Looks like a death spiral to me.

[cornermouse]

It sure as heck isn't growth. We all know the drill. The company isn't making enough money or may even be losing money so they lay off workers, announce they've cut their costs/losses, announce that they made money after all or will make money next year, occasionally sprinkle in some outsourcing or a date in court to file bankruptcy, and voila' the world is happy.

One little problem... They're going to be less able to meet customer demands and in most cases will produce less. So they charge a higher price for it to try to make up for the gap. If its an item the public buys, less people are going to be able to afford it because they've lost their job; whether with that or some other company because this has become a widespread practice.

No matter how you try to pretty it up or change what you call it, the fact is our national economy is in a death spiral.

[Cooley Hurd]

1. The recent surge in oil prices will be the kiss of death...

...for the US economy.

We're on the cusp of some serious hurt. x(

[wake.up.america]

2. Please define WE. I doubt the big wigs will suffer as most of us...

define suffer.

[cornermouse]

3. I agree.

Did you hear this weekend's assessment that we would be hoping to see $3.00 for a gallon of gas? This is going to financially destroy a lot of people and a lot of companies.

[Cooley Hurd]

4. Many don't see how dependent we are on trucking companies...

...just about every consumer item you buy is reliant on shipping, either a component or the whole item. That's where it translates to higher cost to the consumer.

I can't wait to see the oil companies' profits reports...:grr:

[natrat]

5. it's not just trucking

oil is in everything=
plastic
fertilizer
rail transport
automobile production
any production

[salin]

8. if costs go up too much it becomes cheaper

to buy goods manufactured closer (as in there becomes an advantage again to US manufacturing) - but in the past 10 years - escalating in the past five or so - we have stopped manufacturing much. We are much less capable of being self-reliant as a country (that is producing what we need)

[Cooley Hurd]

11. It certainly will hurt Wal-Mart's biz...

...that's for sure!:thumbsup:

[WePurrsevere]

9. Many already are in serious hurt just struggling to heat their homes.

They're having to make choices of eating and heating their homes. Although the oil and power companies are making very healthy profits the price increases just keep coming.

The Republicans currently in the majority give tax cuts to the rich while cutting funds from the programs set up to help the poor such as the heating assistance program. Because of an increased demand and these budget cuts the HEAP program in NY may run out of money by the end of January instead of March as it usually does and that is with them only giving out a maximum benefit of approx $400. ... many will get much less.

People are setting their thermostats much lower, 55 to 65, and keeping their faucets running at a trickle so the pipes don't freeze. I know those temps wouldn't bother some here but for seniors and those disabled and in pain it's miserable since their pain increases.

This has been the most difficult Winter I've ever experienced... and we still have at least 2 difficult months to go yet.

[no_hypocrisy]

6. Here's the thing: The economy is sort of like global warming.

We know what the problem is, but it's so vast, so large that we can't "fix" it with a snap of the fingers. We're all going to be in a period of instability as a society for a while before we return to where we are on this date. The difference is maybe the economy will "come back". I'm not certain about global warming.

[Mutley]

7. Did anyone see the Oil Sands story on 60 Minutes last night?

They're trumping up the Oil Sand fields in Canada to make it sound like those reserves will last us 100 years. If that's the case, why does the price of oil keep going up?

[Delphinus]

10. I watched it.

They didn't talk much about the cost of getting it, refining it, etc. From what I understand from those on the Peak Oil forum (here on DU), there's that equation of energy expended for energy received (not quite the right words), and it's a lose-lose operation. The Earth gets stripped of its resources, the environment takes a beating, and the only way to recoup any costs is by charging an extremely high price. T. Boone Pickens got that part right in the piece - it wasn't cost effective before gas got to be $60 per barrel.

[Mutley]

12. Do you agree that those reserves could last 100 years?

Or be more important to the US than the Saudi reserves?

[hatrack]

17. It's taken them 30 years and about $15 billion to get to 1 MBD

So, how much longer and how much more costly to get to 2 or 3 million barrels? On top of that, what happens once the cheap in situ natural gas is gone?

