Charlie Cook- GOPU To Go Down Is Ashes -Fifty Seat Loss In Not Impossible

[DemocratSinceBirth]

WASHINGTON - Election Day is three weeks from now, and unless something happens fast, this will be one of those once- or twice-in-a-generation elections when a party enjoys unbelievable gains or endures horrendous losses that prove to be the exceptions to Tip O'Neill's adage that "all politics is local." In midterm elections, Democrats last suffered such a defeat in 1994; for Republicans, it was 20 years before that in the Watergate election of 1974.


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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15306724/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. i'll bump my own post once and only once

eom

[Ryano42]

5. BUMP SQUARED!

Words to FIGHT and VOTE by!!! :patriot:

[lumberjack_jeff]

2. The repubs with the most to lose, lost the most.

Second and third tier races imprortant
A Democracy Corps (D) survey (PDF) of 1,200 likely voters in the 49 most-vulnerable GOP-held districts released on Friday captured it best. The poll showed that while the 20 or so Republican seats most at risk had not moved much in recent weeks, there was a meltdown for the GOP in second- and third-tier races, which makes a certain amount of sense. In a highly adverse political environment, contested Republican incumbents with the most points to lose -- in terms of both job approval and actual support -- lost the most. Races that were already very close or where the races have been engaged for some time didn't have far to drop. Although the survey was taken by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps (D), which is headed up by Stan Greenberg and James Carville, pollsters in both parties have been following their surveys closely, particularly because this survey measures the actual ballot tests by naming the candidates running in each district instead of using a hypothetical generic ballot test like most other national surveys.

While many attribute the Republican freefall to the scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley and his e-mails to congressional pages, it really was no more than the straw that broke the camel's back. The seeds of Republicans' problems were planted long before publication of the congressman's e-mails to pages. The war in Iraq, Hurricane Katrina, other congressional scandals, federal budget spending and deficits, stem-cell research, Terri Schiavo and a multitude of other factors had been feeding the creation of an undertow for the GOP that goes back over a year. The "time for a change" dynamic that worked against Democrats in 1994 gradually came into place, fueled by all those factors mentioned above, and now it would probably take some huge event to alter its course.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

6. All good news, but then I got to the end....

"...and now it would probably take some huge event to alter its course" :scared:

Not really scared, though. Already booked Nov. 7 to GOTV.

[Justice Is Comin]

3. Have a bump on me.

There is so much good news, it's hard to get around to it all quick enough.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Am Cautiously Optimistic....

Barring an unforseen event I see the Dems recapturing the House and possibly the Senate.


I guess the wild cards are Osama's status, North Korea, and a possible terrorist attack.

[lumberjack_jeff]

12. I'm getting perilously close to irrational exhuberance. n/t

[dogday]

4. I like it

one can only hope.....

[grytpype]

8. Meanwhile, Duhbya remains in his bubble of denial.

I can't wait to wipe the smirk off the chimp' face in November.

[ToeBot]

9. I'm beginning to think expectations are being manipulated

To what end, I couldn't even speculate. Or maybe I just don't trust anything the media or their republican taskmasters say or do.

[WI_DEM]

10. You know all this optimism is setting us for a fall because if we

don't win the majority or gain maybe a small majority the pundits will call it a GOP victory! I'm cautiously optimistic, but don't think we should count our chickens before they hatch.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I Have Never Endorsed The Diebold Theory Or "Black Box" Voting

But if the polls on election day look anything like they do now and we don't make big gains my suspicion meter will be astronomic.

[Justice Is Comin]

24. It doesn't matter to me if we win by half a vote.

When we get the subpoena and the committee chairs, get the hell out of the way. Conyers and Waxman will take it from there.

[Armstead]

11. Since he often tends towards the GOP view, this is probably gooid news

[LondonReign2]

13. We aren't there yet

Yes, we have the wind at our backs, but we have a long way to go. CQPolitics is basically showing a dead heat for control of both chambers at the moment here: http://www.cqpolitics.com/06map.html (Awesome map BTW).

We'll have to sweep the 4 Senate races CPQ is showing as toss-ups in order to get a Cheney-free majority -- and then you may still have to worry about Lieberman or the other DINOs. The House is definitely moving the right direction, but again we need to take the majority of toss-up races.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Here Are The Odds At Intrade.

This is where the pedal meets the road... People putting there money where their mouths are:

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[ThomWV]

17. Do You Believe This Betting Has Any Real Meaning?

As a predictive indicator?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Yes...

There's a theory in social science that as more people think an event will happen it is more likely the event will happen. That's why you have odds.. For instance betting underdogs sometimes win but they often do not.

I do think if you follow that site closely between now and election day you will find the odds correspond nicely with the respective party's chances.

I think I'm going to put some money on a Dem House and maybe a Dem Senate.

[janx]

16. This is being compared to the "Republican Revoluntion"

of 1994...wonder what the polls were like three weeks before that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Remember That Election.

It wasn't a surprise. Most "in" folks saw it coming but of course the Dems were trying to spin it the way the Republicans are now. I would put the caveat that the magnitude of it was unexpected. It was a literal tsunami- 54 House seats and many Senate Seats.

Oh, the Dem polls then still weren't as bad as the Rep polls now.

[oc2002]

23. yeah, but the Repugs then had more money and did not have rigged districts

The fight now for the Dems is twice as steep, and it would be a major major victory to win 15 seats now in the house than it was back then, to win 50 seats..


THATS WHAT REPUBLICANS HAVE CREATED. a wall and moat against such an election as we have now. thier last defence is quite formidable.

[Justice Is Comin]

25. Amy from the Cook Report said the indicators are as

bad--and get this--or worse for republicans than they were for us in 1994. They did a micro and a macro analysis, and they are historically very very accurate.

[RedEarth]

18. Folks let keep up the heat. ..volunteer. ..donate. ..do whatever you can

....where ever you live........

[oc2002]

21. these guys are talking out of thier asses, they do not know anything.

They keep exagerating the possible wins by Dems is not supported by the massive re-districting and the dems not being able to match the repugs in spending.

What this all means is that by exagerating now, they can claim the republicans won by not losing as bad as predicted..

[chill_wind]

22. Election Central-- latest polls:

Latest Polls
Race Pollster Released Candidates
PA-SEN Rasmussen Oct 18 Casey (D) 54%, Santorum (R) 41%
AZ-GOV SurveyUSA Oct 17 Napolitano (D) 56%, Munsil (R) 37%
AZ-SEN SurveyUSA Oct 17 Kyl (R) 48%, Pederson (D) 43%
OH-SEN NYT/CBS Oct 17 Brown (D) 48%, DeWine (R) 34%
OH-GOV NYT/CBS Oct 17 Strickland (D) 53%, Blackwell (R) 29%
AZ-SEN N. Ariz. U. Oct 17 Kyl (R) 49%, Pederson (D) 33%
SC-GOV SurveyUSA Oct 17 Sanford (R) 56%, Moore (D) 41%
OH-02 SurveyUSA Oct 17 Schmidt (R) 48%, Wulsin (D) 40%
FL-05 SurveyUSA Oct 17 Brown-Waite (D) 55%, Russell (R) 42%
OH-SEN Univ. of Cinc. Oct 17 Brown (D) 52%, DeWine (R) 45%
OH-GOV Univ. of Cinc. Oct 17 Strickland (D) 52%, Blackwell (R) 38%
Congress Gallup Oct 17 Approve 23%, Disapprove 71%
Bush Rasmussen Oct 17 Approve 42%, Disapprove 55%
WY-At Large Mason-Dixon Oct 17 Cubin (R) 44%, Trauner (D) 37%
CA-GOV Rasmussen Oct 17 Schwarzenegger (R) 49%, Angelides (D) 40%
GA-GOV Rasmussen Oct 17 Perdue (R) 58%, Taylor (D) 32%
MD-GOV Rasmussen Oct 17 O'Malley (D) 50%, Ehrlich (R) 44%
OH-SEN Quinnipiac Oct 17 Brown (D) 53%, DeWine (R) 41%
Congress Gallup Oct 17 Approve 23%, Disapprove 71%
Bush Zogby Oct 16 Approve 37%, Disapprove 63%
MN-06 Star Tribune Oct 16 Wetterling (D) 48%, Bachmann (R) 40%
WY-SEN Mason-Dixon Oct 16 Thomas (R) 67%, Groutage (D) 26%
IL-GOV Glengariff (R) Oct 16 Blagojevich (D) 39%, Topinka (R) 30%
MN-02 SurveyUSA Oct 16 Kline (R) 50%, Rowley (DFL) 42%
AK-GOV Rasmussen Oct 16 Palin (R) 47%, Knowles (D) 40%
CA-50 SurveyUSA Oct 16 Bilbray (R) 49%, Busby (D) 46%
AZ-05 SurveyUSA Oct 16 Hayworth (R) 48%, Mitchell (D) 45%
WA-SEN SurveyUSA Oct 16 Cantwell (D) 51%, McGavick (R) 43%
Bush CNN Oct 16 Approve 36%, Disapprove 61%
NM-01 SurveyUSA Oct 16 Madrid (D) 53%, Wilson (R) 45%
KS-GOV SurveyUSA Oct 16 Sebelius (D) 55%, Barnett (R) 42%
PA-08 Grove (D) Oct 16 Murphy (D) 44%, Fitzpatrick (R) 40%
NY-20 Grove (D) Oct 16 Sweeney (R) 42%, Gillibrand (D) 41%
CT-05 Grove (D) Oct 16 Murphy (D) 45%, Johnson (R) 40%
CT-04 BPB (D) Oct 16 Farrell (D) 44%, Shays (R) 41%
NY-GOV Siena Oct 16 Spitzer (D) 68%, Faso (R) 22%
NY-SEN Siena Oct 16 Clinton (D) 59%, Spencer (R) 32%
Bush Rasmussen Oct 16 Approve 42%, Disapprove 55%
MD-SEN Rasmussen Oct 16 Cardin (D) 50%, Steele (R) 43%
OH-SEN Rasmussen Oct 16 Brown (D) 46%, DeWine (R) 41%

http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/

[ginnyinWI]

26. I think I'm finally eady to get excited!

So many people whose word I trust are saying the same thing.

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[renate]

27. OMG I love that title

"The blue wave of the future is clear"

:woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo: