe this latest projection....


Senate

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GOP 51 -4
DEM 47 +3
IND 2 +1


Only "weak" GOP - Talent - and if we boot him, we'll have a virtual 50-50

All the details...
http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2006.html

[pinto]

1. You may have misread. Here's a cut 'n paste. Good point though to

muster support against Talent.

Senate Projections

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Current: 55 GOP, 44 DEM, 1 IND
Projected: 51 GOP, 47 DEM, 2 IND

DEM +3, GOP -4, IND +1

<snip>

Jim Talent (R)-inc vs Claire McCaskill (D) Weak GOP Hold

Missouri
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Latest News and Updates


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Sen: Rasmussen: Talent 46%, McCaskill 44% - 08/22/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak Dem Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 08/18/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Talent +11 (up 6) - 08/18/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: McCaskill 47%, Talent 46% - 08/16/06

Primary winners posted - 08/09/06
Sen: Rasmussen: McCaskill 45%, Talent 42% - 07/31/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Talent +5 (unchanged) - 07/26/06

Tracking initiated - 07/13/06


http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2006.html#senate

Claire McCaskill's website:

http://www.claireonline.com/

[Laura PourMeADrink]

2. Huh? Misread what? Talent is the only "weak hold"

listed. Therefore, the best shot we have. If they predict
51 GOP - we have to get that to at least 50 - He's the
one to aim at.

[pinto]

3. The overall current/projected numbers. We're at 44 now, with

an increase of 3, we'd be at 47. (Senate)

Talent's a great target, though. Polls show it real close.

[Ravy]

4. I think the two independents they have projected to win

will caucus with the Dems. However, we need 51 on our side since Cheney has the tie-breaking vote.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. Right. But at the very, very bare minimum if we beat Talent and

all things remain as predicted, we share chairmanships, right? The reason I call for him
as a target is because most of the others are somewhat safe.

You know what we need - the Abramoff scandal to explode and implicate!

[Lasher]

6. Actually, the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls are both dated 08/15/06

You can see here that the date of Rasmussen's most recent poll for the Missouri Senate was conducted on 08/15/06. They initially share results only with their paying premium members, and announce them to us poor folks a little later.

The date of the SurveyUSA poll is also 08/15/06, according to their website. Dates of the 2 polls are listed correctly here at Wikipedia.

I have been going by the latest poll in each race, regardless of the pollster, to see who's ahead. To be fair, Election Projection is more sophisticated than I, so they take more than that into account. But what am I to do with these 2 polls that were completed on the same day? I pick the SurveyUSA poll, of course! McCaskill is ahead, 47% to 46%. Go, McCaskill, yay!
:applause: