What could stop Iran War short of mutiny of CIA and/or Pentagon?

[yurbud]

The Bushies want the war so bad they can taste it, and the evidence seems to be that the Lebanon War was meant to clean out Hezbollah so they couldn't respond when we attack Iran.

The Bushies are still sticking with their fake crisis about nukes in Iran, and trying to browbeat others into pretending like it's a problem.

There seem to be only some variables still in play: how soon? Will the fake nuke tizzy be used as excuse or another epic terrorist attack?

The range of possibilities there are pretty well mapped out.

The question that remains more open is what, if anything, could prevent the war. Our absolute last line of defense is that people in the Pentagon will not carry out orders that will likely lead to an unnecessary World War and the deaths of hundreds of millions.

Short of that, could anything prevent the war? If the wealthy found out Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket were in the sights of a Chinese or Russian nuke, would they tell W to cool his jets?

I can't think of any kind of protest that the Bushies wouldn't ignore or use as an excuse to round people up.

Any other ideas?

[HereSince1628]

1. A democratic Congress. n/t

[yurbud]

6. I'd give that about 50/50 chances of doing the trick--maybe less.

Still enough pro-war corporate Dems to push it over the top.

[HereSince1628]

18. Yes, but it's much more likely then a Pentagon Mutiny.

I don't think that is likely to happen.

[yurbud]

28. they aren't robots

[yurbud]

50. the last couple years, more criticism has leaked out of Pentagon than Dems

[wiggs]

24. I haven't heard existing dc dems say much on the issue of Iran

in terms of: making sure that the WH comes to congress for vote before taking action; demanding an NIE; ensuring full congressional participation in ensuring intelligence is accurate; rallying the people against a potentially disastrous course of action; demanding a change in personel that bungled Iraq and Afghanistan before embarking on another misadventure; correcting misleading WH statements about Iran; getting to the bottom of what Iran really is and wants (not at all the public perception).

Both sides of the congressional aisles have been passive and complicit -- again -- in the face of a monumental decision in front of us.

Dems don't need to be in power to make themselves heard. They are smart and have all kinds of exposure and options in order to make any kind of statement they want.

[yurbud]

29. and they aint doing it

[Demeter]

2. A Total Lack of Boots on the Ground?

The governors all (bless them) told his Imperial idiocy to take a flying leap and keep his blood-stained hands off the rest of the National Guard.

[havocmom]

5. Air Force worries me. Too many fundies in high ranks

and for years, they have allowed for fundie pressure on cadets in their academy. They can start a lot of trouble from 50,000 feet up. No worries, they don't have to deal with the local populations. That's someone else's problem once the AF starts the fight.

When does Iran open their oil bourse, with trading done in Euros? THAT's the real threat the neocons are in a snit about. All of Big Oil's dollars are about to mean little in the world.

[yurbud]

9. that Air Force Academy scam is an attempt to politicize military

make it like Saddam's Republican Gaurd--only REAL Republicans.

[havocmom]

11. Recall those 'prayer pledge cards' issued to troops in Iraq

shortly after the invasion? They handed out cards for troops to fill out if they pledged to 'pray for the pResident'. Where do you suppose THOSE were sent and stored?

Yep, Republican Guard for sure.

[yurbud]

27. really start worrying when they put on the flying monkey uniform (PIC)

like Bush.

[Strelnikov_]

41. This Worries Me Also. We Have Armageddon Cult Members With Direct

access to the 'big one'.

I wonder how many Gen. Ripper's there actually are . . .

[yurbud]

7. As Sy Hersh's article confirmed, they are going to try airpower

and someone else noticed that most of Iran's oil fields are tantalizingly close to the border with Iraq.

[Strelnikov_]

42. Simple Map Showing Iran's Oil Fields (CIA 2004)

The second map seems to be from a tin-foil site. But it illustrates how having legions in Iraq leverages influence over most of the world's remaining oil reserves. In other words, if I were a President wanting to control most of the worlds oil, the first place I would invade would be Iraq.



"More than 70% of the total world oil supply is in the Oil Corridor (shaded area)."

[Greeby]

3. I think that mutiny may be forthcoming

Judging by Sy Hersh's New Yorker articles

[McCamy Taylor]

4. I think it will be a passive/aggressive mutiny. "Aint got no troops."

[yurbud]

8. I don't think that will do it.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

10. I'd rather risk war than a military or CIA takeover.

THAT would really be the end of the last shreds of democracy and freedom in this country.

