Latest Intellicast Hurricane Track ( Ernesto )

[JesterCS]

Dont like how this is shaping up. 115mph winds in the middle of the gulf, making a B-line for LA

[longship]

1. This isn't looking very good -- Here's NOAA 5-day projection

LA needs to button down again.
Ernesto is strengthening faster than projected earlier.
Its track is moving eastward, more towards NOLA.
Could turn into a dangerous storm????

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5+gif/090759W_sm.gif

[Balderdash]

2. OMG!

We're down here getting ready to "remember" Katrina. I hope that we have the fortitude to do this again. Thank you for posting this update.

[Chipper Chat]

3. Just talked to a high-ranking NASA official.

The shuttle launch may be either delayed or scrubbed.
I guess that old commercial is right: "It's not nice to fool Mother Natchuh."
(or in today's street language) "You dont f*** around with Mother Nature."

[DanCa]

4. My heart goes out to anyone t rapped in this storms path.

Stay safe and prepare people.

[iamjoy]

5. OMG...It Hasn't Hit The Gulf Yet

Some of us may remember Katrina was a Category 1 when it hit Florida and in one day strengthened into a Category 5.

So, Ernesto is already a Category 3 and it hasn't even hit the Gulf of Mexico?


:scared:

[geomon666]

7. Huh?

Where did you get category 3 from? It's not even a hurricane yet.

[malaise]

9. Ernesto is still a

Tropical Storm.

[HereSince1628]

6. WeatherUnderground's Jeff Masters is looking at the windshear

and thinking it may be enough to prevent development, he even raises the possibility of the shear being strong enough to break-up the storm tomorrow.

[Lochloosa]

8. I wouldn't let my guard down just yet

IN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/260845.shtml?

[HereSince1628]

12. I don't think anyone is arguing letting down their guard

Clearly the bull is about to walk into the China Shop

Forecasts this far away from landfall on the Gulf Coast are not going to have high reliability. I'm sure everyone is going to keep eye-balling this storm, and act accordingly as its track and strength become more certain.

[malaise]

10. That's what they said yesterday

and Ernesto is now 50mph. Weather Channel said gusts are now 60mph. Ernesto is better organized this morning. The good news is that at worst he'll be a Cat1 when he hits Jamaica.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_sat.html

[Aviation Pro]

11. Weatherunderground is a useless pay site....

...go to the source information at the National Hurricane Center. Here's the Ernesto discussion:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/260845.shtml?

[Jacobin]

13. I like this site, too

http://flhurricane.com/

some predictive models

[uppityperson]

17. "pay site"? I don't have to pay to use it. What do you mean please?

[Avalux]

20. I use it and don't pay.

I really enjoy reading Masters's blog; he knows his stuff.

[stepnw1f]

23. It's Free (nt)

[Aviation Pro]

24. It's a dot.com site....

...it isn't "free." It's supported by banner ads, it uses pop ups, and it takes the same information that you already paid for (the National Hurricane Center's info) and gussies it up with a "Broadcast Meteorologist" (don't get me started). Finally, fetus kisser Rick Santorum (R-Depths of Insanity) tried to pass a bill that would have shut off access to public government sites for these .com crocks of shit.

Therefore, it is a useless pay site to me.

[stepnw1f]

34. Thanks for the Explanation (nt)

[Strelnikov_]

14. Another Map O` Model Tracks

Looks like Ernesto is a man on a mission to get in the gulf. Lets hope he just throws up and passes out once he gets there.

[malaise]

16. Eliminate every model that has him

North of Jamaica. That won't happen.
sp.

[JesterCS]

15. UPDATED TRACK ( OMG =( )

[Strelnikov_]

18. Combine That Track With The Available Energy, It Does Not Look Good

Below is a map of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP). TCHP is basically the amount of energy in the water that is available to a tropical system. Technically it is the thermal energy above 26 degrees C in the surface layer, but for our purposes just consider it the amount of fuel available to support a hurricane.

Knowing that warm water expands provides a powerful tool in examining the surface of the ocean. By using radar altimeters aboard satellites, we can actually see an expansion of the ocean and higher sea levels where there are deep layers of warm water. One such deep layer is positioned just south of Louisiana at this time. Oceanographers call these features "warm core rings" and they are nothing more than warm parcels of water that break off of the Loop Current near the Florida Keys and drift northward towards Louisiana and eventually westward towards Texas. This particular warm core ring is extremely strong and would provide and incredible amount of energy to any hurricane that would pass over it. Warm core rings weaker than this one were responsible of the very rapid strengthening observed in hurricanes Opal, Katrina, and Rita among others. If Ernesto were to drift over this warm tongue of water with favorable atmospheric conditions, as are currently being forecast at that time, Ernesto could undergo a very rapid strengthening.

