Freeper PANIC ATTACK: Freeper SurveyUSA pollster reports GOP losing

[Grebrook]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1720549/posts

So apparently the guy that made the thread is an actual pollster, and is verifying the results first hand. If a lunatic from the Free Republic can testify to the facts that there are fewer Republicans voting in this election than Democrats and even fewer calling themselves Republicans, and one seat has flipped while three others have moved rapidly towards the Dems, looks like the GOP is in serious trouble.

[aquart]

1. Doesn't look like trouble. Looks like heaven.

[magellan]

2. Too bad

Looks like all they've got left is Diebold and whatever terra alerts Rove can muster between now and election day.

Oh wait -- that's all they ever had.

[w4rma]

3. So the director of election polling for SurveyUSA is a Freeper.

And has been a Freeper since 1998.

[Emit]

4. My first thought, too -- looks like he's been there since...

VeritatisSplendor
Since Aug 12, 1998

Born 1961 Married, 4 kids (17 14 9 4) PhD Math (Logic) Software developer MIT grad Chess master. Currently Director of Election Polling for SurveyUSA.

http://www.freerepublic.com/~veritatissplendor/

[w4rma]

5. It explains their poor grammar: "Madrid gets 79% of Democrat votes."

DemocratIC votes.

I'll bet it explains some other things too.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

10. That's just a standard-issue freeper slur.

They know it annoys us. That's why they do it.

[ClintonTyree]

6. I'd LOVE to be able to check his creds.........

I'm willing to wager that he's been "less than truthful" about his credentials, at least as posted on FR. Call it a hunch. :shrug:

[Caution]

15. Easy enough to check. Google search on

"director election polling surveyusa"

His info pops right up, his creds are legit, he's published many times over, writes a ton of reviews for amazon, is a big Bob Dylan fan (ummmmm...helllllo) and a big Harry Potter fan (again....helllllllo).

He is also verifiably a chess master.

He may be a brilliant guy mathematically, but anyone who frequents freeper-ville has some deep seated issues if you ask me.

I think i'll fire off an email to dailykos about this guy working for a national polling organization in a very high level capacity while participating in an incredibly rabid partisan discussion forum.

If this guy can't make the numbers look good for the GOP, they've got real problems

[cboy4]

7. What kind of site is that freerepublic? It looks like it's maintained by a

second grader.

All plain text, primitive layout, no color on the site. What is this, 1952?

Then again, idiots really wouldn't know any better.

[Phrogman]

8. LOL, they're unaware how crude that website looks..

AOL types for sure.

[soothsayer]

11. They always complain about the looks of our site. Silly freeps!

To each their own.

[Phrogman]

19. DU is slick and attractive, its a very well done website.

Congrats.

[WoodrowFan]

14. they're very proud of it!

the freeper founder, JimRob, supposedly wrote the software himself and is VERY proud of it! Kind of tells you a lot about him and the freepers in general, doesn't it?

[tanyev]

16. I've given up on trying to follow their conversations within threads.

It's a mess.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. The Hardest Thing About A Political Poll

The hardest thing about a poll is determining the composition of the electorate. If you're not correct on the percentages of Reps, Dems, and Indy that will be making up the electorate your poll is worthless...

Most of the predictions of Democratic success in November are based on the belief that Dems will show up in droves and the Reps will stay home...

[Stockholm]

12. LOL - Attack the messenger if you don´t like the message...

He should know better than to try and bring bad news into that environment. Those people are not interested in facts or scientific methods, their entire political foundation is faith and by the look of it, that is all that is left for them.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Some Times Some Of Us Are Like That Too...

We need to include everything in our calculations; even the hard facts we don't like...

[Stockholm]

17. If the poll artist in this case is a freeper

then I am pretty sure he has done his outmost to double check the numbers since they draw a pretty depressing picture for the perverts.

[Gman]

18. Your title misses the importance of that FR thread...

There is one really big nugget good information in that thread. The good news is that SurveyUSA apparently is historically about the most reliable poll going. There are two Excel spreadsheets at the SurveyUSA homepage that analyze the final results of all the polls in the 2004 election. The first one here, ranks the accuracy of the different polls for all races and the other ranks the accuracy of different polls for 2004 president, senate and governor races. Note you need Excel or a viewer and a basic statistics understandint to read and understand these. I highly suggest you read the comments in cells AF112, AF113 and AF114 that explain the methodology used. Pay special attention the comment about Who is Mosteller? This gives an explaination about the commission that was formed after Truman won in 1948 to find out how the polls could be so wrong and how the methodology that came out of that commission was used in the analysis of the other polls' results.

And FR poster VeritatisSplendor shows these credentials in his profile: "Born 1961 Married, 4 kids (17 14 9 4) PhD Math (Logic) Software developer MIT grad Chess master. Currently Director of Election Polling for SurveyUSA." This guy is no garden variety FR dumb ass. He knows what he's doing. He posted the following when someone used the old complaint that the poll was too weighted toward Democrats to be accurate:

To: Henry Wilson

I'm the guy who did this poll and wrote the text reproduced in the above post. The "likely voter model" did not change. It was exactly the same model as we used in the previous poll. We do not "weight to party", we rely on self-described party affiliation (NOT registration), and we saw that more people were identifying themselves as Democrats and fewer as Republicans. It's not a "model", or something we put in to the data -- it's what we observed while using the exact same methodology as before.

Not good news for the GOP I'm afraid, but there's still plenty of time for things to change.

10 posted on 10/16/2006 7:28:08 PM CDT by VeritatisSplendor

Personally, based on the Excel spreadsheet, I'll be watching the SurveyUSA poll most of all.

[KittyWampus]

20. thanks and duly noted.

[OzarkDem]

21. Harry Reid! Harry Reid! Harry Reid!

That's the last card they have to play. Let's hope they all end up behind bars.