Is anyone worried about how falling oil prices will impact the election?

[Ignacio Upton]

While I'm glad that oil prices are falling below $70 and with predictions that they could fall further in October and November, I'm concerned that this could help Bush. While oil prices aren't the only reason for why his popularity is so low, they are a major reason. I remember last winter his popularity went back up into the low-mid 40's from the upper 30's (Katrina aftermath) in the fall partyly because oil prices were declining at the time. Now, I would say that oil prices need to drop into roughly the low $2.00 range in order for this be truely neutralized as a problem for the GOP, but it is possible that, given enough spin and hype, they could drop in time for Election Day. As I see it, I would rather have the drop in oil prices happen later rather than now, because either way, the drop will be short-term, as demand from India and China (and tension in the Middle East in Iraq and Iran) will still cause friction in the long run. I just don't want such a short-term drop to act as a "get out of jail free" card for the GOP on Election Day.

[Warpy]

1. They'd have an effect if they fell back to the $1.79 range

that was around when Stupid took office, but I don't think the oil companies are prepared to take that big a hit and I sincerely doubt a majority would fall for it. People know high gas prices are here to stay and most of them even have an inkling why.

Remember, 60% of us aren't nearly as dumb as we look.

[Ignacio Upton]

6. I don't think they need to fall back that far

Adjusted for inflation, our current oil price high still isn't even enough to top the 1980 high. I think that voters, unfortunately, will settle for gas around $2.20.

[Stargazer99]

2. If the Republicans win the next election-watch the gas prices go up

The sheeple never learn and the cons know it.

[RB TexLa]

3. A little more worried about how they impact my royalty checks

[demosincebirth]

4. They are falling for a reason.

Oil companies are paying Bush back for all of the huge profits in the last two years. Notice, the election is not too far away. You connect the dots.

[liberal N proud]

5. That would require price manipulation

That wouldn't happen... :sarcasm:

BP hit by new market-rigging probe
By David Litterick in New York

(Filed: 30/08/2006)

<snip>
BP, which is already embroiled in regulatory investigations over alleged price fixing in the propane market, is now the subject of an inquiry into possible manipulation of the over-the-counter oil market in 2003 and 2004.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is understood to have subpoenaed BP as part of an investigation into whether the company used information about its own pipeline and storage facilities to influence market prices.

An increasing amount of oil futures speculating is carried out on over-the-counter markets, which take place outside of traditional exchanges and are largely unregulated, sparking calls from a number of politicians for better oversight.


<snip>
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/08/30/cnbp30.xml

[gatorboy]

7. $70 is considered good?

I remember the barrel price during Clinton's last term being in the mid $30 range and the Republicans had a hissy fit...

[Ignacio Upton]

9. Have you ever read 1984?

And how Oceana cut chocolate rations, and then raised them again, but not as high as they were before the cut? Oil prices are like the chocolate rations. People, from an emotional perspective, will be willing to embrace Bush again if oil prices fall to their 2004-early 2005 levels, even if back then they were complaining about those prices to begin with. Why is this? Because people's expectations are so diminished and they don't believe that they will see $1.70 again, so $2.20 will be good enough for them as a result.

[yorkiemommie1]

13. was just telling dh that yesterday

and i fear the manipulation will work.

[BurtWorm]

8. Not at all.

Just because I'm going to suddenly forget every other issue and vote straight Republican doesn't mean everyone else will.

;)

[Ignacio Upton]

11. Oil prices aren't the only issue

But sadly, a lot of voters base their decisions on it. If it weren't for oil prices, and to a lsser extent problems with real wages, then I don't think that the majority of the public would be disapproving of the economy as much (even though Bush has set us up for a pretty big fall in the long term.)

[GreenTea]

10. Whoever didn't know this was coming must be the least perceptive

person on the face of the earth?

So that leads to my next question...Were the Dem's ready for this?

[Ignacio Upton]

12. Most Dems on this board have the insight to realize this

But the general, apolitical public doesn't.

[GreenTea]

24. Dude, that's a given...non political people don't know shit!!!

When I say Dem's, I'm speaking about our wonderful "leaders" our Dem politicians, the ones who are always so fucking easily surprised by the repugs obvious strategy,, and didn't see "it" coming...the ones the republicans continue to fool...Get it?

This is an easy one to enlightened apolitical people...prices going down because it's election time, republicans need the votes to hold their majority and watch the prices start creeping back up in December with some new hidden crisis, yet to be defined...but it's out there just waiting to use as an excuse to bring prices back over three buck a gallon....which the oil companies have gotten very use to, and comfortable with.

Right now they are just trying to help out their best old buddy Bush...who gives them everything they've ever wanted!!!!

[mike_c]

14. I don't believe it will help him at all....

The damage is done when gas prices rise to unprecedented levels. There is significant latency in the undoing-- it essentially requires that people forget about their dismay at the higher prices. That takes time, and wouldn't likely have a POSITIVE effect in any event. If enough time passes with gas prices at moderate levels people will simply lose track of that as an issue.

[Ignacio Upton]

16. There might be "enough time" by November

Gas prices are already falling to the $2.60's in some areas, even though they were up at above $3.00 just a month ago! We still that more than two months before Election Day, and assuming that prices continue falling, that will be enough of a time period for voters to gauge the change.

[MADem]

15. How often can he stick a cattle prod up our asses, shock us, and

then turn down the power...

I'm not buying it. Even if the pain is less, people have to be IDIOTS not to realize that EVERYTHING costs more, and wages are not keeping up with inflation.

[Ignacio Upton]

17. Well, you're talking about a populace that

Considers John Mark Carr to be as important or more so than what's going on in Iraq, NOLA, or illegal wiretapping. As long as people have missing white girls and American Idol to keep them company, they won't think for a second about the shit going on around them.

[jdlh8894]

18. Wages NEVER have kept up w/infation n/t

[Ignacio Upton]

19. He's probably thinking of how real wages are down

From a couple of years ago. The minimum wage, as result of not being raised in nearly ten years, is at its lowest level of purchasing power since the end of the WWII! People are having to work more jobs and more hours just to eek out a middle class lifestyle that a few years ago, was more within reach while doing less work. People are working harder but making less, even if the overall economy is doing okay.

[woodsprite]

20. Our prices in Newark, DE fell $.20 overnight.

Made hubby go "Wow" this morning when we drove past. I just said "Watch'em after the elections. It's only temporary." I bet him a quarter. Let's see if I'm right ;)

[WI_DEM]

21. I am. since I honestly think that high energy costs have hurt Bush

and the GOP more than Iraq with the average voter.

[Ignacio Upton]

22. And that pisses me off

Because while oil prices are subject to manipulation from oil companies and speculators, it's impossible NOT to factor increased international demand (India and China especially) into the equation. I think Bush deserves part of the blame for oil prices, but they would still be going up even if Gore or Kerry were President, just not as much. I'm much more angry at Bush over Iraq, Katrina, Social Security, NSA wiretapping, and the Culture of Corruption, than I am over oil prices.

[NMDemDist2]

23. when do oil companies report profits? if we see another round of

record profits for them a week (or a day) b4 the election I don't think it will help them