Come November I won't be surprised if we LOSE Senate seats/Social Security

[Ignacio Upton]

We currently have five Senate seats in our column that are competitive or could become competitive. They are races in New Jersey, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, and Washington state. Out of these three, I'm deeply concerned about NJ, MD, and WA, based on a pair of news stories out today, and because of one state's Senatorial primary which could hand us a weak candidate with little money.

I'll do a summary:

NJ-Sen:
Bob Menendez, Corzine's appointed replacement, is losing to Tom Kean Jr in both a Rasmussen poll by 5%, and a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll by 4%. (Kean Jr. is the the son of that 9/11 Commission douche-bag who's promoting PT 9/11...possibly to help Jr. in this race.) But PT-9/11 aside, Menendez is in trouble. Republicans have a very good shot a capturing a NJ Senate seat for the first time in 34 years. An article came out yesterday reporting that a federal probe is being launched into Menendez dealings with a house he rented:
http://www.wnbc.com/politics/9806805/detail.html
In terms of general perception, Kean Jr. is seen as a Boy Scout with a sqeaky-clean image, even though he's a Dubya-like lightweight, continues to support the Iraq War, and wants to privatize Social Security (he's no moderate for that reason alone, folks!)

MD-Sen:
Primary voters are set on Tuesday to choose between Congressman Ben Cardin and former NAACP head (and former Congressman in his own right) Kweisi Mfume. Both would make good Senators based on their voting records. However, Mfume will fuck us over in the broader scheme of things. There have been allegations made against him of sexual harrassment and favoratism while he was in charge of the NAACP. Combined with the fact that he father five out of wedlock kids (which by itself would not be an issue because he had them before he cleaned up his life and went to college and became a political activist) will allow for Steele to paint a narrative against Mfume that will make him embody the worst racila stereotypes of African-American leaders. While Mfume will be able to keep black voters from defecting to Steele (something that, admittedly, Cardin will have to deal with) he will lose a ton of white suburbanite voters in places like Anne Arundel County and Baltimore County (there is a Baltimore County that's separate from the City of Baltimore, for those who don't know much about MD.) Mfume is also at a great financial disadvantage, having less tan $200,000 for cash of hand as of July, while Steele had roughly $3 million. The DSCC will help Mfume if he wins, but they will have to do so at the price of diverting money from other Senate races. People like Claire McCaskill and Jim Webb have the potential to make their races competitive, but they are not getting sufficient money to do so, and thus are more dependent on DSCC money - money that will have to be diverted to Mfume.
And like in NJ with Kean Jr., Steele has fostered, and is continued to push a faux "Boy Scout" image. Even though he compared Stem Cell Research to the Holocaust, and considers privatizing Social Security "the key to the American dream."


WA-Sen:
I thought that Cantwell was doing well until this article came out today:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060908/ap_on_go_co/senator_cantwell_lobbyist

While Maria did not doing anything wrong with Dotzauer, look for Mike McGavick (who also supports Bush and Social Security privatization) to smear Cantwell with this, and look for the Cantwell-haters on our side of the asile to enable him. McGavick will be just as bad as Kean and Steele, but unlike the first two, his baggage has already been revealed to an extent:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/6420AP_WA_McGavick_VECO.html
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2003247235_mcgavick07m.html
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2003248770_creditscore08m.html
I'm not sure how the Dotzauer story will affect the race, as there has been no polling yet, but I would be concerned just in case. Ad that to the fact that there is an anti-Cantwell contigent on the left that is happy to see a Bush support and privatizer get elected, and I think this race will tighten further.

...There you have it folks! Three Rethugs who will kiss Bush's ass and take away your Social Security. Unfortunately, while our party looks good overall, voters in individual state races "vote for the man, not the party" because they apparently don't remember what they learned in high school government classes: that people with a "D" or an "R" next to their names will vote for the Senate or House leadership of their party, no matter how "moderate" they may be. But try telling that to the idiots in NJ who will vote for Kean, or the white suburbanites in Anne Arundel County, MD who will vote for Steele over Mfume, or the Cantwell-haters in WA who will stay home and let a rabid right-winger win. These voters are either knowingly or unknowingly enabling the strengthening of the GOP majority in the Senate, and are enabling the future destruction of Social Security in doing so!

