On Rove's October surprise:

[Marr]

I do design and advertising for a living. Over lunch today, I was talking with a couple of friends about hype, and how sometimes it actually ends up being counterproductive. Like with the Segway- that thing was hyped intensely, but the hype was centered on *not* revealing what the thing was. The ad campaign inspired all sorts of speculation, everything from "they've made a controlled fusion reaction" to "they've got a teleporter" to... you name it.

When it was finally announced, the reaction was a sort of underwhelming swell of... "oh... it's a scooter".

Anyway, it just struck me that something like that might be used to counter "October surprise" political stunts as well. What do you suppose would happen if Democrats spent a fair amount time framing the October surprise before it's even revealed? You know, speculate openly on what ingeniously diabolical trick Rove is going to pull off this year. Wonder aloud if extending brazen political stunts to international affairs would be criminal, or simply irresponsible.

Talk it up. Talk it up alot. Create a buzz of expectation. Then let the GOP reveal their surprise to the anxious critics. Do you suppose something like that would work?

[EVDebs]

1. The USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier battle group being sent into Straits

of Hormuz is already a topic on DU.

[Fovea]

2. I think it is already a done deal

and a lot of speculation has run through the inter-tubes on this very subject.
I think that there is a meme out there already, and when Rove's little shock and awe
show starts, the counter frame is already in place.

But don't let that stop you from spreading among your peeps.

[Marr]

5. It's common discussion among political junkies, sure-

but not out the "mainstream" discussion, if you know what I mean. What I'm wondering about is a more broad campaign. Say, if you had as many Democrats as possible who get regular face time on television, interjecting such a question at every opportunity.

Just speculation here, really. If you could get your mostly apolitical Joe 6-pack to anxiously anticipate a big media surprise, it'd do more than just innoculate him to it's effects. It'd very likely make him resentful of the surprise itself.

[Fovea]

13. I was in deep red missouri earlier this week

and heard a lot of road house chatter.
There is deep distrust of Bush and Rove in little dixie.
These guys and their local toadies kicked some 90k missourians off
medicaide.

They are so f'ed.

[Tarc]

3. Honestly, Rove is overrated

He was and probably still is a master strategist, but I think after all the Libby/Plame shit, he's been kept at arm's length from the inner workings of the White House. Ever since all that broke, the overall GOP "strategy" has been rudderless and all over the map.

Not saying that based on that we should take the upcoming elections as a given and rest easy of course, but "Bush's Brain" is really largely ineffective these days.

[Marr]

7. I agree with you, actually.

I think he's been vastly overrated as an individual, especially when you consider the advantages he enjoys (media support, big money, political infrastructure, not to mention illegal domestic spying). The fact that they've still had to essentially steal these electoral wins says alot about Rove's "genius".

So I agree that Rove himself is vastly overrated, but the effectiveness of the right-wing propaganda machine isn't.

[elperromagico]

8. The one thing that truly distinguishes Rove as a strategist

is his total lack of a moral compass. Don't expect a deathbed apology from ol' Karl; he loves the mud and he'll play in it every chance he gets.

[elperromagico]

4. Rove would have to cook up something really extraordinary

to distract from the Foley story. Even the North Korean nuclear test could only distract momentarily.

[Pale Blue Dot]

6. There never was an "october surprise"

Rove raised the specter of it merely to frighten the "maverick Republicans" and some Democrats into supporting the Torture Bill.

Having accomplished that, he's got nothing left.

[WillyT]

9. Funny You Should Mention That...

I swear, I was just scouring Freeperville looking for signs of panic (only found piles of denial), but I saw this article from NewsMax they were drooling over a while back, and thought, "My... What a difference a couple of weeks make?"

Article published Sept 21st, one week later Foley resigns. The rest is history being written.

Rove article Newsmax (sorry): http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/9/20/141615.shtml?s=lh

And BTW - Is this NewsMax pop-up some sort of coded message? :evilgrin:

[Nite Owl]

10. At this point I'm not sure any

surprise will work for them. If they try to scare us with something the reaction now might be that it is there fault, they failed. They just have nothing left, they seem to have pulled the last rabbit out of the hat.

[90-percent]

11. Attacking Iran

Attacking Iran would be taken by ALL OF AMERICA as nothing more than a desperate political ploy by the Republicans. It would backfire into impeachments post election and insure a Dem landslide, as all of America would realize this admin is using our brave and patriotic service person's LIVES as a political tool to get elected!

It's becoming clear to ALL OF AMERICA how much they've been lied to and how all of the Republican moves have been TOTALLY POLITICAL, at the expense of the common good.

American's can be pretty slow, but they are smarter than the Repub strategists give them credit for. The common consciousness running through the whole electorate, if they pulled this Iran October surprise, would b; "just how stupid do these Republicans think we are?"

-85% Jimmy

[mdmc]

12. "I think the Dems can still win, even factoring in Rove's Oct. suprise."

They probably have Bin Laden, since the Bushes and Bin Ladens have always been so close. But I still think we will win.

spin like that?