Now looking like Ernesto may land around the Everglades area.

[madfloridian]

Local news a few minutes showed that is what they expect. Haven't checked Noaa, locals nearly all agree.

[Swamp Rat]

1. Hopefully TS Ernesto will weaken even more

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5_sm2+gif/060152W_sm.gif

[skids]

2. I dunno. They say that but...

...my gut says it's going to move even more northerly still.

[Solo_in_MD]

3. Hope not

Im headed to Orlando on Monday for a week long business trip

[Swamp Rat]

4. You might consider cancelling that trip

:shrug:

[Solo_in_MD]

5. No choice

major trade show...

[Swamp Rat]

6. Well, hopefully it will be just a thunderstorm by the time it reaches

Orlando. Stay safe! :hi:

[nosillies]

12. Looks like you'll have a Cat 1 to deal with

Watch Channel 2, WESH, while you're here, they seem to have the most accurate predictions.

[Selatius]

7. I don't fucking trust these changing predictions.

A few days ago they suggested it would enter the Gulf of Mexico, but now they have it hitting Florida.

When Katrina first hit the Gulf, the early projections had Katrina swinging northward and slamming the Florida panhandle. No, it stayed on its westerly course totally defying the original predictions and instead struck NOLA/Mississippi coast. Its true landfall was literally hundreds of miles from the original projections.

Every few hours the long-range projections kept changing. If they cannot fucking predict where a storm will be four days from now, then it's best not to report out further than two days and spare people a lot of tension. The reason many NOLA residents stayed are many, and one of them was that they thought it would strike further east than it really did.

[skids]

8. GFDL seems to be zoning in on it.

I think the predictions, especially GFDL, will be better for the rest of this storm -- they were all having trouble at first but the system seems more regular now and GFDL even got the little northward jig over land right.

[malaise]

10. Bingo

On Thursday, Friday and Saturday all models had the storm heading for Jamaica from the South coast and through the island. We were told to expect heavy winds and 4-8" of heavy rain. By Saturday evening, it was clearly heading North of Jamaica. Well there was some non-threatening rain on the North-East coast last night, but not one drop of rain fell anywhere else. Even the usually accurate local Met office got this wrong.

Sadly, just like the terra threats, these lousy forecasts have real costs to many people and institutions. Most of us would lose our jobs for such poor work.

I prefer to be safe than sorry but when I woke up yesterday morning and looked at the system breaking apart, I was more than surprised that it was upgraded to a hurricane. I know storm tracks move, but I am now at the stage of wondering about the politics of hurricane forecasts.

[ima_sinnic]

9. Haiti took a direct hit

those poor people suffer so much already and have nothing; my thoughts are with them as they pick up the pieces today. Does anyone know how severe it was there?

[nosillies]

11. There has been one reported death, but I think in Cuba

[nosillies]

13. Actually, it was in Haiti