[AX10]

1. I do NOT agree at all. We will gain at least 3 seats (net).

[Ignacio Upton]

3. Tell that to voters in MD, NJ, and WA state

They're the ones who are brain-dead enough to help this country slide further into oblivion. And even if we win in RI, PA, OH, MO, MT, VA, and TN (which itself is a best-case scenario) we will only have gained four seats. Based on trends and polling, I think that we would win PA, MT, RI, and OH if the election were held today, and we would lose NJ, MD, and possibly WA after this non-scandal. That would leave us with a net gain of only ONE measly seat! Wow, we'll go from having 45 seats (including Jeffords) to having 46 (including Bernie Sanders, who himself is the target of swiftboating in VT by Richard Tarrant!)

[windbreeze]

Excuse me!!....brain dead in Wa?

I have no intention of voting for McGavick...I will vote Cantwell...even though I am not thrilled with her....how about the top Democratic dogs help us find viable candidates...and then support them?? Wash state is blue...blue...blue....and I believe it will stay that way...the $9 million that Rep's spent to try and put Rossi in as Gov...didn't work...so why do you think McGavick, the creep, will win??? If that's so..something must be going on, that I don't know about...and if Maria Cantwell is so damned worried about her position, perhaps she should do something about it....

I, for one, am sick and tired of voting for those who forget what their job is, just because we are from the same party...They get paid to represent US, to look out for us...we hire them, and we have the right to fire them...there is nothing written in stone that says once they get the position, it's theirs for life, guaranteed...what they do, actions they take...do matter...and they need to be held accountable...
windbreeze

[Ignacio Upton]

19. Cantwell is only one brick (Democrat) that holds up the house (Senate)

I'm worried about these races because we need to worry about the overall size of our caucus. I don't care for Cantwell much either, but she'll still vote for Harry Reid as Senate Minority (hopefully Majority) Leader. That "D" next to her name makes the difference in the size of our caucus.

[Selatius]

22. Don't you worry about Sanders; he's got that Senate seat locked up.

Sanders will bury Tarrant even if he runs a mudslinging campaign. The polls show Sanders is ahead 65-29.

http://bernie.org/?p=239

[BeautifulLoser]

2. Wow

I thought for sure those three states were solidly Democratic

[Ignacio Upton]

4. Those states may be pissed off at Bush

But Senate races are an anomoly. People "vote for the man, not the party" because most people don't even realize how the freakin' Senate works in structure!

[BeautifulLoser]

6. Understood

I still don't see how Menendez can lose.

He is doing a good job.

[BlooInBloo]

13. Given that you say *that*, I can see how you'd think WA is a loser...

... since Democrats here aren't going to vote for a man, rather, they'll vote for Maria Cantwell, who as of the last poll I saw was up 6 points.

(shrug) I don't see any superduper reason to worry about her seat, but if you wanna be a concern troll, rock on.

[Ignacio Upton]

14. I take offense to that

I'm being realistic about our chances. Until polling comes out showing the effects of this news article on the race, I'm being cautious.

[acmejack]

23. Especially since her opponent is said to be hip deep in the VECO

Scandal in Alaska. He will be in full CYOA mode according to knowledgable sources.

http://www.horsesass.org/index.php?p=1964

http://www.kirkdorffer.com/ontheroadto2008/2006/09/mcgavicks-alaskan-oil-connections-run.shtml

[Ignacio Upton]

25. But this lobbyist story will neutralize any momentum

That Cantwell could have gotten out of that. Combined with the lack of enthusiasm from our side, I think this will make the race closer.

[Va Lefty]

5. NJ worries me too

I think MD and WA will be 3-4% spread but we will win both

[AX10]

7. Washington, yes. But we will win Maryland by a larger margin.

[Ignacio Upton]

12. Not if Mfume's the nominee

If Cardin wins it will still be close (some black voters who would otherwise vote for Mfume, might defect to Steele based on race) but overall he'll retain more voters than Mfume, and he has more cash. I think that Maria will win by about 2%-3%, but I think that Mfume could easily lose, especailly because of the smear campaign that will be run against him and because of the money gap. He could still win too, but just because he's a good orator, does not mean that people will actually tune in to the debates. Senate debates generally don't attract the large audiences that Presidential debates do. Voters will be watching Desperate Housewives or 24 instead of the debates...and then they'll vote Steele because the Steele ad they just saw told them to do so.

[AX10]

15. When is the primary? I hope Cardin wins it.

[Ignacio Upton]

16. Tuesday, September 12th

If you are a MD resident, I beg you to vote for Cardin!

[AX10]

17. I live in CT. I voted for Lamont.

I do hope Cardin wins.

