Breakdown of House and Senate Races According to Real Clear Politics

[Time for change]

It looks at this point that the only thing that is likely to prevent the Democrats from taking over the House and/or Senate is a combination of election fraud and dirty tricks – and even that may not be enough.


House

The last seven generic congressional ballot polls (which ask which party’s candidate one is likely to vote for in one’s Congressional district), dating from October 5th, have averaged a 15 percentage point advantage for the Democrats over the Republicans. This includes two of the last three polls which have given the Democrats a 21 point (CNN) and 23 point (USA Today/Gallup) lead. As far as I can tell no other polls have given the Democrats a 20 point or greater lead this election cycle.

Gallup’s 23 point Democratic lead applies equally to registered and likely voters and represents the largest Democratic lead since 1978. Gallup notes several additional factors which predict a strong Democratic performance this election, including the lowest Presidential approval rating during a mid-term election since Harry Truman’s Presidency, a woeful 24% job approval rating for Congress, dissatisfaction by two thirds of Americans of “the way things are going in the United States”, and the favoring of Democrats over Republicans to handle every single issue, include terrorism.

Perhaps even more important than the overall Democratic lead is how they fare in key races. “Real Clear Politics” discusses the races most likely to switch parties, judging that the 30 most likely seats to switch parties in November are all currently held by Republicans. Below is a summary of their breakdown for the 27 most vulnerable seats, listed in the order judged by RCP to be the most vulnerable, and listing the average poll results for October, unless otherwise specified (+ means Democrat favored). Democrats need to win just 15 of these in order to take control of the House, assuming they don’t lose any of their own seats – none which they appear likely to lose at this time.

TX 22: No Republican on ballot (DeLay’s seat)
CO 7: +6 (3 polls)
AZ 8: +8 (1 poll)
FL 16: +5 (2 polls, Foley’s seat)
PA 10: +14 (1 poll)
IA 1: -1 (2 polls, but Democrat +11 in latest poll)
IN 8: +15 (last September poll)
PA 6: +2 (1 poll)
OH 18: +8 (2 polls)
NC 11: +9 (2 polls)
PA 11: +1 (last September poll)
NY 24: No polls
CT 4: Even (2 polls)
IN 9: +5 (2 polls)
NM 1: +9 (2 polls)
OH 15: No polls
CT 2: -3 (1 poll)
IL 6: +3 (3 polls)
MN 6: Even (3 polls, but Democrat +5 in latest poll)
OH 1: +9 (last August poll)
KY 4: -4 (3 polls)
WA 8: -3 (1 poll)
PA 8: -8 (last August poll)
IN 2: +8 (4 polls)
WI 8: No polls
FL 13: +7 (2 polls)
NY 26: +11 (4 polls)

Most vulnerable Democrat – IL 8: +19 (last September poll)


Senate

Real Clear Politics judges 9 Senate races (7 currently held by Republicans) to be competitive, and the Democrats need to win 8 of those to take control of the Senate. They consider none of these 9 seats to “lean Republican” and 4 to “lean Democrat”, including the following:

MD: Cardin +10 average in last 3 polls
MT: Tester + 6 average in last 3 polls
PA: Casey + 10 average in last 5 polls, but only +5 in last poll
RI: Whitehouse + 6 average in last 5 polls

And then there are 5 races that Real Clear Politics calls tossups:

MO: McCaskill +2 average in last 5 polls, including +9 in most recent poll
NJ: Menendez +4 average in last 7 polls
OH: Brown +6 average in last 4 polls
TN: Ford +1 average in last 6 polls
VA: Allen +5 average in last 5 polls

Of course, the need for the Democrats to win only 8 of these 9 seats assumes that Lieberman won’t win his election and decide to caucus with the Republicans. Lieberman has averaged a 12 point lead over Lamont in the past 5 polls, and I don't trust him.

[dicknbush]

1. I won't believe any of this stuff until I see.......

HASTERTS FAT ASS WADDELING OFF THE PODIUM AFTER HANDING THE GAVEL OVER TO SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE PELOSI! THEN I WILL CRACK OPEN A VERY EXPENSIVE BOTTLE OF CHAMPAGNE AND SEND A LETTER OFF TO MY REPS DEMANDING THAT THEY FILE ARTICLES OF IMPEACHEMNT AGAINST BUSH AND CHENY SIMULTAENOUSLY! THEN I WILL BELIEVE ALL THE POLLS.

[Time for change]

3. Well, we certainly can't afford to get complacent about this

But that's not going to stop me from enjoying this.

[speedoo]

2. Of those 9 senate seats, I feel we will win at least 8. And Webb ...

could make it 9.

As for LIEberman, could he be recalled by CT voters if he decides to caucus with the rethugs? Certainly such a decision on his part would change a lot of Dem and independent voters' minds.

[Time for change]

4. They certainly look well poised to do that

As for Lieberman, I've heard that argument,but most of his votes will be coming from Republicans. So, it seems to me that most of them wouldn't be too upset if he switched. I hadn't thought about a recall. Has that ever happened as a result of a Senator or Congressperson switching parties? I knnow that in the good majority of cases they are able to do that with impumity.