Chaffee way behind in R.I. primary poll

[Dr.Phool]

I guess it doesn't pay to be a moderate Republican.

http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2006/aug/31/ri_sen_poll_laffey_crushing_chafee_in_primary

RI-SEN: Poll: Laffey Crushing Chafee In Primary
By Greg Sargent | bio

A new poll out from Rhode Island College shows that conservative challenger Steve Laffey is crushing incumbent GOP Senator Lincoln Chaffee by 17 points -- 51%-34%. Fifteen percent are undecided -- that is, less are undecided than the point spread. Chafee really is on course to losing this thing.



(comments from TPM)
This poll is great news. A Laffey win turns Whitehouse into the heavy favorite for November. If Linc goes down all Whitehouse has to do is drift a bit towards the center between the primary and November to ensure those moderates don't give Laffey a second look.

OTOH If Chaffee wins, Whitehouse is in a genuine dogfight to see who can get 51% of the votes. It would siphon off resources that could go to other races that desperately need a boost (like Talent/McCaskill, or Kean/Menendez)

[Greeby]

1. So long Chafee

Never mind, you can always run as an "independent Republican" ;)

[Renew Deal]

2. Woo hoo!!

Maybe? It's too bad for Chaffey if he loses. He could have been a good Democrat.

[SteppingRazor]

7. Not as good a Democrat as Whitehouse, though...

so the hell with'em! :)

[Renew Deal]

12. Right

:thumbsup:

[ginnyinWI]

21. in the debate between him and Laffey,

which I saw on the Span, he really sounded like a Democrat.

[yellowcanine]

3. What if Chaffee loses the primary and pulls a Lieberman?

[Hippo_Tron]

33. It will divide the GOP vote and Whitehouse will win

Whitehouse is already leading Chaffee within the margin of error. If Laffey gets the nomination, then Chafee will lose a lot of his GOP support the same way that Lieberman lost a lot of his Democratic support.

Chafee would have to pick up almost all of the undecided vote if Laffey were to win the primary and he were to run independently. And maybe if Chafee does run as an Independent, which party will he caucus with?

[grizmaster]

42. different state different rules

I believe the only way left for Chafee to continue would be to become a write-in candidate.

[opihimoimoi]

4. BTW Where is the 8% Carl Sheeler?? He has been afflicted with

The Silence of the Lambs??

[Ignacio Upton]

44. Well, considering that he's only polling 8%

He's gonna be treated as a minor candidate as a result. Hell, Tasini is polling better than that against Hillary in New York!

[longship]

5. So long Chafee; Hello Whitehouse.

Laffey is a loon.
I think that Whitehouse beats Laffey easily in November.

[bdamomma]

25. that is great news

Chafee on his way out, anyone who has an (R) is going to learn the hard way. It would be great to get two Dems for RI in the Senate, I really admire Jack Reed.

[Hippo_Tron]

6. Senator Whitehouse sounds kinda funny, but pretty good

[Hardrada]

23. True but I wish it were Senator Whitehorse

as in: "A High Whitehorse souse has revealed that...."

Old radio blooper.

[bdamomma]

26. It's Whitehouse not Whitehorse!

[rpannier]

29. He could run for President

President Whitehouse speaking in front of the White House...

[Hippo_Tron]

32. That would never get old

Unfortunately, a President from Rhode Island seems somewhat unlikely at the moment.

[grizmaster]

43. don't underestimate us little guys

Little Rhody has a fighting tradition. We were the first to commit an act of war against England and the last to sign the Constitution. :evilgrin:

[Hippo_Tron]

51. Rogue Island as they called you back then...

[Tiggeroshii]

8. When is the primary? n/t

[bdamomma]

27. September 12th

[ComerPerro]

9. I really hope Missiour voters don't make the same stupid mistake

they made two years ago, in choosing a stupid fasicst jerkoff over McCaskill.

She should be governor.

[SteppingRazor]

10. I have a hard time believing that this poll isn't skewed somehow...

Chaffee has been beating Laffey by double digits in every other poll I've seen

[civildisoBDence]

19. They polled 360+ voters

so the margin of error is relatively high. Here's a link to the poll:

Rhode Island College

btw, would that be Peter Tosh's "Steppin' Razor"?

News and commentary, left to right

[SteppingRazor]

20. Don't watch my size, I'm dangerous n/t

[The Wizard]

38. Great

Peter Tosh recording

[grizmaster]

46. It's hard to get accurate polling in RI

There are a large number of unaffialited voters and determining who is likely to vote in a given primary is very difficult to predict.

