(Charlie) Cook: Dems could pick up 7 senate seats

[bluestateguy]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/10/13/104613/82

Charlie Cook is now reporting that, because of current events and low GOP voter motivation, a seven seat pickup in the Senate is a distinct possibility:

It is no longer far-fetched to see how Democrats could win six Republican seats, or even seven -- which would be necessary for them to gain a majority if they lose one of their own seats...
Four weeks is a lifetime in politics and the tide still could shift. But for Republicans to salvage their majorities in the House and Senate, quite a bit would have to change.

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[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. I Want Every Republican To Go Out And Vote on November 8th.

"Charlie Cook is now reporting that, because of current events and low GOP voter motivation, a seven seat pickup in the Senate is a distinct possibility:"

[Deep13]

2. It is important for the process for Rs to turn out on Nov. 8.

If they put their mind to it, it will be a Wednesday to remember!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. We Should Offer To Take Our Republican Neighbors To Vote On 11/8

eom

[Deep13]

4. We should if we really believe in democracy.

To ease the workload we should split up the job and drive Democrat neighbors to the polls on the 11/7.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. That's A Good Point

Dems vote on 11/7 ... Republicans vote on 11/8

[Jackpine Radical]

8. Yes, it really makes a lot more sense to do it that way.

Aftrer all, it gives the voting machine maintenance people time to re-program the machines from the special program for Democrats to the special program for Republicans.

[Jackpine Radical]

7. Let them know in advance that you'll be coming

so they don't screw up & go to the polls a day early or anything.

After they vote on Wednesday we're taking our Republicans to the Jesus Camp Benefit Breakfast--pancakes & sausage on us.

[bluestateguy]

5. Make sure your country club dues are all paid up, otherwise you can't vote

PSA

[ProgressiveEconomist]

9. Given pro-incumbent system bias, and only 15 R seats up for election

to begin with, it's ASTOUNDING that the best scenario Cook foresees well might be possible, and even conservative! IMO, a net gain of anywhere between between 5 and 8 looks feasible.

A net pickup of six (with a D loss in NJ) would require a sweep of 5 "no clear favorite" seats currently held by Republicans, plus Santorum's D-leaning seat, plus a win for Webb over Allen in currently R-leaning Virginia. With a win by Menendez in currently "no clear favorite" NJ, we get to a gain of eight!

I'm using Congressional Quarterly's micropolitical analysis here:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From http://www.cqpolitics.com/risk_rating_senate.html

"From Congressional Quarterly; Bob Benenson, Editor

Balance of Power Scorecard: Senate

*Open seat

Democratic Seats
----------------

9 Safe Democratic
(01) Calif. -- Feinstein
(02) Del. -- Carper
(03) Hawaii -- Akaka
(04) Mass. -- Kennedy
(05) N.D. -- Conrad
(06) N.M. -- Bingaman
(07) N.Y. -- Clinton
(08) Wis. -- Kohl
(09) W.Va. -- Byrd

5 Democrat Favored
(10) Conn. -- Lieberman
(11) Fla. -- Nelson
(12) Mich. -- Stabenow
(13) Minn. -- Dayton*
(14) Vt. -- Jeffords*

3 Leans Democratic
(15) Md. -- Sarbanes*
(16) Neb. -- Nelson
(17) Wash. -- Cantwell

1 No Clear Favorite
(18) N.J. -- Menendez

0 Leans Republican
0 Republican Favored
0 Safe Republican

Republican Seats
----------------
0 Safe Democratic

0 Democrat Favored

1 Leans Democratic
(19) Pa. -- Santorum

5 No Clear Favorite
(20) Mo. -- Talent
(21) Mont. -- Burns
(22) Ohio -- DeWine
(23) R.I. -- Chafee
(24) Tenn. -- Frist*

1 Leans Republican
(25) Va. -- Allen

1 Republican Favored
(26) Ariz. -- Kyl

7 Safe Republican
(27) Ind. -- Lugar
(28) Maine -- Snowe
(29) Miss. -- Lott
(30) Nev. -- Ensign
(31) Texas -- Hutchison
(32) Utah -- Hatch
(33) Wyo. -- Thomas

(For the purposes of this table, the Vermont Senate seat is counted as Democratic. Retiring Sen. James M. Jeffords serves as an Independent, but he is counted as a Democrat since he is allied with the Democrats and caucuses with the party in the Senate. Also, Rep. Bernard Sanders, who is the favorite to succeed Jeffords, serves as an Independent, but he is counted as a Democrat since he is allied with the Democrats and caucuses with the party in the House.)"