Tar sands - turning cheap natural gas into expensive synthetic oil.

[Mutley]

19. So, it's not all they cracked it up to be, then.

[Tesha]

14. Because it costs a fortune to extract oil from "oil sands".

> They're trumping up the Oil Sand fields in Canada to make
> it sound like those reserves will last us 100 years. If
> that's the case, why does the price of oil keep going up?

Because it costs a fortune to extract oil from "oil sands".

"Peak Oil" doesn't mean that you turn on the spigot one day,
one drop drips out, and that's the end. Peak Oil means that
as supplies become increasingly scarce, the price of oil
will rise with no upper boundary. There will always be oil,
but someday it may cost what Dom Perignon costs gallon for
gallon.

Tesha

[Mutley]

16. I know that much about Peak Oil...

but the way they ran the story made it sound like these oil sands are the answer to peak oil.

[Tesha]

18. If you're willing to pay, there's still lots of oil available.

There's plenty at, say, $75 a barrel and even more
at $100/barrel. The question is: Are we ready and
willing to pay?

Tesha

[lectrobyte]

15. It's probably way expensive to extract the oil from the tar sands,

or they'd be doing it already. That's the thing about peak oil -- it's not that we run out of oil, it's that we run out of cheap oil.

[MadHound]

21. Because getting oil from sand is labor intensive, money intensive work

That's the thing about Peak Oil. It isn't that we're reaching the end of oil, we're reaching the end of affordable oil. Sure, they can pull oil from sand, but it is going to be mighty expensive.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

13. I know nothing about economics

but it seems to me if Ford is going down we have a problem.

[Junkdrawer]

20. When advanced manufacturing methods and massive capital are exported...

to nations like China where workers are paid 1/100th the wage of American workers, and when this export is not only not opposed but subsidized with tax credits, yeah I'd say we're screwed.

[MadHound]

22. So, folks, we have very clear warning signs.

We're not Bushbots blindly following their leader over the economic cliff. Thus, it is time for those of us who can to start preparing for this coming calamity. Food is going to be a huge problem, since petroleum is intimately entwined with virtually every phase of our modern agriculture process, from the seed going into the ground to the food getting to your table. One simple way for people to break this cycle, and save yourself money is to grow and store your own food. Properly done, a 30X30 foot plot of ground can provide virtually all of your produce needs for a year.

As for meat goes, get yourself a new or used freezer and by your meat from local, organic farmers. A side of beef can supply a family for a year, and it is cheaper than buying in the store. Pork and chicken can be done the same way. And for those of you who like to hunt, well there are plenty of deer in the forest, and deer meat is indeed yummy(and in many ways better for you than beef).

As for as transportation goes, it is a matter of what you can afford and where you are. SmartCars, those European wonders are great if you can afford them. Hybrids are another good option if you can afford them. If not, there are several other options, including scooters, that will get you great gas mileage, and don't cost an arm and a leg. I'm personally doing a fifty-two mile round trip commute on a Bajaj scooter, it goes 55-60mph, at 100mpg.

For home heating, very little beats an external or internal woodstove. In most places lumber is readily available and pretty cheap, especially if you cut it yourself. If you're worried about emissions you can fit your stove with a catalytic convertor that will cut down emissions by ninety percent.

Other options include solar panels and wind turbines. While not everybody has the land for a windturbine(it takes a quarter acre to set one up), virtually everybody can throw a couple of kilowatts of solar panels on their roof. Thin film photovoltaics are increasing panel efficiency while bringing down prices. If you have a nice size piece of land, consider putting up a wind turbine, and not only supply your own needs, but those of your neighbor too.

Granted, wind turbines and solar panels have a large initial monetary outlay. But they can be built into your home mortage, and they will save you money in the long run, and increase the value of your property.

I realize that not everybody can do all, or even any of these options. But most of us can start doing one or two, and thus start preparing ourselves for this onrushing crisis. So I highly suggest that we start preparing. Otherwise we'll all be going over the cliff, and it won't be pretty.