My gut instinct on this having lived here my whole life is that it's going to be close because Chafee is going to have problems getting out the vote. His supporters have gotten soft in their support of him and they aren't going to be very motivated when a moderate like Whitehouse will still be in the mix for the general.

http://www.projo.com/news/content/projo_20060901_poll1.31e747b.html

PROVIDENCE -- The National Republican Senatorial Committee swooped in with sharply conflicting poll results yesterday after a Rhode Island College public-opinion survey showed U.S. Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee in serious danger of losing his seat.

The state college poll showed Cranston Mayor Stephen P. Laffey with a 17-point lead over incumbent Chafee in their Sept. 12 Republican primary contest. A NRSC memo released late yesterday said Chafee leads 53 percent to 39 percent, according to the national Republican polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies.

(snip)

What to make of the conflicting findings?
Victor Profughi, the veteran Rhode Island pollster and retired RIC political science professor who conducted the state college poll, said identifying voters likely to cast ballots in a primary "is always problematic."

(snip)

There are only about 68,864 registered Republicans, compared with 236,665 Democrats and 365,658 independents in Rhode Island. With a relatively low turnout of hard-line Republicans -- say, the 25,000 who voted in the 2002 GOP primary, Chafee has voiced his own doubts of surviving his GOP primary race against the more conservative Laffey. He has pinned his hopes on a large turnout of independent voters.

[BOSSHOG]

11. Just what will the rationale be from the right if Chafee loses

relative to their slamming dems for ousting Lieberman? No doubt, the college degreeless rove is hard at work in his whitehouse klavern working on the talking papers to explain the difference. Laffey is a much greater patriot, his blood is redder, he hates gays more effectively, he doesn't care if our kids get killed in Iraq. No doubt, that will soothe the right wing base.

[theanarch]

13. first, Chafee isn't Lieberman...

...and i seriously doubt Chafee would run as an independent (perhaps some RI DU'er can tell us if RI has a 'sore-loser' law that would prevent this). As for the spin, Daffey just represents real Republicans who take the Islam-o-Fascist nonsense seriously...more seriously than that cut&run appeaser Chafee (who wasn't a "real" repuke anyway), etc., etc., etc. Of course, it does make a Whitehouse victory that much more likely...

[BOSSHOG]

14. The GOP noise machine

made it perfectly clear how evil it was for dems to oust an incumbent in a primary. It doesn't make any difference if Chaffee runs as an independent. And if laffey is more apt to represent republicans and that's their legitimate rationale then the same can be said about the sane democrats and Lamont. No doubt, more gop hypocrisy just waiting in the wings.

[theanarch]

16. i'm not disagreeing re: GOP hypocrisy...

...at all; i'm just suggesting how the RNC/RSCC will spin this; Daffey is obviously mucho sympatico w/Junior's agenda, far more so than Chafee ever was, and it seems the RNC/RSCC would rather be Far Right than electorally successful in RI. The position you advance is just a good talking point to rile conservatives with, should the occasion arise (or a quick LTTE, or called-in comment to a talk radio show).

[BOSSHOG]

17. I live for riling up "conservatives" or "christians"

[DirtyJersey]

41. not quite

"and it seems the RNC/RSCC would rather be Far Right than electorally successful in RI"

The opposite of this is true. The RNC is pouring a ton of money into Chafee's race and running attack ads against Laffey. Also, I agree that Chafee wouldn't run as an Independent...he has much more integrity than Lieberman. However, I would be curious if he'd try to make a comback at office, and whether he'd do it as a Dem, Repub, or Independent.

[grizmaster]

47. No 'sore loser" law, but it's too late to get on the ballot

From what I can gather...


All Rhode Island candidates must file a declaration of intent on the last Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday of June in an election year. These are the deadlines for a candidate to declare a run for office.

And for statewide or federal office you need a 1,000 signatures.


So bottom line, it's too late for Chafee to do anything but try a write-in campaign. And I have very strong doubts he'd try.

[krkaufman]

18. And not just the Right. What about the Corpo media?

That's just what I was thinking when seeing this headline. I sincerely doubt we'll see the same end-of-the-world proclamations from the media over Rhode Island Republicans "purging" their Party.

[Sydnie]

15. I wouldn't start the count on Chaffee just yet

Laffey has been advertising heavily for weeks. Chaffee has just begun to do a blitz of sorts and the two ads are night and day of each other. Laffey is talking about issues, true enough, but Chaffee is talking personality and in RI, personality just might trump issues.

It's going to be an interesting election day in RI for sure.

[kentuck]

22. He should have switched Parties when he had the chance...

He could have won as a Democrat.

[w4rma]

24. I'm really glad he didn't tho.

Chafee is very anti-labor.

[mkb]

28. Food For Thought, Beware Of What You Eat

     Dr. Phool, the author of this post may think I'm
"phoolish" for my comments, but I quoted from Victor
Hugo's book a few submissions ago when I reminded people of
the "...most of us are our whole lives, it can't be
helped," from Les Miserables.
     Most of these quotes and sayings should be considered
with discrimination, not literally. 
     My point is to focus on maintaining the solidarity of
mind and will amongst the progressive community, those that
are found most predominantly in the working or "middle
class".  There is a multitude of complexities and ways of
interpreting language, and other phenomena that I wish to
leave, at least for now, to those qualified, and hopefully
helping the benign and positive world I and I hope many others
wish to live in.
     For the rest of us, maintaining the fundamental learning
to make the right decisions is I think the first priority. 
Then we can add to the library of information and
understanding as time goes on to make the best contribution we
can.
     Depending upon how much we know about the situation, this
could be seen as a conundrum, or confusing situation to
interpret.
     It seems similar to the Lamont/Lieberman situation that I
probably incorrectly commented on, not seeing that the
Republicans would vote for Lieberman, making Lamont the choice
in such a "spoiler" situation.  This was the
situation that many progressive people faced in 2000, trying
to figure out whether to vote for Nader or Gore.  Some even
devised a not necessarily crazy plan to "trade"
votes in various states, to maintain the strength of Nader and
more importantly, his movement, while still allowing Gore to
win in the short term, as it was unlikely Nader could.
     These are the situations most or all of us can make
reasonably good sense of, if we try.  My consideration of
Lieberman came mostly because I didn't spend the time and have
the knowledge to make the best decision.
     The knowledge that I HAVE spent the time acquiring and
thinking about however, I think is relevant for those who are
trying to contribute to a reasonable and bright future, and
present.
     The arguments are I think still sound, and I made them on
Stan Goff's website, in this case under the article "Why
white people are afraid."  If you look there, whatever
your reason, I caution once again that Goff and probably
others monitor your activity, particularly since he says so,
and was a Special Forces operative, now "socialist"
blogger.  Think it over carefully.
     The main points of the argument were that the 40 percent
or so of white progressives should probably see third parties
as a way of diverting strength from the Democrats, who are
presently our main defense against unfortunate and bad events.
 Also included was the firmness the white progressive
community has to be about maintaining their strength and not
being "victimized" for the sins of the white ruling
class.  Building bridges with others must come only because
you are strong enough to do so and understand the situation
well enough to do so.  There are many attempts to weaken you,
most importantly economically, by blaming you for things you
haven't done.  We can't expect perfect understanding before
making our decisions, but knowing more will most likely help
those decisions be good ones.
     The Chaffee/Laffey race is an example of this situation,
both important to Republicans, and Democrats, as we may
consider Chaffee the better politician, but also perhaps more
likely to defeat a Democrat in the general election.  Food for
thought.  Beware of what you eat.

[Dr.Phool]

37. First of all, I didn't write the piece

I posted it from TPM.

Second, you spent about 10 paragraphs saying absolutely nothing.

We're playing a numbers game for control of the Senate. Chaffee, who is a moderate Repuke, still helps in giving them the majority. Meaning control over all legislation, hearings, and investigations. He might be the nicest guy in the world, but his caucus status helps them stay in control. And he votes with the Republican majority almost all the time.

Get rid of him, and we're one step closer to the investigations we need to bring these criminals to justice. One step closer to slamming the door on the Bush agenda.

[mhatrw]

30. Exactly. But Lamont supporters were all al Qaeda loving zealots.

Where are all the hand wringing articles/pundits lambasting Republican zealots for dragging their party to the extreme right?

[Bucky]

31. Ah, Linc -- you shoulda jumped when the jumpin' was good

This is yet another sterling example of the Republicans' strategic brilliance.

[bdamomma]

34. This may work for Whitehouse

Laffey beats Chafee in the primary and Whitehouse beats Laffey (Right wingnut) that's what Atrois just said on Majority Report. and Whitehouse wins election. That would be sweet, 2 Dems for RI.

[geek tragedy]

35. Go Laffey!! The Republicans should absolutely

nominate a real Republican instead of a RINO like Chafee.

