Intelligent discussion of the North Korea issue: DemocracyNow...

[Junkdrawer]

Transcript will be here in a few hours:

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/10/09/1358255

Direct Real Audio link:

http://play.rbn.com/?url=demnow/demnow/demand/2006/oct/audio/dn20061009.ra&proto=rtsp&start=12:53

IMHO, the key is China. And if I were to hazard a guess, I'd guess China wants to take the spotlight off of Iran and place it on North Korea.

[Junkdrawer]

1. .

[helderheid]

2. Thanks!

[Junkdrawer]

3. In the interview, this article by Shen Dingli was referenced....

I found an english translation:

http://english.ohmynews.com/articleview/article_view.asp?no=321291&rel_no=1

[Junkdrawer]

5. Excerpt from the cited article...

...

Difficult for China and Russia to Make Decision on Imposing Sanctions

At present, China's core interests lie not only in developing the economy but also in reunifying the nation. The main task now is "opposing Taiwan independence." The final goal is to realize the state's reunification. In this respect, the DPRK at least puts in check the tens of thousands of U.S. troops in South Korea, thus helping to reduce the U.S. military pressure on the course of reunification and "opposing Taiwan independence." To a certain extent, the DPRK helps China share the military threat of the U.S. military force in the Asia-Pacific region. As an ally, the DPRK also helps our country defend the main gate of China's northeast regions. As the DPRK holds the view that it contributes to China's national security, it is therefore impossible for China to abandon the DPRK and it is absolutely impossible for China to adopt comprehensive sanctions against it just because the DPRK conducts nuclear tests.

The DPRK may calculate that China would care more about not having "regime change" as well as having a stable situation on the Korean Peninsula. China will therefore be forced to accept the result of DPRK nuclear testing. The DPRK may likewise hold that Russia, though it is not happy about the DPRK's nuclear tests, will also not really impose sanctions on it.

....

[Junkdrawer]

6. More: What about Japan and South Korea....

...

U.S.-Japan, U.S.-South Korea Alliances Put to Test

There is a lingering worry in the international community that the DPRK's nuclear test will incite Japan and South Korea to develop their own nuclear programs. Such a view is based on the not-too-great belief in the reliability of the alliance between the United States and its East Asian partners. Although such a possibility cannot be ruled out, the chances of Japan and South Korea developing their own nuclear programs are not great.

If Japan and South Korea develop their own nuclear programs in disregard of their military alliance relationship with the United States due to a DPRK nuclear test, this will only show that they no longer believe in U.S. military protection and would like to go their own way on defense issues. This is bound to erode their alliance relationship with the United States, thus subjecting the East Asian security situation headed by the U.S. to even greater challenges. The United States may not control the DPRK's nuclear tests, but it still has the ability to prevent its East Asian allies from independently taking the path of developing nuclear weapons.

...

[leftchick]

4. Thank you Jd!

:)