From: http://www.thestormtrack.com/2006/08/ernesto_likely_to_become_a_maj.html

[fishnfla]

29. This is the fact that holds the storms strength

gulf H2O temps

as for its direction,,,,,,

[Avalux]

19. There are other models - this isn't definite.

Here's the latest from Jeff Masters at Weather Underground. Apparently it's anybody's guess where it will go; will depend on a trough in the gulf:

"As Ernesto crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, a trough of low pressure will be swinging across the eastern U.S. and should pull the storm on a more northerly track. Most of the models are showing that this trough will be strong enough to bring the storm all the way to the coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, the trough may not be strong enough to do this, and Ernesto could get stuck in the Gulf for a week, potentially heading westwards towards Texas as a new ridge of high pressure builds in. A subsequent trough could then turn the storm northwards into the coast at some later time. The UKMET model and GFS model prefer this solution. At this point, there is not enough information to say which solution is most likely, and residents from Texas to the Florida Keys need to be prepared for this storm to affect them."

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=482&tstamp=200608

I don't want the thing to hit anywhere, but Texas could use the rain at least, minus the destruction. It's just too horrifying to think of NO being clobbered again.

[malaise]

21. Damn Ernesto moving North now

and strengethening. Now 60mph.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W_sm2+gif/204939W_sm.gif
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

[stepnw1f]

22. Hey Swamp Rat! Get Prepared Man...

you have been through enough as it is. Keep safe, bro!

[Aviation Pro]

25. This is from the National Data Buoy Center

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?station=42003&meas=wtmp&uom=E

This is the 5-day temperature plot from Station 42003 (E GULF 260 nm South of Panama City, FL). The position of the buoy is dead center of the predicted path of Ernesto. The 90F water temperature is indicative of a loop current that fuels a hurricane and creates an intense level of convective activity. Ivan, Dennis, Charley, Katrina, Wilma and Rita blossomed into Cat 5 storms after spending time in such a loop current and Ernesto will probably follow the same trend.

I am currently battening the hatches and making stores even though I am on the east coast of Florida. Hurricanes are famous for their unpredictable nature and preparedness is the key to successfully weathering one.

[BlueStorm]

26. No this does not look good... n/t

[JesterCS]

27. New Track as of 9PM EST

The main picture in this thread that I started auto updates. =D

So thats the latest track at all times

[proud patriot]

30. cool beans I din't know that

:-)

[Ignacio Upton]

28. Not this shit again

I bet part of that storm will hit NOLA if the prediction is correct. I just hope that this storm ends up as a dud. Also, if it is, I hope that Bush doesn't try to exploit the hurricane to make it look like he and FEMA have their act together and try to boost his job approval as a result.

[gulfcoastliberal]

31. Here in Pensacola, memories of Ivan & Dennis still fresh, people starting

to hoard gas & water already. I gave in and today bought 3 5 gallon tanks and filled them up as well as my car. I live in a bayfront condo that still looks like a bomb hit it (from Ivan) and am not going to stick around. Those projected paths look just like Ivans path. I stayed here during Ivan and thought this 13 story building of concrete was going to collapse. Storm surge destroyed the concrete seawall, concrete deck, pool, and the ground floor had 6-8 inches of water in it (I'm on the 8th floor). The roof ripped off - I live in an end unit next to the stairwell, which looked like Niagra Falls, so water came through the stairwell door and under my front door. Water hit the windows so fast and hard the only comparison is imagining a firehose hitting a window. The building swayed so much the water I filled the bathtub with sloshed around. The chandelier swung around like crazy. The noise was undescribable.

Needless to say, I learned my lesson. If this one follows Ivans path - we are driving to Memphis. And when I'm able to come back, I'm packing my crap up and driving back to California. I'm through with this nonsense. It's like knowing somewhere along the Gulf is going to suffer a nuclear blast every year - the only question is where and when. Fuck.

[JesterCS]

32. New Track

Has it going east of NOLA

[jerry611]

33. Models showing it going west of the predicted track

The rule of thumb with hurricane forecasting is that the safest place to be is where the storm is predicted to be 3 days out. It never goes where it is forecasted 5 days out.

The way the atmosphere is right now, the storm has a better chance of going west of the forecasted track than going east of it.

New Orleans is far from being out of the woods here. And according the cheif of the Army Corp of Engineers, the leevees cannot withstand another major hurricane. Which means the city could be flooded again.