Will the Gerrymander Bite the Repugs in the A#$?

[JCMach1]

Stay with me for a second here...

As district creating computer software became more sophisticated, where Republicans controlled the process, they redistricted with as many Republican seats as possible. To eliminate Democratic seats, the game was to pack as many Dems into one district as possible. So, you end up with minority Dem districts and Democratic super-majority districts. Thus, Democratic dominance of Congress ended after the 1994 election.

We could see a different dynamic at work in this race, because in order to make so many Republican districts, they also had to create what I call 55% districts. On appearance these would be 'safe' Repug districts. In an ordinary year the Republican should be able to carry 50%+. However, this year might be different. If national rancor over Congress makes a shift of 5%+, then many of these seats shift to Dem. This seems to be what is happening in some of the recent polls already.

It's ironic, because in the gerrymandering game they had to give up a large number of truly safe Repug seats to create a majority in the first place. These 5% seats could come back to bite them in the rear... If the Dems take control, this will be one of the factors..

Call it REVENGE OF THE GERRYMANDER



Some examples of results of seats that are in this boat

Florida 13 Katherine Harris Republican 2002 Running Katherine Harris (R) 55%
Robert Anderson (L) 4%
Jan Schneider (D) 45%

Colorado 7 Bob Beauprez Republican 2002 Running Bob Beauprez (R) 55%
Dave Thomas (D) 43%
Clyde Harkins (I) 2%

Arizona 8th Jim Kolbe Republican 1984 Running
Jim Kolbe (R) 60%
Eva Bacal (D) 36%


North Carolina 11 Charles Taylor Republican 1990 Running Charles Taylor (R) 55%
Patsy Keever (D) 45%

Note, I picked state examples where Bush ran well on the Presidential side of the ballot.

There are MANY examples like this... in fact, almost every pick-up district Dems seem to be leading in the polls at this point.

[Ignacio Upton]

1. I think this is why Tom DeLay had a close race in 2004

Against Richard Morrison, who was considered an unknown until rumors of DeLay's corruption circulated (these are RUMORS, not indictments, as DeLay wasn't indicted for another full year.) I think that part of the reason why the race was so close, in addition to DeLay's corruption, was because he took Republican votes out of his district in order to help collegues.

[JCMach1]

2. bingo... and keep in mind the shift doesn't have to be SO large

scandal can easily shift 5%. That was the X-factor the softward couldn't predict. In fact, it could lead to a Dem landslide of large proporptions. I would temper that optimism with the cold water--

DIEBOLD and dirty tricks

But even with those, it looks like the swing will still be enough to give the Dems control.

[DeepModem Mom]

3. Well done! K&R

[Lexingtonian]

4. yep

I think in the jargon it's called 'gerrymander backfire'. It happened to Georgia Democrats in 1994- they controlled the state government and gerrymandered themselves 6 or 7 of the 9 seats the state had, winning them in 1992. In 1994 they lost all but 2.

Democrats are more tightly concentrated than Republicans, so the effect is not quite as strong in our direction as in theirs. But we tend to have two-election cycles, in which the Presidential year election extends the results of the midterms. One can only generalize at peril, but to me Republicans have tended to get their gains essentially in the midterms and nearly stagnate the Presidential year election. Democrats seem to split gains about evenly between the two.

Maybe this is because as a pattern, in the present political era, people flock to Republicans quickly but also seem to sour on them quickly. Conversely they take a lot of time to come to like the new version of Democrats, but then they seem to stick with them through hell and high water.

[On the Road]

5. Remembering 1998,

I have been skeptical of the projections of 30-seat Democratic pickups.

NOW I see how it could happen. This is a new one on me.

[JCMach1]

14. Projections mean nothing until election day...

[On the Road]

15. That's Why I'm Still Not a Believer Yet

I don't know how much of the poll numbers reflect conversion to the Democrats and how much simply reflect embarrassment among peole who will still vote Republican.

[radfringe]

6. there has to be a better way to create the districts

historical background: the Senate and House system was created out of a compromise. Small states wanted equal representation on a state-by-state basis (ie same number for each state) larger states wanted it based on population. Thus we ended up with a Senate and 2 senators from each state, and the House with the number of reps based on population.

every 10 years a census is taken and based on population changes the number and location of house seats is determined by increase/decrease in population

to determine these new districts - the legislators start looking at maps and voter registration affiliation and this is where the gerrymandering starts

which areas within a given locality lean more to which party is the determining factor.

you could argue that if a given area has more Martian-liberty registered voters then a Martian-Liberty representive is more "representative" of that area. On the other hand - it carves out 'safe seats' and squashes competition from other parties.

might be a crazy idea - but instead of "districts" - open up all house seats within a state for voters. For instance if a state has 5 house seats, let all voters in that state vote for 5 candidates regardless of locality. this eliminates creation of safe seats and opens up the competition giving voters a wider choice

[JCMach1]

8. The software is so powerful today that you could carve a mickey mouse

shaped district of whatever party in Central Florida if you liked... it's that sophisticated.

It seems like the pugs have manipulated things too far... given-up truly safe seats for marginally safe seats.

In years where there is not big discontent, or a big issue (this year Bush himself) the game shifts. Those conservative leaning Indys and more liberal Repugs can peel away.

Perhaps the law should require Squares and Minority districts. But, even that can be manipulated with the software. :(

[wakeme2008]

7. Well done and Nom, Plus add in Foley and the book "Tempting Faith"

While the Fundes probably will not vote for a Dem, the book and Foley IMHO will have a lot of them seating out this election.

[JCMach1]

9. You don't need the Repugs in these districts only the right-leaning

and truly indpendent registered voters...

[wakeme2008]

10. Yes but if you are losing your "faith base" voters

which the computer models said would ALWAYS vote your way, and they just do not vote, that sends the computer models off big time IMHO :)

[JCMach1]

11. Other interesting polls along these lines

...In 1990, 1998 and 2002, only about 15 percent of voters indicated that they were casting their midterm vote "against the President." In 1994, the great anti-Clinton wave election that sent the GOP into power, 23 percent claimed they were voting against the President. But this year, 36 percent state that their vote is a vote "against the President."

Why does this matter? Two big reasons. One, it shows that Republican efforts to localize these races has failed so far. Indeed, other questions back that up. 55 percent of voters say that party control of Congress matters. Only 44 percent said that in 2002 (and most of those probably supported the GOP). In 1998, an unusually good off-year for Democrats, only 41 percent said party control matters. GOP efforts to go negative on individual candidates may not be enough if the national wave is so big.

The other big reason is motivation. Off-year elections depend heavily on turnout. The GOP's turnout record is impressive, both in Presidential and off-year elections. But when voter anger is so strong the other way, Republican GOTV efforts matter little in the end... http://www.themoderatevoice.com/posts/chain_1158291092.shtml

[wakeme2008]

12. And the reason this great post has not hit the Greatest Page

is :shrug:

[JCMach1]

13. Always posting overnight...

:( It's afternoon here in the UAE