[shadowknows69]

13. Not if the military abides by the Constitution and reinstate it

as the law of the land. It hasn't been, not really, for quite some time now. As far as war with Iran. I'm completely convinced it's inevitable now and I'm also completely convinced that there won't be a military mutiny unless it comes from Colonels on up.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

16. Taking over the government by either IS unconstitutional.

The "colonels" took over in Argentina to "save" it as Pinochet did in Chile and Franco did in Spain.

As lousy as our oligarchy posing as a democracy is, it's a helluva lot better than having the military running things.

[shadowknows69]

25. I think the military is pretty much running things

we certainly can't stop the wars they're in.

[otherlander]

49. Elites going for each others' blood

have no reason to help us.

[readmoreoften]

12. I think about this around once an hour. These are my thoughts:

We all know what is going to happen. All our discussions are consolidating into one great big theme: we are living in a fascist state. This month it's been hard for me to talk about democratic politics beyond this theme. I'm a labor and a gay rights activist, but it all means nothing if we're living in a state of fascism.

I don't think that we can stop an attack on Iran or the terrorist attack that is going to justify it. But we need to prepare for the future. Pro-regime Republicans are a minority now. They shouldn't be winning elections. If they do win '06, we MUST ACCEPT that our elections are fraudulent.

Here are my suggestions:

(1) We need to face the reality that we live in a fascist state. That means that we have to stop acting as if we DON'T live in a fascist state. In other words, we have to stop giving the regime the benefit of the doubt: They will steal elections. They will embezzle our taxes. They will do whatever they can get away with to retain power: terrorist attacks, hate propaganda, war, spying, gulags. They are not just mean conservative ideologues. They are fascists.


(2) We need to make regime change the number one priority of the collective. This doesn't mean that we can't work on issues like gay rights, environmental security, education, abortion, or labor issues. This doesn't mean that we can't work on refining the agenda of the Democratic party. This means that we have to accept that there can be no *substantive* progress for gay rights, the environment, education, abortion, or labor issues until the regime is overturned and we no longer live in a fascist nation. While the Democratic party should always work on its platform, without election reform a platform that even 75% of voters agree on will be pointless because it will be stolen. The Democratic party has to become a party of resistance or it will become obsolete.


(3) Since regime change must be the number one priority, we need to build bridges with traditional enemies. There must be a national committee for bi-partisan election reform that includes paleoconservatives. Right now I feel like we're in the middle of a hockey game, the paleoconservatives and authentic Republicans are on the opposing team. The Bush Regime are the umpires who have turned both teams' locker rooms into gulags. Both teams need to rise up and push the Regime out of the rink. Then later we can go back to wacking each other with hockey sticks. We are going to have to touch the untouchables. That doesn't mean that we have to *entertain or placate* our enemies. We don't need to change our progressive positions to work together against fascism. For example, John Murtha is staunchly anti-abortion Democrat, yet the majority of us champion him in the fight against the war. It doesn't mean that we stopped fighting for abortion because we're joining hands with Murtha on this issue. Similarly, if traditional paleoconservatives who are anti-abortion, anti-gay, and anti-labor still want REAL ELECTIONS, then lets set aside our very important differences so that we can, once again, have a real democracy.

(4)There is no middle way between fascism and democracy The so-called moderates and the so-called progressives of our party need to reach an understanding. Many people who call themselves "moderates" seem to prefer moderation in tone rather than substance. They like the idea of "balance" and "non-extremism" and these voices of moderation are important to our party. However, there is no third way between fascism and democracy. There is no way to gently reform a fascist state from the inside. Just like there is no nice way to tell a patient that he is dying. We need moderate democrats to help us put an end to the regime. If we can join hands with our natural political enemies to put a stop to the regime, we can most certainly join hands with our own family.

(5)We must accept that we are no better than people in other nations who have had to fight against corrupt regimes. And that means that, if this truly proves itself to be a fascist regime, some of us might be imprisoned and some of us might die fighting against it. That's not "radical extreme paranoia", it's just life. Why should we be better than the millions of people who have come before us and who have come after us? Human beings have always had to fight against tyranny. It's time for us to grow up.

[shadowknows69]

14. That's laying it on the table

great post readmoreoften and truths we all need to face, you are spot on there. Whether the worst comes to pass or not we need to be ready. No more easy ride, time to stand or hide.

[Selatius]

15. Trust me; do not depend on the military leadership to stop Bush

For every general that mutinies against Bush, there will be another who will defend Bush. You do not want brother against brother. It's not a fight you want right now or ever if you can avoid it.

It's a recipe for a potential civil war between loyalist and rebel troops.

[readmoreoften]

17. I agree there will not be a mutiny. That is the stuff of fantasy.

The revolution will not begin with the military, for the love of god. They will be silenced and obedient shills will be put in their places. There's still too much cognitive dissonance.

[Demeter]

19. I'm Hoping the GOP Tears Itself Apart Before We Get That Far

and in the confusion, enough strong-minded Real Democrats get into Congress and keep the turmoil going, start the investigations, and lead the purge. It would have the advantage of avoiding civil war AND military coup, our only other options.

And as for the Air Force, there's only so much one can do with bombers--and if they do it at home in a final act of desperation, the game is over for them.

The difficulty is pleading for mercy of other nations, if Bush lets it go so far as we are at their mercy. And knowing him, he will.

[readmoreoften]

20. Before we get that far? Hell, it looks like Iran may be hit in months.

Maybe even weeks. The GOP is not weak in any way. Certainly the PNAC is not weak! Yes, they are losing popularity, but we don't have elections anymore so that doesn't matter so much. Are all these disgruntled Republicans going to rise up in the streets if the elections are stolen again? Hardly in their nature.

The PNACs plan is going forward.

[sweetheart]

21. The fall of tony blair

and a new shrewd and distant british administration.

[TexasLawyer]

22. One important bit of activism

Write to your Senators and Reps and demand that any new wars be handled according to the US Constitution. The President cannot declare war unilaterally. That power belongs to Congress. Also the power to spend resides with Congress. Any new war, where this country has not been attacked, must be preceded by a national debate and the consent of Congress.

April 21, 2006
Attack Iran, Ignore the Constitution

Jeremy Brecher & Brendan Smith
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060508/attack_iran

[Disturbed]

23. An attack on any nation by the US can occur without

any approval from Congress. For a period of 3 months the US Govt can attack another nation under certain rationale. After that the Congress must approve further action. By that time it would be late in that game to call off the action.

Only China and Russia can stop the US Regime &/or Israeli Regime from bombing Iran.

[ThomWV]

26. Absolutly Massive Protests Everywhere

Surround the Whitehouse and do not leave. Stop the country, strike, sitdown, boycotte, everything all at once. Bring the nation to a standstill.

[shadowknows69]

31. They'll start shooting us if we do that

Kent state would look like a day at the beach. Not saying it shouldn't happen but that may be what we could expect.

[readmoreoften]

32. There will not be a general strike in the US. Forget it.

There will be no strikes, boycotts, or extended protesting. I've been on strike for almost a year. You can't even get liberals to strike and risk their job security anymore. The moderates and conservatives will scab us out in a heartbeat. And protests will stop when they put us in jail. Or else they'll just keep our "free speech zones" half a city away where they don't matter. Or they'll infilitrate, bring in operatives and start shooting, then pin the blame on us.

We need to get politically savvy and fast. Don't ask me how, I have no idea.

[PresidentWar]

30. Not gonna happen

Here's why.

We don't have the troops.

We don't have the materiale.

We don't have the public support.

We dno't have the international support.

That pretty much puts the shitter on that idea, I think. Also, go ask your local Jane's Defense enthusiast, or even a student of history, how easy it is to invade and hold a mountainous area.

[yurbud]

33. Bushies probably think they have one of two ways of changing support:

1) Provoke Iran to attack first or at least count on American outrage if they counter-attack.

2) Terrorist attack that will be blamed on Iran.

I don't know that either of those are sure-fire winners, but I can see why Karl Rove and Cheney might think they are.

[PresidentWar]

36. They have the nuttiness - just not the stuff!

That's my point. There is surely enough psychosis in that gaggle of neonazis to want to make war on the world - but they can't without the material stuff like troops, the money and the toys. They've blown their wad badly on that score, thanks to the Iraq farce.

[yurbud]

38. they think public opinion will catch up with the war and give them

carte blanche to spend for the materials and draft the soldiers they need.

I don't think it would be a good idea, but their plans and actions point in that direction.

Iran's nuclear program is not a threat to us by any stretch of the imagination.

[PresidentWar]

44. I guess I'm not being clear.

They dont....have....the stuff.

You can't start a war without the stuff, no matter how psychotic your aims are. Playing air guitar doesn't make you Jimmy Page.

[yurbud]

47. ironically, a terrorist attack is the best analogy. Would a terrorist

attack on the United States bring us to our knees? No. Would someone do it anyway? Maybe.

Also, remember this is the crew that makes up their own reality. Some of my students work in the defense industry, and they have gearing up production just as they did before the Iraq War and 9/11.

These Bush people are so out there, they leaked it a while back that they think we can win a nuclear exchange with the Russians and Chinese.

While we could possibly come out of such an exchange the "winner" graded on a curve, it wouldn't be pleasant here. The same goes with this Iran War. They are only thinking about whether they can get their hands on those oil fields, and if the rest of us have to be killed in nuclear or terrorist attacks to do that, they don't care.

[Imagevision]

34. Israel is running it's mouth off that they'll go it alone, sounds like

Bush's rant about going into Iraq without Tony and his brit's...

[sweetheart]

35. Your gift of free will can end the war

And any one of us is free at any time to put all violence, conflict and war down
forever and never touch it again. The war is jihad, the conflict of liberation when
ignorance comes to light and is dispelled. When the war comes home as the tyranny
of esoteric news objects who bully planetwide with gunboats and thuggish political
agitators... and still, it is our free will to put that all down, and for once
accepting that we don't know shit, and that war, or peace is just our minds impressing
upon this unformed moment the need for their continued existance, oh, yea, to end
the wars, yet how could it be enlightenment it it was not all things, war too.

[Marie26]

37. Israel's failure in Lebanon

It seems like the neocons viewed Israel's offensive as some sort of twisted test run for an attack against Iran. That's why Bush wouldn't ask for a ceasefire - Pentagon helped plan the offensive, & shipped new powerful US bombs to Israel to see how they'd work. I think the neocons were hoping that airpower alone would overwhelm Hizbollah & cause the Shiites to rise up against the militia :eyes:. Then they could point to Israel's success when selling an air offensive against Iran. Except Israel's attack failed miserably, like everything the neocons have touched. Air power alone did not stop Hizbollah, or even weaken its ability to attack, & Israel was eventually forced to send in ground troops & suffer heavy casualties. Now the neocons are glum & defeated. They've not only lost a positive example to sell the Iran War, they've also created a nightmare scenario that war critics can point out instead. There's really no way to persuade reasonable people now that Air Force strikes alone will work against Iran. I think (hope) they've lost their chance on this.

[yurbud]

39. Lebanon was critical to Iran War in another way--neutralize Hez response

before we attack Iran.

Since they failed, it's not hard to imagine Hezbollah getting creative to counter-attack if he hit Iran.

[Marie26]

40. Right

And they failed in that too, so if Bushco. does strike Iran, Hiz. is ready & able to launch a counterstrike against Israel. It seems like this is part of the reason Iran was funding Hiz. in the first place - an armed militia on Israel's border is a pretty effective deterrent. So Israel & Bushco know that an Iranian strike will create attacks against Israel. Israel will be against an Iranian strike, & Bushco know attacking will endanger an important ally. It makes it that much harder for the neocons to launch their (already insane) plans for a war against Iran.

[PresidentWar]

45. I believe much of the rest of the planet has a different take

on the Hezbullah/Israel dust up. Far from being "neutralized", Hezbullah shocked everyone by giving the IDF a right bloody nose. On the day before the ceasefire kicked in, Hezbullah rained a couple hundred rockets down on Israel. I don't call that "neutralized". Hezbullah also has been discovered to have advanced anti-tank weaponry, guidance systems and drone aircraft. THAT doesnt sound neutralized, either. Israel withdrew, and Hezbullah came out of it with more fans in the Arab world than they had before.

In order to look at this in a helpful way, let's not be blind as to what actually happened.

[yurbud]

46. I didn't make myself clear--that was GOAL not end result.

[savemefromdumbya]

43. Someone needs to spread a rumor about a draft and girls have to fight too?

[yurbud]

48. I already tell my students there will be a draft for the Iran War

because it's true.

[BeHereNow]

51. Only they are now calling it- "Universal Service."

The legislation has already hit the floor.
Mandatory 2 year service for all boys and girls.
Civilian and military.
I THINK it is either HR135 or 134.

BHN

[yurbud]

54. the Charlie Rangel bill?

[Rex]

52. Someone who gives a fuck.

And that's what is so sad. Not a lot, just someone who cares. :cry:

[mmonk]

53. A fourth estate