Increasingly looking like test was a dud

[Poiuyt]

Increasingly looking like test was a dud
by AJ in DC - 10/09/2006 01:04:00 PM

My friends in the non-proliferation world are pretty confident that this was a failed test. Apparently it would have been difficult for North Korea to test a one-kilo nuke, as the standard -- and what they've always done -- is 20. The test reportedly yielded a sub-kiloton explosion, along with a radiological event, which makes it very likely that North Korea attempted a 20 kilo test and it failed. North Korea is, of course, claiming a successful test, but it's very much in their strategic interest to muddy the waters if the test did fail. (I owe a great debt for this analysis to ArmsControlWonk, which has crashed -- their post from this morning is now cross-posted here.)

HOWEVER. A failed test should not be confused with a victory for the U.S. or the international community -- this event marks a critical time for international diplomacy. The world may have briefly dodged a bullet, but we must take this opportunity to engage and deal with a threat that is clearly growing, though, thankfully, perhaps not quite as much as we thought just a few hours ago.

The whole world is working on how to react to this, and many nations will still look to the U.S. for direction. The North Korean diplomatic position is significantly weakened if, in fact, the test was a failure, which would mean that North Korea does not have a workable nuclear bomb design.

We can either take this opportunity to reengergize diplomacy and realize that we're still on the wrong course with North Korea, or we can continue along the same path that got us here in the first place. We can't let them off the hook, and what we do now may make or break the future of U.S. nuclear security. President Bush, the ball is in your court. Please don't blow it.

http://americablog.blogspot.com/2006/10/increasingly-looking-like-test-was-dud.html

(Note from John: AJ is a former intelligence officer with the US Department of Defense.)

[WillyT]

1. Very Important Info !!! - Thank You !!! - K & R !!!

:kick:

[babylonsister]

2. Lets hope someone shares this with dimson.

Giving diplomacy a shot sounds like the way to go, but I remain sadly skeptical.

[corkhead]

3. I don't know about that, it did succeed in putting the spotlight on

the ineptitude of OUR "great leader"

[graywarrior]

4. Didn't someone famous (J.Lennon) say something like

"there are no problems, just solutions." This is an opportunity that I doubt this administration will take advantage of.

[acmavm]

5. So even if the test was a dud, the radioactivity factor on the

planet just jumped by a bunch didn't it? I mean it seems to me that idiots with nuclear material are probably as radioactive as blivet** and his big mouth. Neither one is good for living creatures.

[Poiuyt]

14. It may have not even been a nuclear test

There was a NK expert on CNN today who said that NK has been deceptive in the past. He said that it was possible that the test was done with enough conventional explosives to trigger the seismographic response.

The fact is that we just don't know at this point. Was the test real or fake? If it was real was it a success or not? We don't have all the data yet.

[TheWraith]

17. Nope.

For one thing, the test was almost certainly underground, so very very little radiation could be released even if it went successfully.

Second, you could conduct atmospheric nuclear tests from here to Tuesday without significantly increasing the world radiation level unless you were testing really, really big fission-chain bombs. The Soviets did an atmospheric 50 megaton blast back in the '60s--despite being the largest bomb ever tested, it was also the least radioactive bomb, since it was 97% fusion.

It pays to remember that thousands of atmospheric nuclear tests have been conducted over the last 60 years, and worldwide nuclear radiation levels are still quite low.

[shadow 99]

6. We will know it was a failure when:

We will know it was a failure when North Korean Scientists that were involved with the failed test flee to China and South Korea because suddenly they started losing family members to strange causes.

[sutz12]

7. Thanks for the update.

However, even a "failed" test yields important information to be used in future tests, much like the failed missile. This could be good news, or at least less than catastrophic news, but still, the fact that they tested at all is a testament to the current administration's failed policies.

[rockymountaindem]

8. I hope he's right

A failed test is a lot better for the rest of us than a successful one.

[pretzel4gore]

9. ah, have cake and eat it too....

get the benefit of having NK demonised as danger to lil kids etc while giggling that the test was a failure...the fact is NK is a 3rd world country with smaller population then california and smaller military budget then alabama......it hardly threatens anyone....cnn, foxnews abc etc otoh wars daily on the american people, trying to defraud them through massive longterm misinformation campaign...

------
these stats are pre 911, but they do indicate......?