[blm]

8. I cry, "BULL!" The people of Maryland know Mfume's history and he uses

it himself as he has for decades - to HELP STEER OTHER DISADVANTAGED YOUTHS AWAY from trouble.

I really think your post is overthetop and full of unnecessary fear and spin.

[AX10]

10. I agree.

[Generic Other]

9. Hadn't heard this Cantwell story yet

I am sure it will give the other side great joy. GRRRR...that damn bitch. I see McGavrick's record of villainy is pretty extensive. I think he's too low on the totem pole tio defeat Cantwell, but she's not making anyhone's job easier dammit.

[sandnsea]

26. For protecting salmon?

How can there be a problem with protecting salmon with a muni-owned water project? Yeah I've seen your posts for quite a while too and am not surprised you would pile on.

[Generic Other]

32. Honestly, I have been trying to give her the benefit of the doubt of late

I hate her war vote, of course, and I am always railing at her when I call her office, but I was trying not to be so actively negative toward her on DU threads. I was in fact almost to the stage where I could talk about her in a civil tone. But being involved in lobbyist scandals is the last thing I want to hear about my senator. Let the GOP get caught up in that crap. Not us.

I am afraid the Cantwell race will be too close, so I don't want hear she's done something new to jeopardize her chances. I don't think she is going to have an easy race, but that's her fault, don't you think?

[sandnsea]

33. It's her fault people believe right wing lies?

That are perpetuated by those on the left as well, for whatever wacky reasons??? No, I don't think that's her fault at all.

[Generic Other]

34. Huh? Her war vote was a right wing lie?

I am wacky for caring about how my senators vote?

I have no right to feel like her votes aided and abetted Bush? And now on top of this I have no right to find unethical the fact she appears to be rewarding her former campaign manager's new lobbying business? I think that kind of business relationship sounds a bit risky and not worth the bad press. It smells.

[sandnsea]

35. That would certainly be one

The biggest idiocy the left helpd the right spread, that the vote caused the war and not Bush. But you keep spreading that shit and then wring your hands and cry woe is me when you've got a bigger piece of shit fucking up Washington State and the country. I'm not having these arguments again. Say whatever stupid-ass shit you want.

[Generic Other]

36. Tran Hong is also running in the Democratic primary

I hadn't looked at her before, but maybe I should. Here's her platform.

As your U.S. Senator I will:

* Work hard to keep our jobs in America. Trade agreements like NAFTA, CAFTA, and the WTO are sending our jobs overseas.

* Demand the repeal of the US Patriot Act. As Americans our greatest asset is our civil rights, and they must be protected.

* Fight for the immediate withdrawal of U.S. Troops from Iraq. We want our soldiers home safe, and we want them home now.

http://www.hongtran.com/

:hi:

[EstimatedProphet]

11. Well, as long as we are Diebolded...

part of me expects massive losses regardless of what the polls say. The Polls could say that Bush has a 2% approval rate, and I still think that somehow there will be something that will come along 2 days before the election, maybe an ad or something, and then suddenly there will be a solid Republican victory in every seat in the House and Senate. And the media will play it up as a failure of the Democrats, and everyone will buy into it and say "Just wait until next time!", and people will still refuse to look at the fact that the Republicans own all the voting machines.

[aquart]

18. Thank you for your concern.

We certainly need people to demoralize as many of us as possible.

[Ignacio Upton]

20. That's not my intent

I'm trying to ALERT people what's going on.

[ProfessorGAC]

21. Alerting Everyone To Your Opinion?

Smells like hubris.
The Professor

[sandnsea]

24. Washington will support the dam project

It's exactly what environmentalists in the northwest want, muni-owned dam projects that protect the salmon. Also bio-tech is very big here as a generally clean industry. An old loan of a few thousand dollars is going to reek of desperation if anybody tries to use that againt Cantwell. Sorry to screw up your doom and gloom projection, but this is much ado about nothing.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

27. Maria in bed with the lobbyists? Hardly a surprise.

But, that's not why I'm not voting for. Her vote for and support of BushCo's war already decided that.

[Ignacio Upton]

28. Well, then kiss your Social Security goodbye when you retire

Because McGavick will vote to snatch it away from you.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

29. I'm already retired.

I'm also retired from "hold your nose" candidates like Maria.

[yellowcanine]

30. Cardin will win primary and general election in Maryland. Can't speak to

the other states but Maryland Dems are not about to let this seat get away.

[AX10]

31. Cardin should get about 55% in the GE.