[OregonDem]

36. Will he pull a Leiberman? Has he said anything about that?

n/t

[usregimechange]

39. McCaskill can win here...

[Name removed]

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[mkb]

40. Do The Best You Can To Make Sense Of Things

     I'd like to add to my submission in that I think it's
reasonably accurate, but to reinforce the concept that many of
us are not "experts" in the sense of great
complexity, but trying to figure things out from a more basic
position.
     Remember the Grateful Dead album "In The Dark",
with the pleasant song "Touch of Grey", well that
sort of seems to describe many of us to one extent or another.
 Concerning the most complicated details, I am somewhat
"in the dark" and therefore say that my comments
must be thought about carefully, even though I usually advise
caution most of the time.
     The problem really is in this case, that I think you have
to act to some degree on your knowledge and ability, being
careful to correct mistakes and make adjustments along the
way.  It's sort of like being in the middle of things, not
abstaining from activity and also not being reckless in your
actions either.
     The real crucial problem I was writing about regards
building bridges between people.  I think that my statement
regarding the white progressive community is still mostly
accurate, but much thought is needed about how much and how
soon and with specifically whom the white progressive
community should build bridges.  I had an unusual
"exchange" with a black man in a library not long
ago, and I believe mutual exchange for progress is the message
I got from it.
     The differences and similarities that people have are
real, and require much thought, at least from many of us, to
sort out.
     The problem is expressed through the complexity I see in
understanding language and meaning.  The word ONE is a single
word, yet it has three distinct letters, all probably with
some symbolic meaning that has some importance.  I am trying
to resolve my desire for a benign and happy existence for
life, particularly human life, with the realization that it
takes understanding of ideas to resolve the problems we have. 
For those who understand things more thoroughly and feel the
same notion, I hope this will aid you in helping the situation
improve.  I think my knowledge of things is adequate to make
statements that I believe are at least mostly accurate, and as
I say, make adjustments, as I think most people have to do, as
time goes by.
     For example, I might have been correct to stop writing
after the previous paragraph, but I believe my words to be
aimed generally correctly, so I will write one more.  The
white progressive community still needs to consider the
lessons of history, which I don't think can be tossed aside. 
The references I made in my earlier submission on this topic
might be useful.  Those mainly being to not lower your guard
against the forces emanating from all groups, including white,
that are wearing you down, particularly economically, until
your position and knowledge is strong enough to reach out. 
It's not an easy problem to solve, and there will likely be
various experiences within this context to sort out, but I
think my suggestion still worth considering.

[MoonRiver]

45. K&R!

Another example of how incredibly STUPID Repukes are!! :D

[grizmaster]

48. A few comments from a Rhode Islander

Two sets of info for you


First-

There are a large number of unaffialited voters and determining who is likely to vote in a given primary is very difficult to predict.

My gut instinct on this having lived here my whole life is that it's going to be close because Chafee is going to have problems getting out the vote. His supporters have gotten soft in their support of him and they aren't going to be very motivated when a moderate like Whitehouse will still be in the mix for the general.

http://www.projo.com/news/content/projo_20060901_poll1.31e747b.html

PROVIDENCE -- The National Republican Senatorial Committee swooped in with sharply conflicting poll results yesterday after a Rhode Island College public-opinion survey showed U.S. Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee in serious danger of losing his seat.

The state college poll showed Cranston Mayor Stephen P. Laffey with a 17-point lead over incumbent Chafee in their Sept. 12 Republican primary contest. A NRSC memo released late yesterday said Chafee leads 53 percent to 39 percent, according to the national Republican polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies.

(snip)

What to make of the conflicting findings?
Victor Profughi, the veteran Rhode Island pollster and retired RIC political science professor who conducted the state college poll, said identifying voters likely to cast ballots in a primary "is always problematic."

(snip)

There are only about 68,864 registered Republicans, compared with 236,665 Democrats and 365,658 independents in Rhode Island. With a relatively low turnout of hard-line Republicans -- say, the 25,000 who voted in the 2002 GOP primary, Chafee has voiced his own doubts of surviving his GOP primary race against the more conservative Laffey. He has pinned his hopes on a large turnout of independent voters.



And as to any Lieberman type shenanigans

No sore loser law and


All Rhode Island candidates must file a declaration of intent on the last Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday of June in an election year. These are the deadlines for a candidate to declare a run for office.

And for statewide or federal office you need a 1,000 signatures.


So bottom line, it's too late for Chafee to do anything but try a write-in campaign. And I have very strong doubts he'd try.

[Name removed]

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