Defense Spending
Experts once argued whether Americans would finally grasp the enormity of the
military budget when spending reached $100 billion. Now $416 billion, and
candidates still arguing over who will spend the most, it would appear people still
haven't grasped a budget beyond comprehension.
Here's how political leaders are
spending the discretionary budget.
World's Largest
Military Budgets:
($U.S. Billions)
United States 416.0
Russia* 65.0
China* 47.0
Japan 42.6
U.K. 38.4
France 29.5
Germany 24.9
Saudi Arabia 21.3
Italy 19.4
India 15.6
South Korea 14.1
Brazil* 10.7
Taiwan* 10.7
Israel 10.6
Spain 8.4
Australia 7.6
Canada 7.6
Netherlands 6.6
Turkey 5.8
Mexico 5.9
Kuwait* 3.9
Ukraine 5.0
Iran 4.8
Singapore 4.8
Sweden 4.5
Egypt* 4.4
Norway 3.8
Greece 3.5
Poland 3.5
Argentina* 3.3
U.A.E.* 3.1
Colombia* 2.9
Belgium 2.7
Pakistan* 2.6
Denmark 2.4
Vietnam 2.4
North Korea 2.1
Czech Republic 1.6
Iraq 1.4
Philippines 1.4
Portugal 1.3
Libya 1.2
Hungary 1.1
Syria 1.0
Cuba 0.8
Sudan 0.6
Yugoslavia 0.7
Luxembourg 0.2
Source: www.cdi.org.

[Justice Is Comin]

10. North Korea is not going to do anything that would assure their

virtual destruction by first strike.

But if someone (not mentioning any names) has the ability and sabre rattling intent to attack them with Iraq II, they are going to take a few people out with them when they go.

And I don't blame them.

[Garbo 2004]

11. Kevin Drum at Wash. Monthly also posted some speculation about

the possibility that it was a dud or not as the NK claims: http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_10/009701.php

[gordianot]

12. Yuck a dirty bomb! Still nasty.

[Ian David]

13. Actually, Kim Jong Il was defending himself against The Crab People

The Crab People are evidently evil beings, given that their appearance is emphasised by the lyrics to their ominious leitmotif: "Crab people, crab people, taste like crab, talk like people."

They are a species of what appears to be mutant crab. They are crabs that stand about four feet tall and speak English. They have appeared or been mentioned in the South Park episodes "South Park is Gay!", "Quest for Ratings" and "Two Days Before the Day After Tomorrow."

More:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fictional_races_in_South_Park#Crab_People

[Blackthorn]

23. Crab People are awesome.

[Javaman]

15. Hate to be the guy that has to poke it with a stick to make sure. nt

[elehhhhna]

16. OF COURSE IT WS A DUD! They bought that shit from RUMMY. duh.

[sweetheart]

18. the happy ending is: "it was a dud", beware

That allows them to attack to pre-empt the development of a non-dud weapon.
There is a lot of benefit to changing the number on the seizmic event recorder
and letting the downstream ripples do the work for you. Is this independently
verified? Otherwise, its a worthless lie.

[Parche]

19. north korea

They are 'Explode and Run' Axis of Evil Doer's

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

20. it equaled ~500 tons of TNT.

I wouldn't call that a dud under any circumstances.

[NNN0LHI]

21. Russia is reporting it was about ten times that size or larger

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&pubid=968163964505&cid=1160398085972&col=968705899037&call_page=TS_News&call_pageid=968332188492&call_pagepath=News/News

Korean test blast similar to Hiroshima
Oct. 9, 2006. 08:49 AM


MOSCOW (AP) — Russia's defence minister said Monday that the power of North Korea's nuclear blast was equivalent to 5,000 to 15,000 tons of TNT — several times greater than a South Korean estimate.

Sergei Ivanov said Russian Defence Ministry systems detected an underground nuclear explosion in North Korea.

"The force of the test explosion of the Korean nuclear weapon is in the range of five to 15 kilotons," Ivanov said in televised comments. A kiloton is 1,000 tons.

The high side of the Russian estimate would make the North Korean test blast comparable to the strength of the atomic bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima in the Second World War.

South Korea's geological institute had estimated the force of Monday's blast at just 550 tons of TNT

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

22. Why do I feel I should believe the Russians?

Hmm.