Krugman: Republican majority will end on Election Day

[cynatnite]

Paul Krugman believes that absolute Republican rule in Congress is at an end, in a column that will appear in Friday's edition of New York Times.

"The conventional wisdom says that the Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives next month, but only by a small margin," writes Krugman. "I've been looking at the numbers, however, and I believe this conventional wisdom is almost all wrong."

Citing recent polls, ongoing troubles in Iraq, and the "sudden realization by many voters that the self-proclaimed champions of moral values are hypocrites," Krugman foresees that "the permanent Republican majority will end in a little over three weeks."

Some still await a Karl Rove October surprise, the subject of a recent article in RAW STORY, but Krugman says that "unless the Bush administration is keeping Osama bin Laden in a freezer somewhere, a majority of Americans will vote Democratic this year."

http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Krugman_Republican_majority_will_end_on_1012.html

[barb162]

1. I love Krugman

[SharonAnn]

2. Even if they are keeping Osama bin Laden in a freezer, the majority

of Americans will vote Democratic this year.

I don't think that Osama bin Laden's "convenient" death will fool anybody. After all, these are the people who talked Foley into staying in congress because they wanted to retain power.

[Jackpine Radical]

3. Viewer 1: "Omigod, lookit Osama's face! Is that radiation burn?"

Viewer 2: Nope. Freezer burn.

[cal04]

4. Will the Levee Break?

(snip)
But what’s that howling sound? Every poll taken this month shows the Democrats with a double-digit lead in the generic ballot question, in which voters are asked which party they support in this election. The median Democratic lead is 14 points.

And here’s the thing: because there are many districts that the G.O.P. carried by only moderately large margins in recent elections, a large Democratic surge — one only a bit bigger than that needed to take the House at all — would sweep away many Republicans holding seats normally considered safe. If the actual vote is anything like what the polls now suggest, we’re talking about the Democrats holding a larger majority in the House than the Republicans have held at any point since their 1994 takeover.

So if the Democrats win, they’ll probably have a substantial majority. Whether they’ll be able to keep that majority is another question. But be prepared to wake up less than four weeks from now and learn that everything you’ve been told about American politics — liberalism is dead, whoever controls the South controls Washington, only Republicans know “the way to win” — is wrong. (Are we seeing the birth of a new New Deal coalition, in which the solid Northeast takes the place of the solid South?)

The storm may yet weaken. The Iowa Electronic Markets, in which people bet real money on election outcomes, still give Republicans a roughly 40 percent chance of keeping control of both houses of Congress. If that happens, will it mean that Republican control is permanent after all?
No.

[EST]

5. Krugman seems to be right--every single time.

I agree with his estimate, even though it may be composed of a fair amount of wishful thinking.

[cynatnite]

6. It's so easy to get caught up in the thinking...

but I keep remembering 2004. I was so sure...and when Kerry lost, it was such a kick to the gut. I know about the voting irregularities...but it sure didn't do much to help with the pain.

This time I'm treading carefully.

[AspenRose]

9. I don't blame you. That's wise.

eom

[EST]

12. As am I

I was not "so sure" but, like you, I suffered a real kick in the gut when Kerry resigned.
All the evidence was there. I had worked my ass off, as had so many others. The aggregate of all the polls had Kerry pegged as the ultimate victor.

It took two months before I could do any posting on DU.
However, this time the scene has changed radically and, hopefully, any really large fraud will be jumped on and hounded to the ground.

[Strelnikov_]

7. Significant Quote

No. Bear in mind that the GOP isn't in trouble because of a string of bad luck. The problems that have caused Americans to turn on the party, from the disaster in Iraq to the botched response to Katrina, from the failed attempt to privatize Social Security to the sudden realization by many voters that the self-proclaimed champions of moral values are hypocrites, are deeply rooted in the whole nature of Republican governance. So even if this surge doesn't overtop the levee, there will be another surge soon.

Pretty much what I have been saying. If they barely hold on this election, where do they go from here?

We have $6/gal gas (if not rationing), deep recession and an embarrassing retreat from Iraq all on tap for the next two years.
Combine that with a sense of vote theft in the majority of the electorate (which is the only way they can maintain at this point).

And you think people are pissed now . .

[lordsummerisle]

8. 3 weeks is a very long time in poliitics

especially with an aircraft carrier steaming towards the gulf...

[AspenRose]

10. Ain't that the truth.

Welcome to DU

[newyawker99]

15. Hi lordsummerisle!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[LaPera]

11. We've got to get out the vote!

[BlooInBloo]

13. For fuck's sakes - doesn't ANYONE play football anymore?

Or do Democrats really play nothing but "sports" like ultimate and badminton?

ON ANY GIVEN SUNDAY ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.

The game hasn't even fucking started, and yet everyone's declaring it over. Sheesh.

[BootinUp]

14. I'm still nervous

I shouldn't have watched so much garbage cable tv news yesterday. One issue that is being horribly distorted is the Clinton North Korea record. The Republican party talking points are bombarding the airwaves and I don't see anyone refuting them or any tv host asking the right questions about the state of the plutonium and reactors from 1994-2002. Of course this excludes Keith Olberman.


And what if our poll numbers are at their peak and start dropping back, as Krugman notes in the article we need to win by about 7% overall vote to take the house because of how our votes are concentrated in some areas.


:scared: